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Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

nytimes.com

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Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#191

Post by bigbugbag »

sikosmurf wrote: post #35
gremlinsinc wrote: post #8

I feel like Lyft is the underdog coming back to strike the killer blow to Uber... The year Uber has had I wouldn't be surprised to see them disappear altogether by 2018/2019. Lyft seems to be doing things a lot better, but helps that their CEO isn't out starting fires instead of putting them out.

Interesting. I feel like there is no way Uber would be on the brink of bankruptcy and not be able to fundamentally change the problems that have persisted so far. I guess what I'm getting at is that a company valued at 69 billion dollars going out of business in less than 2 years should be a surprise to everyone .

It would only a surprise to people who may believe that companies are worth what they're valued, people who do not understand that investments are bets.

Ever heard of bubbles ? Well they inflate until they burst in a poof where a few trillions disappear.

Remember the dot com bubble bursting at the beginning of the 2000's ? Expect something similar in a not so distant future as the bubble cycle repeats itself.

So yes a 69 billion dollars market valuation for a company does not mean anything other than investors made a bet this company would somehow pay them back their money plus extra at some point.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#192

Post by dalbasal »

nodesocket wrote: post #150
alistproducer2 wrote: post #14

When I use lyft now, I'm coming across drivers that only drive for lyft. The tide has definitely shifted against Uber. I'm not really sure there's a way back at this point. The one advantage Uber had was network effect, but in my experience that has diminished. Lyfts come just as fast as Ubers now because they have enough drivers on the road to support the response time. I'll never go back to Uber.

I'd say this assessment is clouded by your own judgements of Uber. Uber is vastly larger than Lyft. I've taken Uber's all over the world (Europe, South America), Lyft barely has market penetration in rural areas of the United States. I recently bet my friend who is supremely confident that United Airlines business will be significantly impacted due to the passenger incident. Thus far, it appears United is doing just…

I'm in no position to guess which way winds are blowing but...

I don't think uber (or lyft) will ever be totally dominant purely because of network effects. Passengers and (especially) drivers are mobile, and can switch services back and forward between apps. All you need to compete is a regional network. The global network is helpful on the margins, but an uber for Lisbon should work fine.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#193

Post by pawadu »

Semaphor wrote: post #187
bigbugbag wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Uber has a better market penetration right now, it seems each day we're getting closer to the tipping point for Uber. Once Uber loses traction and grip, what prevents the now uber driver to switch to become lyft drivers ? People looking for rides do not care if it's uber or lyft or something else as long they have a ride and it's not too expensive. United Airlines having a good Q2 quarters will not help Uber…

> what prevents the now uber driver to switch to become lyft drivers ? The (non)availability of Lyft all over the world except one country. According to some quick googling, Uber exists in 80 countries without Lyft.

I think the point OP is making is that Uber doesn't really own anything outside mindshare. The drivers are after all free agents. Once the VC money used to subsidize rides dries out basically any company can challenge Uber.

Which is why Uber wants to cut their dependence on drivers by using self driving cars. Then they will actually own something (the technology) in addition to the mindshare.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#194

Post by alokdhari »

Joeri wrote: post #181
quonn wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> literally lighting billions of dollars in funds on fire Figuratively. But even that's not true, since customers have saved real money and spent it elsewhere.

So, uber is really a secret socialist scheme to redistribute wealth from the investors to uber's customers?

I should start using Uber more often if that is true.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#195

Post by icebraining »

bigbugbag wrote: post #186
keeptrying wrote: post #77

Waymo will have the first self driving cars on the road. They are so ahead of everyone. I think everyone including regular car companies buy the tech from Waymo in the short term.

Ever heard of the DARPA Grand challenge ? The first edition way in 2004 and the project aim is to have one third of US ground military vehicles autonomous by 2015. It seems the US DoD has a quite a headstart on waymo.

