Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu
Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
1–10 of 221 posts
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#2I don't like the use of the word "predictable".
I would qualify this populist uprising as a Black Swan[0], and as Taleb describes in his book, one of the common reactions to a black swan is to rationalize it's obvious predictability after the fact.
Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? I don't know. By and large most of us did not predict it, so I'm not so sure. Only with hindsight is this outcome "obviously" predictable.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#3For those who don't want to click, here's the abstract:
> Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to the societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight. The first has been predominant in Latin America, and the second in Europe. I argue that these different reactions are related to the relative salience of different types of globalization shocks.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#4For those who don't want to click, here's the abstract: > Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distin…
Not sure why quote works like this, but it's very difficult to read on a phone.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#5You mean exporting the middle class and then undercutting upward mobility was doomed to face a political backlash? What a surprise.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#6It is too easy to forget that when a person is employed at $100k-$200k per year in the Bay Area, you want things like stopping climate change, more parks, more air, fair treatment, and above all, peace and prosperity.
When making $30k with absolutely zero hope of real increases in Atlanta being a warehouse worker for an industry that's disappearing, the same person would burn all those things down, I would have said to get $10k more per year. Today I would say, getting an extra year at $30k is enough to justify the burnings.
We should think a bit more about Maslow's hierarchy. If you can't give people a decent living first, they will revolt if you try to "make them matter" or try to reach these lofty goals. You might think that wage improvements don't matter if we don't fix the climate, but the exact opposite is true.
I'm not making the point that the climate isn't worth saving, racism doesn't need solving if we can't fix poverty and "underemployment". I'm saying that we won't succeed unless we fix that ... first.
Globalism produces beautiful iPads. But global average wage is $2k ... not per month. Per year. If you're average, working in a non-booming industry, and of course most people are exactly that, that is a terrifying prospect. The sad part is ... yes killing globalization will make us all worse off, in terms of the country's GDP. But it will lessen the gap between the 1% and the 99% (note that 2% is $97k per year, and as such anyone working in the Bay Area in IT is likely at least in the top 2%). Of course, mostly by making the 0.1% - 50% a LOT worse off (that's anyone making less than about 2.6 million per year and more than $56k. Even in the Bay Area, that's probably C-level wages).
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#7I don't like the use of the word "predictable". I would qualify this populist uprising as a Black Swan[0], and as Taleb describes in his book, one of the common reactions to a black swan is to rationalize it's obvious predictability after the fact. Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? I don't know. By a…
> Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable?
Contradicting statements. Believe means somewhat possible. If you assign someone possibility then it's predicted.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#8For those who don't want to click, here's the abstract: > Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distin…
Not sure why quote works like this, but it's very difficult to read on a phone.
HN works like this, and it is a terrible misuse of UI
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#9You mean exporting the middle class and then undercutting upward mobility was doomed to face a political backlash? What a surprise.
Agree 100%
No matter how many ways to justify, the wealth and power enjoyed by a few are simply irrational.
Edit: the wording is difficult, but all replies below have the same idea. Or I should rephrase it to: the absurdity of the wealth and power enjoyed by people grows exponentially with their rank in the social ladder. The ideal probably should quadratically.
Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]
#10It is too easy to forget that when a person is employed at $100k-$200k per year in the Bay Area, you want things like stopping climate change, more parks, more air, fair treatment, and above all, peace and prosperity. When making $30k with absolutely zero hope of real increases in Atlanta being a warehouse worker for an industry that's disappearing, the same person would burn all those things down, I would have said…
Racism and poverty are related.