Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?
UK election: Conservatives lose majority
81–90 of 200 posts
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think two things could happen. A torry-libdem coalition which would kill these nonsensical surveillance laws (libdem vetoed them in the past), or a new general election soon, then all bets are off.
Lib Dems were crucified for their vital and successful minority partner in government for 10-15. The UK population wants a dictator, not a grown up concensus. This will be a Tory government with DUP support on confidence and supply
I don't know DUP. What is there view on surveillance?
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
The bigger question there is why would the Irish want to become part of the UK after less than 100 years of independence?
I'm curious has something like that ever happened. A country was conquered, then won independence and then at a later point, decided to "rejoin" them.
Crimea kind of did that. They were conquered by Russia ~200 years ago, won independence with the Ukraine and then wanted to rejoin with Russia.
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
Northern Ireland person here, I'm afraid you have it backwards. The DUP is strongly opposed to a united Ireland, and (until very recently) have supported a border of some description with Ireland. Sinn Fein are for a united Ireland, but do not take up their seats in Westminster. The DUP have obtained 10 seats in this election (Sinn Fein have 7), and a coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP looks likely. The…
Thanks mate, I had a blend of the two as my understanding per my edit. I thought both wanted a united Ireland, but one from the Union and one from the Republic. I had that understanding as I thought that was largely what kept the issues within Ireland minimised.
No probs, what's been keeping the issues under control here is the Belfast (Good Friday) agreement [0], which (among lots of other things):
- grants dual nationality (British and Irish) to all the people born in Northern Ireland (simplified, there's a bit of complexity in there)
- allows for the Northern Ireland to become part of a United Ireland if the majority of people in Ireland wish it
IMO there's been a voice of reason coming from the middle ground, but this election has seen the province move more towards tribalism and the middle ground parties loosing their seats.
[0] - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agree...
(edited for formatting of the bullet points)
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#85Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?
Leader of the SNP was pushing for a second referendum. Not a vote winner.
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#86To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…
Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…
How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics.
(Serious Q not attacking)
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lib Dems were crucified for their vital and successful minority partner in government for 10-15. The UK population wants a dictator, not a grown up concensus. This will be a Tory government with DUP support on confidence and supply
I don't know DUP. What is there view on surveillance?
There are a fair few tory members (not just backbenchers) who are against May's fetish for ripping up human rights bills and installing a camera in every bathroom.
DUP are fundamentalist christian hard-right tories, but on the other hand they're in Ireland and know a lot about the bad side of state power (despite nominally being on the side of the British government)
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#88To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty ob…
Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…
Labour as an opposition have been abysmal prior to the election campaign. But they ran a really remarkable campaign during the election period. It's all the more impressive when you consider we have the nastiest, most vicious rightwing press in Europe. Here are the national newspaper headlines from Thu 8 Jun: https://imgur.com/a/Gojht
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#89Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?
Scottish nationalism is still somewhat popular, but a lot of people voting for the SNP last time weren't actually voting for Scottish nationalism, but for a left party, an area in which Ed Milliband's labour was deemed to be lacking.
The shift to the Tories can explained by: 1. The popularity of Ruth Davies, leader of the scotrish conservatives. 2. The left vote being split between the SNP and Labour, allowing the conservatives to win under FPTP.
Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campa…
How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)
You might have noticed that the last US presidential election was not won by the candidate who had most of the vote. In a similar fashion, the key thing in the UK vote is individual district elections of members of Parliament, not the % of the overall vote.