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Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

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Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#161

Post by denzil_correa »

nnq wrote: post #151
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Yeah, Tesla may fail to ship a safe LIDAR-less car. But the problem of making a self-driving car without LIDAR or something equivalent is awesomely challenging! An I bet Andrej Karpathy will really enjoy working on it. And the tech resulting from this line of work will surely find its way in other things. (I guess the military has wet dreams about this stuff... I mean, even "unsafeness" can become a "feature" here: "…

> but if people ain't dying it means research is not moving fast enough

Could you help me understand this further? It feels quite insensitive to me.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#162

Post by babyrainbow »

Animats wrote: post #152
pkulak wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's unsafe about radar cruise plus lane keep? People act like Tesla is shipping cars that fling themselves into pedestrians at every opportunity. Somehow we all manage to absolve the auto maker when someone with cruise control set on their 1998 Mazda rear ends someone on the freeway. Let's judge Tesla for autonomous safety when they produce an autonomous car.

What's unsafe about radar cruise plus lane keep? It takes longer for a driver to react to a problem in that mode than to react without it.[1][2] There have been full-motion car simulator and test track studies on this. Even with test subjects who are expecting an obstacle to appear, it takes about 3 seconds to react and start to take over vehicle control from lane keeping automation. Full recovery into manual, where…

I am not sure why this tech is acceptable, at all.

People fall asleep even while actively driving the car. How can they be expected to maintain vigil with something like this.

But I guess Tesla is content with ending their responsibility at "Informing the user that they should be vigil at all times, even when car is driving itself", with out considering how feasible it is.

Another funny thing about it is that, earlier, with regular cars, you only had to watch the errors from the other drivers on the road. Now you have to watch other cars and also mistakes made by your own car's AI...

What could go wrong?

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#163

Post by simonh »

gordon_freeman wrote: post #127
ethanhunt_ wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between Tesla and Google is that Tesla actually has to ship these cars to customers right now . Wouldn't LIDAR double the cost of a Tesla right now?

Cost should not be an excuse at the expense of safety. Plain and simple.

If that was true, nobody would ever ship anything to do with safety for less than a million dollars. We make trade-offs between cost and safety all the time. Doctors walk that line day by day, it's a big part of their job. In particular, car safety regulations walk a very fine line between safety and cost. No car regulations require every car to have all and every one of the best and most advanced safety features. If they did, no cars could be sold for less than hundreds of thousands of dollars and they'd all look and perform like blocky vans with great huge crumple zones.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#164

Post by fragmede »

pinouchon wrote: post #154
_ph_ wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know, no car manufacturer ships cars equipped with LIDAR. Nor do they seem to have a camera setup as extensive as Tesla. So I fail to see how Tesla has painted itself into a corner. The worst case is, that they are not reaching full autonomy with the current hardware setup. It certainly would be a big marketing blunder if they don't, but if necessary they can add LIDAR to the production, if they choose to…

I think Nissan has bet that in a few years, LIDAR will be inexpensive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfRqNAhAe6c

They're probably right, since it's been reported that Google's Waymo has achieved just that - press reports from January say $8,000 per sensor which is positively affordable when compared to $75,000 for a competing sensor.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i...

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#165

Post by loa_in_ »

freyir wrote: post #143
pkulak wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I kinda tuned out when you mentioned lidar like it's some requirement for autonomous driving. Lidar is AMAZING for giving press demos on sunny days. For the real world with rain, snow, leaves, plastic bags, etc? Useless. The future is radar + cameras + a LOT of software blood, sweat and tears.

That's like saying our eyes are useless because we can't see in the dark.

You can't really drive in the dark, can you? What if it gets dark for 1 second on a cliffside turn?

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#166

Post by kamaal »

freyir wrote: post #143
pkulak wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I kinda tuned out when you mentioned lidar like it's some requirement for autonomous driving. Lidar is AMAZING for giving press demos on sunny days. For the real world with rain, snow, leaves, plastic bags, etc? Useless. The future is radar + cameras + a LOT of software blood, sweat and tears.

That's like saying our eyes are useless because we can't see in the dark.

Correct, eyes in fact are useless if you can't see in the dark.

Now imagine walking on top of a sky scraper in pitch darkness. Yes your eyes work in light, but in this case you will likely fall to death.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#167

Post by kamaal »

pkulak wrote: post #128
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Sorry, I kinda tuned out when you mentioned lidar like it's some requirement for autonomous driving. Lidar is AMAZING for giving press demos on sunny days. For the real world with rain, snow, leaves, plastic bags, etc? Useless. The future is radar + cameras + a LOT of software blood, sweat and tears.

I will take your self driving car seriously if you can drive it in all conditions in India.

Until then its just an attempt to make something that breaks at the next unanticipated exception.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#168

Post by Matthias247 »

_ph_ wrote: post #133
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

As far as I know, no car manufacturer ships cars equipped with LIDAR. Nor do they seem to have a camera setup as extensive as Tesla. So I fail to see how Tesla has painted itself into a corner. The worst case is, that they are not reaching full autonomy with the current hardware setup. It certainly would be a big marketing blunder if they don't, but if necessary they can add LIDAR to the production, if they choose to…

Shipping hardware that isn't needed is not how automotive engineering works today.

Most automotive projects look like: You want to release a new car model in year X (with is typically around now() + 3-5 years). Then you start a development project exactly for that car, which involves creating roadmaps for the car, creating the architecture, sourcing the components, packaging everything together and testing everything. Most components (including infotainment systems, driver assistance systems, etc). are contracted to sub-suppliers, which develop them especially for that car model (or maybe a range of models from one OEM). At the end of the development cycle you have a car which has exactly one car which has (hopefully) everything that was planned for that model and which will get sold. In parallel the development cycle for the next model begins, where there might be only a minimal reuse from the last one. E.g. it might be decided that one critical driver assistance component is sourced from another supplier, is now working completely different, and requires also changes for the remaining components.

So if you do not intend to upgrade something or reuse it, it just doesn't make sense to include additional hardware for it. We will see the required hardware in cars which also will make use of their functionality.

For Tesla it will be quite interesting if they will really deliver huge autonomous functions on that hardware, or whether we will see a new generation Model S (with overhauled hardware) before anyway. I'm personally pretty sure that we will see new model generations before the software will be on a "fully autonomous" level.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#169

Post by jacquesm »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

> People will die because of this.

And not just drivers of Teslas.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#170

Post by Matthias247 »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

> Prediction: 2020 will be the year the big players have self-driving.

I think that depends on what you mean with self-driving. My prediction is that in 2020 we will have slightly better driver assistance systems. Maybe a lane assist system which won't kill me if I don't babysit it on a road with construction ongoing and multiple lane markings or if corners get too tight. Maybe some limited self-driving, e.g. only available in dedicated areas like highway/autobahn.

Keep in mind that 2020 is 3 years, which is less than the development cycle of a car. Or in other words: If something should get released in 2020 you now would already see it driving around on the roads for first tests.

My personal prediction is that we will see reliable and advanced self-driving technology in mass production cars maybe in 2 full car generations from now - which is 2030.

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