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Survivorship Bias

xkcd.com

81–90 of 231 posts

Re: Survivorship Bias

#81
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What else would you do instead? Acknowledge when luck was the major reason for your success. Don't stand in front of a room of people and tell them if they weren't so damn lazy, they could have hundreds of millions of dollars as well. In other words, if luck played any major part in your success, you really have no justification in lecturing people on how to be good at something.

I think you misunderstood me. I am not "successful" in that sense. By "you" I meant us "unsuccessful" people who are the target of such "success stories". What are we supposed to do? I'd say it's waste of time to get too pissed at success stories that are affected by survivorship bias.

It doesn't mean you should be mad, just rejecting the fluffy business success thinking and think more deeply about how your personal situation is and is not the same as the person giving the optimistic take and making decisions with some thoughts about the likely outcome.

Consider Bill Gates: by all accounts, he was a good programmer and willing to work long hours. Over the years I've heard a lot of people talk about that without also acknowledging things like the starting advantage of coming from a wealthy family and making his first big sale when his mother was on IBM's board, and the luck of starting a business just as the industry was making a huge change which upset a lot of established players.

That doesn't mean you need to hate him or say his success was undeserved – ignoring the later anti-trust actions – but it does say that for most of us the more realistic model would be, say, Gary Kildall. That also says that e.g. many people might reasonably conclude that a career at a large corporation which gives them some interesting technical work and leaves them with time to spend on their family, personal health, open-source projects or other hobbies, etc. is actually a better deal than a stressful attempt at something which might pay somewhat but not game-changingly more but also has a number of likely outcomes which aren't as good.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#83
post #67
post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

I don't know what the bias is called but there is this belief that many successful people have or try to bestow that they "did it all themselves" and "you can too". And in generally many people actually believe this. That is the "self made man" story. Many people believe that the starting point doesn't matter. That outside help doesn't matter. That ash to riches is possible and happens often but the reality is this e…

> I don't know what the bias is called but there is this belief that many successful people have or try to bestow that they "did it all themselves" and "you can too".

This is a combination of egocentric bias[0] and post-hoc rationalization [1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egocentric_bias

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Re: Survivorship Bias

#84
post #38

I believe that success does largely depend on capitalizing on lucky breaks. However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. What matters is can you spot lucky breaks,and when you do spot them, how do you react? I think it's very possible to train yourself to have the awareness to be able to analyze situations, recognize lucky breaks frequently and just run with them. In a word, you could call…

“Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity"

But only if you know in advance what to prepare for.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#85
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What else would you do instead? Acknowledge when luck was the major reason for your success. Don't stand in front of a room of people and tell them if they weren't so damn lazy, they could have hundreds of millions of dollars as well. In other words, if luck played any major part in your success, you really have no justification in lecturing people on how to be good at something.

While luck will definitely have played a non-trivial role in any meaningful "made it" success story, it's equally disingenuous to ascribe success to luck alone . Never leaving your comfort zone, never taking a chance, never accepting that improving yourself will often require hard work and real sacrifice and never venturing out into the world all but guarantees that you will never get lucky. Casually explaining away…

That's the same point I tried to make in another comment. Of course luck plays a role to some degree. But this obsession over luck as the key to the success of others seems unhealthy to me. Just from my position as a person approaching 50, it seems that it's an obsession that dominates more in the upcoming generations than in ones past where the mantra that "hard work leads to success" was a lot more common.

Once you take on the mindset that all success is luck, what's the motivation for trying at all?

Re: Survivorship Bias

#86
post #3

Meta: I can't believe how often xkcd nails it.

The irony here is that for those who are reading too much into the comic, logically they must believe that xkcd's success is just luck.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#87
post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

> Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. I don't have the actual numbers (does anyone?), but my guess would be that universally given For example, there are millions of apps on App Store. Most of those are/were somebody's startup...

Depends what you mean by "startup" and indeed "success".

As mentioned elsewhere on this thread, small business survival rates are surprisingly high these days - around 60% depending on whose figures you believe.

(I think that's too high, and suspect it doesn't include digital businesses to the extent it should. But 40% wouldn't surprise me, across all sectors and industries.)

Wannabe-unicorn success rates at getting to unicorn status are, OTOH, very low indeed. But the rewards are arguably commensurate with that.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#88
post #38

I believe that success does largely depend on capitalizing on lucky breaks. However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. What matters is can you spot lucky breaks,and when you do spot them, how do you react? I think it's very possible to train yourself to have the awareness to be able to analyze situations, recognize lucky breaks frequently and just run with them. In a word, you could call…

>However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. Why do you assume this?

Everyone experience change. Not all change is bad, some change is good. This would be sufficient for "everyone experience lucky breaks" to be true.

Sometimes a change can be terrible and good. Whole family dead, house gone? Terrible. Being free to move to a new area, perhaps find new opportunity - could be (in a different sense) good.

Only a crazy person would want such a disaster, but sometimes surviving something like that if one is able to shamble on through life - will in hindsight be the point were life changed, in some ways, for the better.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#89
post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

It boggles my mind how many people in Dallas are in the $5-50MM net worth range. I am smack in the middle of that range and feel quite unremarkable.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#90
post #82

This one is also great: http://www.wisdomination.com/what-is-survivorship-bias/ By far, the best explanation I've ever seen !

That link turns into a download, at least in Chrome.

I just opened it, also in Chrome, and it took me to the website
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