91–100 of 231 posts
This one is also great: http://www.wisdomination.com/what-is-survivorship-bias/ By far, the best explanation I've ever seen !
I believe that success does largely depend on capitalizing on lucky breaks. However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. What matters is can you spot lucky breaks,and when you do spot them, how do you react? I think it's very possible to train yourself to have the awareness to be able to analyze situations, recognize lucky breaks frequently and just run with them. In a word, you could call…
It's indeed worth to take survivorship bias into account. But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is completely random and use "survivorship bias" argument as an excuse to do nothing. I'm highly recommend to listen Peter Thiel's speech "You are not a lottery ticket": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw
Absolutely Biases and fallacies (up to a point) are not end-all. Gambler's fallacy makes sense if you're throwing dice, not if you're improving yourself, trying different things and walking the distance Here's the thing with survivorship bias, they might not answer with something that's a guarantee of success (because nothing is), but they won't answer with something that's catastrophic.
I have had a lot of exposure to people 'in property'. People in property are people who had access to capital at the right time. Even worse are those who get to hear about government sell offs or developments which will increase values in an area before the rest of the populace. Then of course there are the money launderers. So I will add flexible morality to my list of traits that make a millionaire.
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>However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. Why do you assume this?
Everyone experience change. Not all change is bad, some change is good. This would be sufficient for "everyone experience lucky breaks" to be true. Sometimes a change can be terrible and good. Whole family dead, house gone? Terrible. Being free to move to a new area, perhaps find new opportunity - could be (in a different sense) good. Only a crazy person would want such a disaster, but sometimes surviving something l…
There is an issue of magnitude of those breaks, though
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I am a small business owner, doing unpleasant work. My business has been doing well, exactly because it is unpleasant: a lot of people want to outsource what I do, even if it is a bit expensive. I also have found that many people are OK to do some jobs for me that I find really really unpleasant. You need to find the right person for the right "unpleasant" though. This is the beauty of capitalism. And I am now a mill…
...so? what is it that you do?
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> There are loads of stories like that. Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr. Otherwise thinking that those successes have some meaningful advice to offer wouldn't be survivorship bias, it'd actually be correct. > Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the…
>Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr The vast majority of single digit millionaires are doctors, lawyers, construction company owners. I've even personally met a factory worker who retired with > $1mm in savings due to prudent money management (no lottery wins, just basic financial management for 30+ years). I live in a compl…
Edit: Link for convenience: https://www.amazon.com/Millionaire-Next-Door-Surprising-Amer...
Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…
I would agree. One of the things I tell students is that studying success stories is extremely valuable, but only if you do it the right way. You're looking for two things: 1) Trends. 2) Ideas. Not blueprints. (On the med school survivorship bias comment: I don't know about the US medical system, but every other high-earning profession I'm aware of has a significant failure rate. Don't go to law school in the UK assu…
I notice one thing that most success dont have, them just sitting on couch doing nothing.
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> There are loads of stories like that. Not compared with the loads of stories of people who worked hard, improved themselves, and still don't earn anywhere near $1M/yr. Otherwise thinking that those successes have some meaningful advice to offer wouldn't be survivorship bias, it'd actually be correct. > Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the…
Taylor Swift telling you to put everything into your dreams of becoming a pop star is like a lotto winner telling you to spend your life savings on lotto tickets Except for the fact that you could spend millions of dollars on lotto tickets and have absolutely zero to show for it besides the loss of money. However, if you put in the hard work to learn to be a musician, perform in front of others, go through the fire o…
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> It is not that hard to become a millionaire, way easier than being a salaried person Sure. If it is not so hard, everyone would do it. If everyone was a millionaire, who would do actual unpleasant work? Who would clean, run hospitals, build infrastructure? Who would work for your startup so you can make money? Your comment is such an example of survivorship bias! Capitalism is a competition. You won, good for you.…
I am a small business owner, doing unpleasant work. My business has been doing well, exactly because it is unpleasant: a lot of people want to outsource what I do, even if it is a bit expensive. I also have found that many people are OK to do some jobs for me that I find really really unpleasant. You need to find the right person for the right "unpleasant" though. This is the beauty of capitalism. And I am now a mill…
Did you find it interesting to begin with? Or did you just think the sector would be a good investment and then later, after you were successful, it became interesting?