411–420 of 604 posts
As an aside, he strikes me as someone who's been told he has some short measure of time left to live and is trying to make the most of it. By all measures, he's swinging for the fences.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…
> If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. Or there might be a breakthrough in carbon capture, converting atmospheric CO2 into petroleum and we can drive combustion engines forever. CO2 capture is an area of active research and it's entirely possible that advances there will make Tesla and Solar City moot.
I don't know how likely that is. Even if carbon capture comes through, the low hanging fruit of fossil fuels are gone so now we have to get more invasive in harvesting the hard-to-get ones (strip mining, fracking, etc). It's likely that even with C02 emissions taken care of that we'll want electric vehicles and renewable power in general.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…
> If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. Or there might be a breakthrough in carbon capture, converting atmospheric CO2 into petroleum and we can drive combustion engines forever. CO2 capture is an area of active research and it's entirely possible that advances there will make Tesla and Solar City moot.
CCS + Power2Gas + synthetic fuel is unlikely to be cost competitive. It's not like climate scientists don't consider that option. In fact the only half way plausible scenarios for reaching the two degree target involve going carbon negative after 2050. And synthetic fossil fuels are probably the only way to make airtravel carbon neutral.
Full de-carbonisation requires a multi-pronged approach, and cars are at a point where electric vehicles are already very close to conventional vehicles. Within a factor of two or three for range, so totally sufficient for most needs, and not much more expensive. It's one of the better options we have to de-carbonize a huge sector. Second only to the energy production sector itself.
Compare to food production which looks absolutely hopeless (the two degree pathways often assume we manage to implement massive dietary changes see e.g. here http://tool.globalcalculator.org )
I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas: - Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage) - Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, wi…
They acquired Cruise Automation: https://www.getcruise.com/ or https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/cru10_c.jp... .
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I have heard many times that the traditional car companies are heavily outsourced aside from the drivetrain. It's true, but I don't think it matters. Traditional automakers rely on suppliers for all kinds of parts on cars: headlights, wipers, tires, glass, airbags, and many electronic modules (auto-dimming mirrors, blind-spot radars, etc.). However they do tend to always keep the body/chassis and the drivetrain in-h…
Moving to EVs, they either outsource the drivetrain (as the comment I replied to was suggesting, and as GM is doing with the Bolt) or start doing EV drivetrains in house. Either way, they lose the advantage of their long experience with ICE drivetrains.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let me disagree with some of the points: > Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now * no battery production facilities * no charging infrastructure * no vertical integration (unlike Tesla, Ford has to sell through the dealershits - I see it as a big disadvantage) > They know how to mass produce cars Yes - but can they produce the car the public will want in three years from now, when affo…
> unlike Tesla, Ford has to sell through the dealershits - I see it as a big disadvantage My, what a strong argument.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. What does this even mean? People like to leave stuff in their cars (e.g. mug, gym bag). They like them to be at their preferred level of cleanliness or disorder. Some even use them as a means of personal expression. If "mobility" were so desirable, ZipCar would have taken off 10 years ago. The "mobility" market will be about the…
Exactly. I like knowing that there are extra diapers and a change of clothing for each kid in my car should I need them. I carry enough in to cover my current needs, but as anyone with kids known sometimes that isn't enough. I know many people who keep golf clubs in their car because sometimes a salesman is looking to round out a 4-some. I like going to walmart/lowes... over lunch and leaving my treasures in my car.…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines You mean largely trouble-free engines that run on ultra-cheap gas? ICE has environmental issues, of course, but the idea that electric is universally superior is questionable. There's no range anxiety with gas and any backyard mechanic can fix most issues. Your locked down $100,000 IoT car is a completely different beast. >Much of this will be of zero value…
Gas isn't "ultra-cheap" in most other parts of the world, especially Europe and Japan. Norwegians are buying Teslas at an absurd rate. Watch for Europe to switch to EVs sooner; their main roadblock is the charging infrastructure. Unlike here in America, where suburbanites all have garages that can be easily retrofitted with a charging port, Europeans don't have that luxury usually. They're a lot like the eco-consciou…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…
> Simply get 10% of mobility and 10% of electricity storage and they'll have justified well above their current valuation. Please show your math. > Tesla will basically take the market from coal and petroleum. And you base this off, what, exactly? Sometimes I think that half of HackerNews didn't even know solar or battery backups were a thing before Tesla. These are competitive spaces where Tesla has essentially no m…
My prediction has always been that all traditional car manufacturers will jump into the market with gusto at the next inflection point in battery technology. The current state of the art battery technology for vehicles is heavy and has less than desirable energy density. The minute a new technology can deliver twice the energy density at the same or lower weight and lower cost most established car manufacturers will…
I don't really know about the gigafactory, but it seems logic that a % of it is dedicated to R&D and growth. Plus, this battery tech doesn't create itself, if I remember reading correctly Tesla is making some advancements in here as well.
