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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#61

Post by nailer »

arethuza wrote: post #48
jansho wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example Boris Johnson Dear lord that would put a ribbon on everything!

I'd imagine the hardcore Conservatives will see BoJo as the only possible "Stop Corbyn" candidate - Amber Rudd is too high risk and not well known enough, even though she did very well in the campaign. The problem is that, by all accounts, while BoJo might come across as a nice guy by all accounts he'd likely make an awful PM (e.g. read about the chaos that was his last leadership attempt).

The only 'chaos' I recall was trusting Gove, was there something else?

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#62

Post by NamTaf »

egeekuk wrote: post #41
NamTaf wrote: post #22

edit: I know they're Unionist and eurosceptic, my understanding was that they were also for a single Ireland inside the UK and therefore would want a soft Brexit with an open Irish border. Thanks for correcting me on that however. ---------- There is no possible outcome here for the Tories that works towards a strong Brexit. The most likely coalition partner - the DUP - is all about a unified Ireland. Brexit is drivi…

Northern Ireland person here, I'm afraid you have it backwards. The DUP is strongly opposed to a united Ireland, and (until very recently) have supported a border of some description with Ireland. Sinn Fein are for a united Ireland, but do not take up their seats in Westminster. The DUP have obtained 10 seats in this election (Sinn Fein have 7), and a coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP looks likely. The…

Thanks mate, I had a blend of the two as my understanding per my edit. I thought both wanted a united Ireland, but one from the Union and one from the Republic. I had that understanding as I thought that was largely what kept the issues within Ireland minimised.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#63

Post by matthewmacleod »

keithpeter wrote: post #13
da_n wrote: post #4

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

Watch out for Angela Rudd. She kept her seat (just) and could be a player.

Amber Rudd, rather than Angela - but I agree she's probably in the running if May resigns today.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#64

Post by querulous »

alkonaut wrote: post #19
deanclatworthy wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Labour plus the others won't have a majority. And no other party would join with the tories at this point. So we are likely in store for another election, announced in the next couple of weeks.

If you were to guess - what would be the result of that? Hard to say I assume given we don't even know who will lead the Conservatives to that election, but do you think the Labour bounce was a one off thing or a trend that might see them take even more seats ?

hard to say. there was a narrative that corbyn was unelectable so a revote might get more buy in from his detractors and a more unified labour front

theresa may also ran an absolutely terrible campaign and is personally unpopular so if the tories replace her they may do better next time around. it's hard to imagine the tories producing a credible leader on short notice though. most of the plausible candidates will want nothing to do with this mess and the second tier was mostly already rejected in favour of may last year

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#65

Post by mathw »

trosi wrote: post #21
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

Parliament has already voted yes on Brexit, and formal communication was already sent to the EU. According to Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty the UK now has less than 2 years to negotiate the terms of its exit. I don't think the process can be reversed but there is certainly a lot of leeway in how it will happen.

Quite a few prominent EU figures have said they think it can be reversed quite easily. I imagine it gets harder the more negotiation has actually been done though, because especially if Theresa May takes her attitude to them there'll be increasing numbers of burning bridges behind her.

The EU want us to stay though, so at the moment I think a reversal would be quite painless. In a year's time, maybe not.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#66

Post by arethuza »

flukus wrote: post #51
kolp wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DUP is a unionist party and is diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.

Hypothetically, Would they accept a united Ireland as part of the UK?

Why on earth would they want that - I don't think I've heard anyone even mentioning that idea.

It's about as likely as the US deciding it wants to be a UK colony again.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#67

Post by mathw »

arethuza wrote: post #48
jansho wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example Boris Johnson Dear lord that would put a ribbon on everything!

I'd imagine the hardcore Conservatives will see BoJo as the only possible "Stop Corbyn" candidate - Amber Rudd is too high risk and not well known enough, even though she did very well in the campaign. The problem is that, by all accounts, while BoJo might come across as a nice guy by all accounts he'd likely make an awful PM (e.g. read about the chaos that was his last leadership attempt).

He would be an absolutely shambolic PM.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#68

Post by isostatic »

cm2187 wrote: post #53
da_n wrote: post #4

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

I think two things could happen. A torry-libdem coalition which would kill these nonsensical surveillance laws (libdem vetoed them in the past), or a new general election soon, then all bets are off.

Lib Dems were crucified for their vital and successful minority partner in government for 10-15. The UK population wants a dictator, not a grown up concensus.

This will be a Tory government with DUP support on confidence and supply

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#69

Post by cm2187 »

mtgx wrote: post #45

This election shows once again how terrible the FPTP voting system is. The Tories gained like 41% of the vote, but 48% of the seats. And this is a "better" outcome than it would've been in the U.S., where you also have other high arbitrary thresholds for third-parties, and the media virtually ignores them throughout the year-long election cycles. If the Tories had 41% of the seats (per the number of votes they receiv…

Political unstability is pretty ugly. Some countries are good at forming coalitions and sticking to them (UK, Germany), some are absolutely terrible at that (France) and you end up with a new government every week. There are some merits to these systems which give a clear majority to the largest party over a fully representative but deadlocked parliament.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#70

Post by [deleted] »

cm2187 wrote: post #53
da_n wrote: post #4

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

I think two things could happen. A torry-libdem coalition which would kill these nonsensical surveillance laws (libdem vetoed them in the past), or a new general election soon, then all bets are off.

[deleted]
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