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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#161

Post by pas »

dingaling wrote: post #124
da_n wrote: post #4

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

> May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge May-driven in this instance perhaps but Intelligence-agency steered. Next PM will be under the same incessant pressure. Doesn't really matter which captain is on the bridge, they don't have their hand on the tiller.

That sounds like bullshit. The Parliament is very much on this, you don't need to try to explain it by invoking all-powerful spooks behind the curtains.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#163

Post by tonyedgecombe »

ionised wrote: post #150
matthewmacleod wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Corbyn a weak candidate? He had consistently poor approval ratings in the run-up to the election, and was hampered by having no support from the parliamentary party. I'd argue that he also had rather muddled and inconsistent policies, but that's open to interpretation. Austerity is not a good solution for the future Completely agreed, but I don't think that the correct response is that kind of leftism.

Idealogues on the right don't think there is room for any kind of leftism, which will be their undoing.

That applies to both sides.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#164

Post by tonyedgecombe »

mamon wrote: post #102
lyschoening wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest projections have them at 42.4% of the vote vs Labour's 40.1%. They do have 48.5% of the seats because of an unfair system.

There's always a tension between fairness and stability. In a perfectly fair system you can end up with dozens of small parties, each having small number of people in parliament, struggling to find majority for a government (see last elections in Netherlands). That's why some voting systems are designed to give a winning party some premium over their vote percentage.

As strange as it seems we may not have had brexit if UKIP had had representation proportional to their support. The reason we ended up going down that road is a large number of Tory MPs feared UKIP. In a proportional system that may not have mattered so much.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#165

Post by tonyedgecombe »

moomin wrote: post #148
davidgerard wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but there's the minor problem she's even more out of her depth than May.

The conservatives have a serious problem right now: pragmatism is seen as being ideologically unsound. Look at the amount of briefing against Philip Hammond there's been. We're talking about a fairly competent, pro-Leave chancellor who has merely argued that potential downsides should be evaluated properly before charging ahead. And he's treated like a Traitor To The Cause. The problem being that Conservative MPs can…

Yes, I fully expect them to revert to their old ways and tear themselves apart over Europe.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#166

Post by wowtip »

buserror wrote: post #9

To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…

Democracy needs to get a lot less representative, and a lot more accountability and checks need to be put into place.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#167

Post by tonyedgecombe »

gideonparanoid wrote: post #11
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

There's only two parties - Lib Dems & Greens - which promised a chance to revert Brexit, so I wouldn't expect it to be reversed. A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though. This guide [0] from the BBC might help to understand how coalitions are formed. It's currently looking very tricky as the splits are crazy [1]. [0] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087 [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-…

I'm not sure, I suspect without a big majority May will find it difficult to keep some of the more rabid brexiters in her party under control.

This election was always about the opposition within the Conservative party rather than Labour.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#168

Post by tonyedgecombe »

thinkingemote wrote: post #118
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The main thing with Brexit is that the British people had a referendum about it which decided the matter. The elected politicans need to follow that direction. So it's unlikely that it can be reverted without damaging the system of UK democracy. The lib Dems wanted a second referendum about what it would mean, I think, e.g. soft Vs hard. So it can't really be reversed but the angle can be changed as that has always b…

It can be changed but it would need to be proceeded by a shift in public opinion.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#169

Post by tonyedgecombe »

querulous wrote: post #64
alkonaut wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were to guess - what would be the result of that? Hard to say I assume given we don't even know who will lead the Conservatives to that election, but do you think the Labour bounce was a one off thing or a trend that might see them take even more seats ?

hard to say. there was a narrative that corbyn was unelectable so a revote might get more buy in from his detractors and a more unified labour front theresa may also ran an absolutely terrible campaign and is personally unpopular so if the tories replace her they may do better next time around. it's hard to imagine the tories producing a credible leader on short notice though. most of the plausible candidates will wa…

Yes, leader of the Conservatives could be a surprisingly difficult post to fill.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#170

Post by Eire1916 »

flukus wrote: post #51
kolp wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DUP is a unionist party and is diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.

Hypothetically, Would they accept a united Ireland as part of the UK?

Never! We are Irish. We do not and will not ever accept a king, queen or monarch ruling over us. We are a Republic and would be willing to die for it, and this time go the whole way
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