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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

101–110 of 200 posts

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#101
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious has something like that ever happened. A country was conquered, then won independence and then at a later point, decided to "rejoin" them.

Crimea kind of did that. They were conquered by Russia ~200 years ago, won independence with the Ukraine and then wanted to rejoin with Russia.

[deleted]

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#102
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)

The latest projections have them at 42.4% of the vote vs Labour's 40.1%. They do have 48.5% of the seats because of an unfair system.

There's always a tension between fairness and stability.

In a perfectly fair system you can end up with dozens of small parties, each having small number of people in parliament, struggling to find majority for a government (see last elections in Netherlands).

That's why some voting systems are designed to give a winning party some premium over their vote percentage.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#103
post #9

To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

Why is Corbyn a weak candidate? I don`t get it why left = communism.

Corbyn is a lot like Sanders he can get the youth to vote for some degrees and has good ideas for the majority of a country.

Austerity is not a good solution for the future within the new dawn of technology around the corner (ML/AI driven software)

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#104
post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

I think avoiding coalitions was a side effect rather than a design principle: doesn't FPTP predate political parties in the Commons?

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#105
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious has something like that ever happened. A country was conquered, then won independence and then at a later point, decided to "rejoin" them.

Crimea kind of did that. They were conquered by Russia ~200 years ago, won independence with the Ukraine and then wanted to rejoin with Russia.

It happened thanks to massive deportations of Soviet Union which changed whole social structure of Crimea.

People who got conquered and who rejoined have not a single connection.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#106
post #4

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

I doubt it. May has been on that ticket for years (IIRC 2012?), and the mindset it shared amongst the rest of the party. As someone else has said, Amber Rudd is much the same, in the same way that Michael Gove's replacement in education has been more of the same. I think it's partly ideological, and partly a total lack of understanding of how technology works that leads to it. I've had discussions with people who say…

May will take that ticket to her grave; even as a doddery old peer, she'll be declaring that Something Must Be Done (and then dropping the ball when asked about details).

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#107
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lib Dems were crucified for their vital and successful minority partner in government for 10-15. The UK population wants a dictator, not a grown up concensus. This will be a Tory government with DUP support on confidence and supply

I don't know DUP. What is there view on surveillance?

I have a sinking feeling they would love it all along a new border wall with Eire. :/

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#108
post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

> The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions.

That's a terrible reason for FPTP. As soon as you have a third party, you run the risk of coalitions.

What's so bad about coalitions anyway? Germany is run by coalitions and it's a world economic power.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#109
post #9

To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

I agree on the campaign, someone decided to have 'strong' and 'national' into the campaign slogan, despite the fact it actually didn't work terribly well for the UKIP last time around (nor this time!), and didn't work for the Front National either a few weeks back.

To me, in both cases, it seems the ruling caste has misread the fact most people want to see some real change with some sort of isolationist/nationalist trend...

Her asking for a mandate was laudable mind you, it was clearly needed. However, it now leaves her with nothing to stand on, and especially no weight whatsoever to negotiate that brexit thing. Unfortunately I don't see who can replace her either...

The thing is, on the other side the labour proposals are in some case quite laughable -- but they seems to have inherited a lot of anti-brexiters who decided that it was the least-worst scenario.

I have to say quite a few people I know where very, very confused about who to vote for, there was none of the 'classical' 'generational voting' which seems to have existed before. Even Lib Dem failed to attract people, and I have to say that surprised me a bit, as the 'center' seems to have worked for Macron in france -- perhaps they lacked a figurehead?

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watch out for Angela Rudd. She kept her seat (just) and could be a player.

That's a huge risk though - what would happen if they won an election and their leader lost her seat! There will be a huge push to remove her if (when) there is another election.

Yes, there were huge rumours she was in big trouble. Many recounts. She is on a knife edge.

Her majority, or lack of, would harm her authority. The Tories are all about performance and she simply hadn't performed.

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