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How Google Could Collapse

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Re: How Google Could Collapse

#51

Post by dragonwriter »

woah wrote: post #39
norea-armozel wrote: post #35

I don't think the collapse of advertising is necessarily a collapse of Google. Google (Alphabet, really) has so much IP and many other possible ways to grow that if crap hits the fan they can change course. Not to mention they do seem to be generating plenty of revenue to keep people interested in buying their stock. So long as Wall Street is willing to bear the weight of their ventures then I don't see Google going…

What percentage of their revenue is from advertising right now? Over 99%, right?

About 88%.

Which is a lot, but it's still $3+ billion in non-advertising revenue quarterly.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#52

Post by thunderstrike »

soared wrote: post #26

It is obvious the author doesn't understand advertising. Honestly, skip this one. Here is a list of problems: * OP is constantly misunderstanding the difference between search, shopping, display, native, and social. * Unsubstantiated claim that youtube has 'insurmountable' problems * Display ads having 0.06% is irrelevant - the goal isn't clicks * Random claim that google lost a major portion of its audience already?…

> Search was Google’s only unambiguous win, as well as its primary source of revenue, so when Amazon rapidly surpassed Google as the top product search destination, Google’s foundations began to falter.

This is the most annoying line though. Literally his own sources don't corroborate his assertion.

Also, it is in past tense. When the first source he links to is from 4Q 2016. Alphabet literally beat its earnings expectations yesterday.[0]

[0]:http://www.businessinsider.com/alphabet-google-reports-q1-ea...

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#53

Post by georgeecollins »

Google won't collapse because:

Mobile search is likely to be replaced by agents, and google controls one of the best AI agents and the world's most popular operating system.

Users hate ads but they don't necessarily hate paid responses to search queries, if they are appropriate. That business is not going away soon.

Also, just because YouTube isn't yet profitable doesn't mean it could be made profitable. The Author talks about how Amazon has surpassed google for product searches. Amazon was not profitable for a long time to prioritize growth. I think you can see the same thing with YouTube.

And, oh yeah, they get a cut of a store that is projected to have $42B in revenue in 2021. (https://9to5mac.com/2017/03/29/app-store-android-app-market-...)

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#54

Post by wand3r »

clarkmoody wrote: post #44
Markoff wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not sure about rest of Europe, but when I search for product I go to local price comparison website, which is much more popular than Amazon, since by my experience pretty much everything on Amazon is more expensive than in plenty of local shops, other option would be I guess Aliexpress if it's not rushing and doesn't have to be some specific brand article seem to be as usual very US-centric, Google is huge in Europe,…

> search (easily replacable) Search is a complete free market, and there are other competitors in the space. User switching costs are nearly zero, since choosing a different search engine is as easy as typing a URL. Yet, Google persists in adding the most value to user searches and dominates the space. I'm not sure how easily Google Search will be dethroned.

I think the parent is wrong in "easily replaceable" but I think it will be replaced soon. For $5 I would pay for a private customizable search engine, someone will build it

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#55

Post by dragonwriter »

thunderstrike wrote: post #52
soared wrote: post #26

It is obvious the author doesn't understand advertising. Honestly, skip this one. Here is a list of problems: * OP is constantly misunderstanding the difference between search, shopping, display, native, and social. * Unsubstantiated claim that youtube has 'insurmountable' problems * Display ads having 0.06% is irrelevant - the goal isn't clicks * Random claim that google lost a major portion of its audience already?…

> Search was Google’s only unambiguous win, as well as its primary source of revenue, so when Amazon rapidly surpassed Google as the top product search destination, Google’s foundations began to falter. This is the most annoying line though. Literally his own sources don't corroborate his assertion. Also, it is in past tense. When the first source he links to is from 4Q 2016. Alphabet literally beat its earnings expe…

> Also, it is in past tense.

It's written as a report from "the near future", so both current and speculated future events are written in the past tense.

It's a piece of not particularly insightful or entertaining speculative fiction.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#56

Post by palakchokshi »

thunderstrike wrote: post #52
soared wrote: post #26

It is obvious the author doesn't understand advertising. Honestly, skip this one. Here is a list of problems: * OP is constantly misunderstanding the difference between search, shopping, display, native, and social. * Unsubstantiated claim that youtube has 'insurmountable' problems * Display ads having 0.06% is irrelevant - the goal isn't clicks * Random claim that google lost a major portion of its audience already?…

> Search was Google’s only unambiguous win, as well as its primary source of revenue, so when Amazon rapidly surpassed Google as the top product search destination, Google’s foundations began to falter. This is the most annoying line though. Literally his own sources don't corroborate his assertion. Also, it is in past tense. When the first source he links to is from 4Q 2016. Alphabet literally beat its earnings expe…

The post is written as if it was written in the future talking about things happening currently. See the line just below the title. Reporting from the very near post Google future.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#57

Post by pound »

Klathmon wrote: post #17
philosopherlawr wrote: post #11

There isn't enough evidence to back up his claims, especially about artificial intelligence. His claim that Amazon with Alexa will succeed in the marketplace is not definite at all. It's true Alexa has a head start, but Google is catching up to it. The situation kind of reminds me of android in 2010 vs. the iPhone. Look what happened there.

Honestly in my mind Google is already passing Amazon and their Alexa. They just released an update to their Google Home which does individual voice recognition per person to offer individualized results for each, even going as far as to play my favorite playlists when asked, and my wife's when she asks.

I wish they'd catch up with not using company name as a wake-up word

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#58

Post by dragonwriter »

woah wrote: post #38
rickdg wrote: post #2

Have we stopped evaluating companies based on vision and expectations? Because mapping all of reality is a pretty solid strategy that Google is striving for.

So far, it's an ad agency with hobbies. The inspirational quotes they feed their employees and shareholders shouldn't distract you from their actual business.

> So far, it's an ad agency with hobbies.

Hobbies that account for billions of dollars of quarterly revenue.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#59

Post by mabbo »

As an intern at Google back 7 years ago, a fairly senior developer that I liked working with told me something that really stuck with me: "Google found a hose that money pours out of, and it's called Online Advertising. All that we do now is try to make that hose work better, and try to find another hose."

I think the premise of this article is that Google's money hose is drying up and it seems they may not have found another hose.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#60

Post by ageitgey »

pdabbadabba wrote: post #40
Southclaws wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I avoid amazon search like the plague. All that ever pops up when I search for a product is cheap chinese knockoffs with round numbers of mysterious, broken english, 5 star reviews and one pixelated photo. Google, specialist sites or local places are where I'll always go for product search.

I'm not sure what country you're in, but in the U.S. I've virtually never had that experience on Amazon. Sure, there are some lower quality products mixed in with the good stuff, but I always find it pretty easy to tell which is which. And, that being the case, I find that added degree of price/quality diversity to be a benefit in itself. Edit: By the way, are we still talking about "cheap Chinese knockoffs"? Seems o…

Try any search for a phone accessory like "mobile phone vr headset" or "usb battery pack".
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