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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#131

Post by matthewmacleod »

chris__butters wrote: post #130
matthewmacleod wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even Lib Dem failed to attract people, and I have to say that surprised me a bit, as the 'center' seems to have worked for Macron in france -- perhaps they lacked a figurehead? As a staunch centrist liberal, I'd have to agree I'm surprised :) The lack of a central figure is definitely part of it. Tim Farron is a nice guy, but not much of a political heavyweight unfortunately. I still think they're suffering from the…

I believe that Tim Farron is a great leader and the campaign went well for him, the truth is that his manifesto got lost in the campaign with the Tories and Labour party taking over all media coverage.

That's probably a fairer assessment, yeah. It's a shame, because their manifesto was great.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#132

Post by lostlogin »

lhopki01 wrote: post #121
mamon wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's always a tension between fairness and stability. In a perfectly fair system you can end up with dozens of small parties, each having small number of people in parliament, struggling to find majority for a government (see last elections in Netherlands). That's why some voting systems are designed to give a winning party some premium over their vote percentage.

The supposedly stable system has led to 3 nation elections in 7 years (probably another one this year too) and 2 hung parliaments in the same time. Meanwhile Germany and many other countries have very stable politics with proportional representation.

To add to this, having a system which has to learn to work with other parties, negotiate and compromise is a good thing. MMPs supposed downsides are not necessarily so.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#133

Post by lyso »

HalfwayToDice wrote: post #74

Just a reminder, and I think it's getting lost here in the HackerNews demographic narrative.. but: The Conservatives Won The Election They will be ruling for 5 years, in a coalition with the even more conservative DUP. Labour/progressives are out of power for at least another 5 years. I know it's a bucket of cold water, but I think people aren't facing up to reality after Corbyn did much much better than expected. Bu…

This is not going to be a five year parliament given the outcome. It might not be a five month parliament.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#134

Post by drinchev »

Last season of House of Cards is dangerously close to reality this time.

In US, Trump might loose his presidency. UK is a mess, based on wrong political decisions.

I still wonder "Who is Frank Underwood and what does he win from all of this".

There is nothing unusual about a political scandal, but this time is obvious that the elite is quite power-driven and the society is nothing more than a voting variable in their equation.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#135

Post by lostlogin »

flukus wrote: post #83
theBobBob wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious has something like that ever happened. A country was conquered, then won independence and then at a later point, decided to "rejoin" them.

Crimea kind of did that. They were conquered by Russia ~200 years ago, won independence with the Ukraine and then wanted to rejoin with Russia.

This is a slightly one eyed view of what's going on. What would you call the related events in Ukraine? There are plenty of other invasions that have been called reunifications or similar. Attacking a neighbour is quite different to a two state, democratic decision to join.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#136

Post by lhopki01 »

mathw wrote: post #71
keithpeter wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DUP + Tories could manage a minority government given Sinn Fein's refusal to take up their 7 Westminster seats. I think the voting reflects the general uncertainty about the Brexit process, plus some of the under 30s actually getting out of bed this time... http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/... I actually saw queues outside polling stations yesterday.

I'm a bit wary about the idea of a DUP + Tory agreement, because the DUP must know that the Tory position on Brexit is a huge threat to the stability and peace in Northern Ireland, and a hard border with the Irish Republic would be disastrous.

The DUP want a hard border with the Irish Republic. They specifically don't want any special status for Northern Ireland as they're afraid it would bring Ireland and Northern Ireland closer together.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#137

Post by lhopki01 »

vacri wrote: post #108
radicalbyte wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

> The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. That's a terrible reason for FPTP. As soon as you have a third party, you run the risk of coalitions. What's so bad about coalitions anyway? Germany is run by coalitions and it's a world economic power.

Nothing is wrong with coalitions but they are demonised in the UK as weak and unstable. FPTP is an ancient system from before the time of parties and needs to be reformed.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#138

Post by matthewmacleod »

vacri wrote: post #108
radicalbyte wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

> The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. That's a terrible reason for FPTP. As soon as you have a third party, you run the risk of coalitions. What's so bad about coalitions anyway? Germany is run by coalitions and it's a world economic power.

There can be a sense with coalition government that people are removed from the decisions made behind closed doors - politicians trading off with each other.

I don't accept that myself, but it's ecactly what happens to the Liberal Democrats in 2010 - they entered a coalition, agreed to policies that their voter base didn't accept and paid heavily for the sense of betrayal it fostered.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#139

Post by matthewmacleod »

nostrademons wrote: post #81

Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?

Bit of a split - what I'm hearing is a bit of ballot fatigue with no appetite for a second referendum, combined with a laser-focused campaign from the Conservatives.

It's worth bearing in mind that the 2015 result was a bit of an anomaly for the SNP to say the least. There was no way to move but down - I didn't expect it quite to this degree, but it does look like both Labour and SNP voters have gone blue.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#140

Post by matthewmacleod »

HalfwayToDice wrote: post #74

Just a reminder, and I think it's getting lost here in the HackerNews demographic narrative.. but: The Conservatives Won The Election They will be ruling for 5 years, in a coalition with the even more conservative DUP. Labour/progressives are out of power for at least another 5 years. I know it's a bucket of cold water, but I think people aren't facing up to reality after Corbyn did much much better than expected. Bu…

I am similarly worried about the idea of spinning this as a left-wing win. Yes, much better than expected, but still a loss.

That said, I don't expect a conservative government to stand at all. I'm putting my money on another general election this year.

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