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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#91

Post by mcintyre1994 »

greglindahl wrote: post #90
sqldba wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)

You might have noticed that the last US presidential election was not won by the candidate who had most of the vote. In a similar fashion, the key thing in the UK vote is individual district elections of members of Parliament, not the % of the overall vote.

Well actually I'm fairly sure the parent comment is referring to % of seats - just under half. The tory vote figure I've heard is 43% - so they've outperformed their vote share (which labour and conservatives do consistently under FPTP).

So to the parent: they have less seats - that % was just over 50% before. It's significant because they've been 20%+ ahead in the polls before the election was called - and we've heard predictions of them getting a 50-100 seat majority. They certainly weren't expecting to lose seats.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#92

Post by walshemj »

cm2187 wrote: post #82
isostatic wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lib Dems were crucified for their vital and successful minority partner in government for 10-15. The UK population wants a dictator, not a grown up concensus. This will be a Tory government with DUP support on confidence and supply

I don't know DUP. What is there view on surveillance?

More in favor of it that a lot of tories the are to the right of the Conservatives even more so on social issues.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#93

Post by lyschoening »

sqldba wrote: post #86
matthewmacleod wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)

The latest projections have them at 42.4% of the vote vs Labour's 40.1%. They do have 48.5% of the seats because of an unfair system.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#94

Post by walshemj »

ddalex wrote: post #72
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The thing about brexit was that the UK was already enjoying a lot of privileges and leeway in regards to their participation in the EU - they didn't participate on the agricultural subsidising fund, they didn't have to covert to Euro, etc, setting them apart and ahead of the other EU countries. I'm quite positive that the remaining powers of the EU, starting with Germany and France are actually delighted at leveling…

The UK is in the CAP

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#95

Post by rollthehard6 »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #55
buserror wrote: post #9

To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

It makes sense but it makes way more sense to do that before triggering Article 50, not after and 11 days before negotiations commence. Just reckless and stupid.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#96

Post by matthewmacleod »

sqldba wrote: post #86
matthewmacleod wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)

In pre-election polling they had a comfortable lead of over 20%. That's reduced to 3% - a relative collapse! Polling is of course never entirely accurate, but it was their election to lose.

(They did take a greater share of seats due to FPTP)

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#97

Post by taejo »

sqldba wrote: post #86
matthewmacleod wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)

A few months ago people were talking about a 100-seat majority for the Tories. Now they have no majority at all: they'll need to get every member of their party plus a few from the DUP to agree to any controversial thing they want to pass (e.g. the Brexit treaty) which might force the government (administration) to make concessions to extreme wings of the party (e.g. a hard-Brexit faction).

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#98

Post by tkyjonathan »

gumaflux wrote: post #52
tkyjonathan wrote: post #5

The result is quite ironic. It was supposed to be a 'bloodbath' for the conservatives and the extreme right. It looks like the left/hard left got the young out to vote. This is largely a vote against austerity and possibly also against globalisation. I would hope that this also translates to a more moderate brexit.

Perhaps if Labour actually won own majority, sounds more like a very poorly run campaign by May. Complete lack of leadership. Just the single fact of shying away from debates. Great opportunity to put country before party now.

Not a labour supporter myself, but I would saying getting 31 more seats when you were expected to lose 20-100 (according to polls) is a victory. In addition to cons not having a majority, labour can now actually be a proper opposition.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#99

Post by rollthehard6 »

open-source-ux wrote: post #88
matthewmacleod wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…

Labour as an opposition have been abysmal prior to the election campaign. But they ran a really remarkable campaign during the election period. It's all the more impressive when you consider we have the nastiest, most vicious rightwing press in Europe. Here are the national newspaper headlines from Thu 8 Jun: https://imgur.com/a/Gojht

Elections are still won on hope for change it seems. Not that anyone won but certainly more of the same with nothing much positive seems to have not won it for Tories.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#100

Post by vacri »

What is it with the Brits and an inability to do elections right these days. First they screw up the proportional representation referendum. Then the Scots mistakenly choose Remain (which wasn't an error at the time, but became one with Brexit). Then they Brexited, ironically because they want more control and accountability but rejected prop rep. And now this shemozzle.

The rest of the world should take away the UK's voting rights until they promise to behave!

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