From Waymo's wiki page: "Google's self driving car project was formerly led by Sebastian Thrun (...). Thrun's team at Stanford created the robotic vehicle Stanley which won the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge and its US$2 million prize from the United States Department of Defense. The team developing the system consisted of 15 engineers working for Google, including Chris Urmson, Mike Montemerlo, and Anthony Levandowski who had worked on the DARPA Grand and Urban Challenges."

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#196

Post by mstade »

dalbasal wrote: post #192
nodesocket wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say this assessment is clouded by your own judgements of Uber. Uber is vastly larger than Lyft. I've taken Uber's all over the world (Europe, South America), Lyft barely has market penetration in rural areas of the United States. I recently bet my friend who is supremely confident that United Airlines business will be significantly impacted due to the passenger incident. Thus far, it appears United is doing just…

I'm in no position to guess which way winds are blowing but... I don't think uber (or lyft) will ever be totally dominant purely because of network effects. Passengers and (especially) drivers are mobile, and can switch services back and forward between apps. All you need to compete is a regional network. The global network is helpful on the margins, but an uber for Lisbon should work fine.

Anecdata to support your point: in Stockholm the taxi companies have caught up in terms of convenience vis-à-vis apps, registering payment methods etc., to the point where I just use them rather than Uber. To me, Uber never competed on price, it was the convenience, and the competition has caught up to the point where Uber now seems clunky almost.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#197

Post by thanksgiving »

bigbugbag wrote: post #170
kornish wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and VC money Yeah, this is pretty key. If Uber's dominant position in the US is slipping but there's still a clear way for them to emerge on top globally and cash is the limiting concern, it seems likely they'll be able to continue subsidizing international expansion with more VC money.

Unless this VC money goes to pay for trial expenses against google.

I think they should settle. Uber should give waymo whatever they asked for (which likely isn't money).

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#198

Post by ju-st »

avaer wrote: post #12
Moshe_Silnorin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will be a commodity market. Not excited as an investor, very excited as a customer though.

If it's a commodity like telecoms -- and not like rice -- then I'm not too excited as a consumer either.

Telecoms do have a natural monopoly, ride sharing does not.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#199

Post by bigbugbag »

tim333 wrote: post #69
ridgeguy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valuation differs from cash in the bank. Uber could be valued at a gazillion $, but if it can't make payroll in 90 days, it's got a problem that would be tough to fix, given the apparent lack of a profitable business model.

The recent figure for what it's worth (end 2016): revenue $6.5 billion losses excluding China $2.8 bn $7 billion of cash on hand, along with an untapped $2.3 billion credit facility (bloomberg) So they are not going bust tomorrow but whether they can build a real business from that is quite questionable.

Talk about biased numbers and interpretation.

Revenue is growing but losses are growing too, so revenue is not growing fast enough.

7 billions of cash means Uber will be broke in less than two years depending how much faster losses are growing compared to revenue.

Investors might become hesitant until they know where the lawsuit with google is going.

My interpretation is that, unless Uber finds a way to reverse steam and become profitable they are still around today but are on the way out and might be gone tomorrow.

Re: Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

#200

Post by enraged_camel »

nodesocket wrote: post #171
CPLX wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the finance fundamentals of Uber are truly horrible. Their only explanation for literally lighting billions of dollars in funds on fire to subsidize rides is supposedly to consolidate market share. If they don't have a defensible position and they lose money on every transaction what exactly do they have to show for it?

Sure Uber is losing gobs of money, but that's not the most important metric at this stage for them. Look at Tesla, they lost 330 million in 2017 Q1. You absolutely will find bears against Tesla, but that's mainly because of its current $324 share price, not its fundamental business which is losing money.

>>Sure Uber is losing gobs of money, but that's not the most important metric at this stage for them. Look at Tesla, they lost 330 million in 2017 Q1.

Apples and oranges. Tesla is losing money because they are investing massive amounts of capital to improve their supply chain and production capabilities. Uber is losing money because they subsidize rides to try to push competitors out of business. Tesla is actually profitable. Uber? We don't know.

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