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China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

nytimes.com

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Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#21

Post by Animats »

The "Belt and Road" scheme is well known. The first container freight train from Yiwu, China to Barking, England, arrived January 15, 2017. Coast to coast travel time: two weeks.[1] Conveniently, China uses a 4' 8.5" track gauge, unlike Russian metric gauge, so they can move freight cars all the way without a gauge change.

Soon, of course, heavier rails, longer trains, faster trains, more trains, better gradients, more electrification, alternate routes... China is funding high speed rail from Belgrade to Budapest. Now that's an infrastructure scheme.

[1] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38654176

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#22

Post by nostromo »

hemantv wrote: post #14
nostromo wrote: post #13

The "China vs America" narrative is unnecessary. If China wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure to develop their region that's a great thing for America too. Counterintuitively, it could even be better for the US than China. Eventually the demand for low-margin, subsidized, Chinese steel will flatten, while the demand for high-margin American technology and cultural products will grow.

without IP these high margin American technology is copyable, which China has already shown they can do that.

American technology companies don't rely on IP restrictions as much as they used to. You couldn't copy Facebook, Google, Apple, or Amazon's products and services effectively on a global scale even if they had no IP restrictions.

And China is the second largest market for American movies, which absolutely require IP law to function. So I think this concern is overstated.

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#23

Post by aaron-lebo »

greglindahl wrote: post #18
mythrwy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also applaud that idea. But I do wonder if it's possible to protect/expand trade without military activity. Historically it seems military expansion is the tip of the spear for trade expansion.

There are plenty of examples in the late 20th century where military activity wasn't a help: Taiwan and South Korea have succeeded despite their military challenges -- and spend basically nothing militarily protecting their trade.

They can only do that because someone else is subsidizing a large part of their defense (the US). Without that they would have been conquered by NK and China long ago.

Ironically, it is the US overspending in military which is part of what is driving his economic push for China instead of trying to compete militarily.

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#24

Post by thablackbull »

agumonkey wrote: post #19
Kholo wrote: post #11

I found this talk with Niall Ferguson and Samantha Power pretty fascinating about the US - China power balance changing. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8yghOc-lMIM Just one mindblowing fact from the talk - China has poured more concrete in the last two years than the US in the last hundred.

China is a hot mass, people look at it as valuable energy, but it seems it lacks structure to be able to handle itself without risk of collapse. I don't wish them to fail, I just wish things to evolve smoothly and peacefully.

> it seems it lacks structure to be able to handle itself without risk of collapse.

Could you clarify? China was stable for like a millennium while Europe was fighting each other to no end.

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#25

Post by droopyEyelids »

bmiranda wrote: post #9
grewergrfefg wrote: post #4

I recently heard Charles Hess from InferFocus talk about the changes coming from China. The United States is about to be passed up in a big way due to Xi's "China Dream" https://twitter.com/cervinventures/status/860307819030958080

What should the US do than? Spend our tax dollars on foreign handouts? If US companies want to invest in SE Asia there is nothing stopping them.

Right now we're using the tools of taxation and legislation to transfer our country's wealth to 'elites' - mainly through taxation for 'defense' spending, patent law legislation, and finance.

Those choices are not obviously the ones that will have the most beneifical long term impact on our country's power.

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#26

Post by thablackbull »

Animats wrote: post #21

The "Belt and Road" scheme is well known. The first container freight train from Yiwu, China to Barking, England, arrived January 15, 2017. Coast to coast travel time: two weeks.[1] Conveniently, China uses a 4' 8.5" track gauge, unlike Russian metric gauge, so they can move freight cars all the way without a gauge change. Soon, of course, heavier rails, longer trains, faster trains, more trains, better gradients, mo…

To add to that, the SCMP newspaper just released a visual a couple days ago explaining various projects.

The five main projects of the Belt and Road Initiative http://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-R...

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#27

Post by njarboe »

“Pursuing protectionism is just like locking oneself in a dark room,” Mr. Xi told business leaders at the World Economic Forum in January.

I might agree with Mr. Xi, but the Great Firewall of China is a higher wall of protectionism than anything the West has against the Chinese. Forcing foreign companies to partner with Chinese companies and then transfer all of their closely held technologies and industrial processes to China seems pretty protectionist also. Maybe in Chinese culture being able to lock oneself in a dark room is a positive?

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#28

Post by the-dude »

grewergrfefg wrote: post #16
bmiranda wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What should the US do than? Spend our tax dollars on foreign handouts? If US companies want to invest in SE Asia there is nothing stopping them.

I don't have an answer for you. But, I'd rather spend tax dollars building railroads in SE Asia than blowing up the Middle East. #Iraq2Trillion #neverforget

Dude, it is not 2 trillion by a long shot.

It is 268k ( https://www.iraqbodycount.org/ )

Re: China's $1T Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order

#29

Post by agumonkey »

thablackbull wrote: post #24
agumonkey wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a hot mass, people look at it as valuable energy, but it seems it lacks structure to be able to handle itself without risk of collapse. I don't wish them to fail, I just wish things to evolve smoothly and peacefully.

> it seems it lacks structure to be able to handle itself without risk of collapse. Could you clarify? China was stable for like a millennium while Europe was fighting each other to no end.

I meant as internal structure, not international stability.
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