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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#41

Post by egeekuk »

NamTaf wrote: post #22

edit: I know they're Unionist and eurosceptic, my understanding was that they were also for a single Ireland inside the UK and therefore would want a soft Brexit with an open Irish border. Thanks for correcting me on that however. ---------- There is no possible outcome here for the Tories that works towards a strong Brexit. The most likely coalition partner - the DUP - is all about a unified Ireland. Brexit is drivi…

Northern Ireland person here, I'm afraid you have it backwards. The DUP is strongly opposed to a united Ireland, and (until very recently) have supported a border of some description with Ireland.

Sinn Fein are for a united Ireland, but do not take up their seats in Westminster.

The DUP have obtained 10 seats in this election (Sinn Fein have 7), and a coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP looks likely. The DUP has been bigger supporters of the Conservatives, and of Brexit.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#42

Post by djaychela »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #10

Man, it's been a bad time for Conservative mandates, hasn't it? Wasn't the Brexit vote set up by a Conservative prime minister to prove that Britain wanted to remain in the EU?

Yes, exactly - two spectacular demonstrations of misjudging the room.

Cameron paid with his job... and with the economy of the UK by the looks of it (yes, I live in the UK) after mis-judging the sentiment in the country (and telling us that he had got a 'new deal' with the EU, which was no such thing). The question is whether May will as well. She's saying 'no' to leaving this morning, but I don't see how her position is tenable, given that her 'strong and stable' concept is looking anything but after last night.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#44

Post by flukus »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #23

The BBC feed says: "There's still no result in Kensington, west London, after two recounts. The Conservatives say they'll keep calling for recounts until they are denied any more, rather than concede, the BBC understands. As such, there's going to be a third recount, which is either going to take place this afternoon or tomorrow..." What's that about? On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I mu…

> On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I must be missing some strategic consideration.

Probably hoping one of the recounts comes out in their favor, at which point the other side will ask for a recount. Probably childish and spiteful also.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#45

Post by mtgx »

This election shows once again how terrible the FPTP voting system is. The Tories gained like 41% of the vote, but 48% of the seats. And this is a "better" outcome than it would've been in the U.S., where you also have other high arbitrary thresholds for third-parties, and the media virtually ignores them throughout the year-long election cycles.

If the Tories had 41% of the seats (per the number of votes they received) and Labor 40%, it would've been much easier to form a majority with Labor. Now that seems unlikely, even though all parties should see that the Tories are in rapid decline in the voters' eyes, and they shouldn't attach themselves to the Conservative party in any way.

It's a real shame the Tories killed ranked choice voting (alternative voting) in 2011. I would have still preferred a proportional representation system, but RCV would've been a definite improvement over FPTP, too.

https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/6g6e5d/half_...

It's also an even bigger shame that the Liberals in Canada decided to betray their voters and back-down on moving away from the FPTP voting system, which was one of their biggest campaign promises in the last election. With the risk of getting the Conservatives back in power in Canada, I hope the Canadian voters punish them hard in the next election (by voting NDP or Green), because such betrayal must not be rewarded.

Canada could have finally moved away from the the undemocratic FPTP voting system, but the Liberals decided it may be better to stick to the undemocratic voting system if it means they can just switch places with Conservatives and dominate the government every 1-2 elections, as it happens in the United States with the Democratic and Republican parties.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#46

Post by vhhhggv »

alkonaut wrote: post #17
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

Unlikely to be reversed but it's a big slowdown and uncertainty for the whole Brexit process which was due to start already next week I believe. But on the bright side (for us in the rest of EU) it's also more likely to result in a "softer" brexit, if the election result is seen as a vote against May's Conservative plan. That said, whoever replaces May - once she has been eaten by the Tory backbenchers - is likely to…

> the whole Brexit process which was due to start already next week I believe.

> I believe

If you don't know what you're talking about you should shut up, or I'll assume you're spreading misinformation.

Put more charitably, any sentence ending in "I believe" should not be on HN if at all possible. Unless you want the place to turn into Reddit that is.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#47

Post by querulous »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #10

Man, it's been a bad time for Conservative mandates, hasn't it? Wasn't the Brexit vote set up by a Conservative prime minister to prove that Britain wanted to remain in the EU?

no. michael gove and boris johnson tried to use euroskepticism within the conservative party to strip cameron of the leadership. the referendum was a play by cameron to shut down the euroskeptics and sideline johnson/gove

none of gove, johnson or cameron thought the leave side had any chance of actually winning which is why all three of them bailed in the wake of the vote

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#48

Post by arethuza »

jansho wrote: post #37
alkonaut wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely to be reversed but it's a big slowdown and uncertainty for the whole Brexit process which was due to start already next week I believe. But on the bright side (for us in the rest of EU) it's also more likely to result in a "softer" brexit, if the election result is seen as a vote against May's Conservative plan. That said, whoever replaces May - once she has been eaten by the Tory backbenchers - is likely to…

> For example Boris Johnson Dear lord that would put a ribbon on everything!

I'd imagine the hardcore Conservatives will see BoJo as the only possible "Stop Corbyn" candidate - Amber Rudd is too high risk and not well known enough, even though she did very well in the campaign.

The problem is that, by all accounts, while BoJo might come across as a nice guy by all accounts he'd likely make an awful PM (e.g. read about the chaos that was his last leadership attempt).

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#49

Post by Freak_NL »

trosi wrote: post #21
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

Parliament has already voted yes on Brexit, and formal communication was already sent to the EU. According to Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty the UK now has less than 2 years to negotiate the terms of its exit. I don't think the process can be reversed but there is certainly a lot of leeway in how it will happen.

It probably can be reversed if the UK wants to. Any amendment needed to make that legally possible would most likely be passed by the EP. Not that it would be easy, mind.

If neither the UK nor the EU desires this break-up, then it won't happen. It all depends on what the UK government does (which realistically speaking probably does not include pulling the emergency brake on the Brexit, unfortunately).

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#50

Post by matthewmacleod »

What an absolute mess. It really just again demonstrates that the country is divided right down the middle - inward vs. outward, young vs. old, nationalist vs. unionist.

Nobody is coming out of this well, and I think it's virtually certain that there will be another general election in short order - but I don't really expect the outcome to be much different.

I guess this is what happens when parties move apart like that. Corbyn's Labour have shifted quite far to the left, while the Conservatives have turned completely inward. There's a huge gap in the middle, and unfortunately our electoral system leaves little hope of filling it.

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