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How Google Could Collapse

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Re: How Google Could Collapse

#31

Post by rhizome »

skybrian wrote: post #23
JKCalhoun wrote: post #5

"Ads are cool as long as they are relevant to me," said no one ever (who wasn't in the business of selling online advertising). (EDIT: typo)

Game and movie trailers are ads. People not only don't mind them, they seek them out and share them. (There do seem to be too many movie trailers these days before the movie starts, but I think we'd miss them if they were gone entirely.)

I remember 10-15 years ago there was a site that had all the latest commercials, just to show what creative stuff was going on in the advertising world.

It got shut down for copyright.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#32

Post by theCricketer »

Related: Here is an interesting piece from Benedict Evans, where he argues that there are currently many reasons voice technology isn't ready to be the next platform.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/2/22/voice-and-the-u...

An excerpt:

"There's a set of contradictions here, I think. Voice UIs look, conceptually, like much more unrestricted and general purpose interfaces than a smartphone, but they're actually narrower and more single-purpose. They look like less friction than pulling out your phone, unlocking it, loading an app and so on, and they are - but only if you've shifted your mental model. They look like the future beyond smartphones, but in their (necessarily) closed, locked-down nature they also look a lot like feature phones or carrier decks. And they're a platform, but one that might get worse the bigger the developer ecosystem"

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#34

Post by bobsil1 »

skybrian wrote: post #23
JKCalhoun wrote: post #5

"Ads are cool as long as they are relevant to me," said no one ever (who wasn't in the business of selling online advertising). (EDIT: typo)

Game and movie trailers are ads. People not only don't mind them, they seek them out and share them. (There do seem to be too many movie trailers these days before the movie starts, but I think we'd miss them if they were gone entirely.)

They're more like candy samples.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#35

Post by norea-armozel »

I don't think the collapse of advertising is necessarily a collapse of Google. Google (Alphabet, really) has so much IP and many other possible ways to grow that if crap hits the fan they can change course. Not to mention they do seem to be generating plenty of revenue to keep people interested in buying their stock. So long as Wall Street is willing to bear the weight of their ventures then I don't see Google going away any time soon. More likely is that Google eventually leaves the advertising business as it becomes less relevant to their bottom line just like how Amazon isn't about books as much anymore (they still sell them, but they got so many other revenue streams that if books as a market cratered they wouldn't go bankrupt from it). When that "eventually" will happen I can't say but I'll say I'd be surprised advertising would be relevant to them in twenty years beyond a marginal line of business.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#36

Post by Southclaws »

Markoff wrote: post #27
panarky wrote: post #19

Summary: more people are blocking ads and starting product searches at Amazon, so Google will lose their core business. And yet, the growth of Google's core business isn't declining and it hasn't even leveled off -- growth is actually accelerating! Year-over-year revenues are growing faster now than they did last year. Same thing with earnings. And margins are expanding instead of shrinking. Source: https://abc.xyz/i…

not sure about rest of Europe, but when I search for product I go to local price comparison website, which is much more popular than Amazon, since by my experience pretty much everything on Amazon is more expensive than in plenty of local shops, other option would be I guess Aliexpress if it's not rushing and doesn't have to be some specific brand article seem to be as usual very US-centric, Google is huge in Europe,…

I avoid amazon search like the plague. All that ever pops up when I search for a product is cheap chinese knockoffs with round numbers of mysterious, broken english, 5 star reviews and one pixelated photo. Google, specialist sites or local places are where I'll always go for product search.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#37

Post by zipwitch »

dragonwriter wrote: post #16
joefkelley wrote: post #10

For context, Here's Alphabet's quarterly financial results released yesterday: https://abc.xyz/investor/news/earnings/2017/Q1_alphabet_earn... Revenue is up 24% year over year. Beat analyst expectations, so the stock jumped ~4% yesterday.

And even if revenue did start dropping, unless it totally collapses overnight, Alphabet's enormous cash stockpile buys a lot of breathing room.

They could always try to more dirctly monetize gmail.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#38

Post by woah »

rickdg wrote: post #2

Have we stopped evaluating companies based on vision and expectations? Because mapping all of reality is a pretty solid strategy that Google is striving for.

So far, it's an ad agency with hobbies. The inspirational quotes they feed their employees and shareholders shouldn't distract you from their actual business.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#39

Post by woah »

norea-armozel wrote: post #35

I don't think the collapse of advertising is necessarily a collapse of Google. Google (Alphabet, really) has so much IP and many other possible ways to grow that if crap hits the fan they can change course. Not to mention they do seem to be generating plenty of revenue to keep people interested in buying their stock. So long as Wall Street is willing to bear the weight of their ventures then I don't see Google going…

What percentage of their revenue is from advertising right now? Over 99%, right?

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#40

Post by pdabbadabba »

Southclaws wrote: post #36
Markoff wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not sure about rest of Europe, but when I search for product I go to local price comparison website, which is much more popular than Amazon, since by my experience pretty much everything on Amazon is more expensive than in plenty of local shops, other option would be I guess Aliexpress if it's not rushing and doesn't have to be some specific brand article seem to be as usual very US-centric, Google is huge in Europe,…

I avoid amazon search like the plague. All that ever pops up when I search for a product is cheap chinese knockoffs with round numbers of mysterious, broken english, 5 star reviews and one pixelated photo. Google, specialist sites or local places are where I'll always go for product search.

I'm not sure what country you're in, but in the U.S. I've virtually never had that experience on Amazon. Sure, there are some lower quality products mixed in with the good stuff, but I always find it pretty easy to tell which is which. And, that being the case, I find that added degree of price/quality diversity to be a benefit in itself.

Edit: By the way, are we still talking about "cheap Chinese knockoffs"? Seems odd to include "Chinese" in that phrase when much of the high quality stuff is made there as well!

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