Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#371

Post by wang_li » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:33 PM UTC

Certhas wrote: post #309

erikpukinskis wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…

> If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines.

Or there might be a breakthrough in carbon capture, converting atmospheric CO2 into petroleum and we can drive combustion engines forever.

CO2 capture is an area of active research and it's entirely possible that advances there will make Tesla and Solar City moot.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#372

Post by moftz » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:33 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #325

username223 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. What does this even mean? People like to leave stuff in their cars (e.g. mug, gym bag). They like them to be at their preferred level of cleanliness or disorder. Some even use them as a means of personal expression. If "mobility" were so desirable, ZipCar would have taken off 10 years ago. The "mobility" market will be about the…

Exactly. I like knowing that there are extra diapers and a change of clothing for each kid in my car should I need them. I carry enough in to cover my current needs, but as anyone with kids known sometimes that isn't enough. I know many people who keep golf clubs in their car because sometimes a salesman is looking to round out a 4-some. I like going to walmart/lowes... over lunch and leaving my treasures in my car.…

The car sharing won't cover everyone's needs and some people will stick to keeping their own car. I'd imagine people living in urban areas are more likely to use a car sharing service since it's uneconomical to own a car in most cities. I'd imagine the suburbs will be a mix of sharing and ownership. I can imagine a family having a car they keep for weekends or whenever the parents and kids need to go somewhere but they still use a car sharing service during the weekdays when mom takes the family car to work and dad need to get to work too.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#373

Post by berberous » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:34 PM UTC

cynicalkane wrote: post #324

calpaterson wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, market cap is not everything. Specifically it is not enterprise value, which is the correct measure of the value of a business. Market cap is the value of the equity. Enterprise value is the value of the business (ie including debt). Tesla's EV is $52bn. Ford's EV is $150bn.

> enterprise value, which is the correct measure of the value of a business Not even Warren Buffet thinks this. In economics, the correct measure of a value of a business is the future discounted expected value of cash flow and external utility. There's almost no way to measure this directly so major simplifying assumptions are made when applying this definition in practice.

I think his point is that DCF of a company's free cash flow is an attempt to estimate enterprise value, not equity value.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#374

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:34 PM UTC

username223 wrote: post #366

criley2 wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it shocking that something as simple as personal belongings would be a "lock in" to existing technology. It's like saying "I prefer my horse, I can feed it grass off the side of the road, but you have to find some fancy petro-chemical station for your auto-mobile? Insane! My gas grows next to the road!" I get it, but try to put yourself in the place of someone younger who doesn't make decisions like "I would n…

It's not "personal belongings," it's "personal space." Hot-sheeting happens where sleeping space is extremely limited, like oil drilling camps, but it hasn't taken off among the general population, despite the fact that you only use your bed for around 1/3 of the day. People are willing to pay for their own beds and, frequently, their own apartments or houses, despite the fact that most of that space goes unused most…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#375

Post by netfire » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:35 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #325

username223 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. What does this even mean? People like to leave stuff in their cars (e.g. mug, gym bag). They like them to be at their preferred level of cleanliness or disorder. Some even use them as a means of personal expression. If "mobility" were so desirable, ZipCar would have taken off 10 years ago. The "mobility" market will be about the…

Exactly. I like knowing that there are extra diapers and a change of clothing for each kid in my car should I need them. I carry enough in to cover my current needs, but as anyone with kids known sometimes that isn't enough. I know many people who keep golf clubs in their car because sometimes a salesman is looking to round out a 4-some. I like going to walmart/lowes... over lunch and leaving my treasures in my car.…

Car sharing (if self-driven) does provide an additional perk--time and money saved trying to find a place to park and paying for that parking. In addition, people turning into parking lots/garages (or worse parallel parking) interrupt the flow of traffic, making congestion worse. There's also many other potential improvements that self-driving cars could use to reduce congestion (faster speeds, reaction times, communication between cars, etc) and greatly lessen the commute during peak times

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#376

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:36 PM UTC

MR4D wrote: post #233

iamatworknow wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What is this based on? It's based on nothing other than the weird contempt you see for large, established corporations in the SV crowd. Big established corporation = big established rule book and management hierarchy = stifled innovation. Nevermind the fact that most of the major technological breakthroughs of the past 100 years were developed by the research wings of big corporations (Bell Labs, defense contractors…

I'm not the parent poster, but I'd offer one reason why some people feel this way - Ford is a car company, while Tesla is a software company. Big difference in expectations, capital expenditures, etc. Based on committed capital, I think this is at least partially correct.

Ford is a car company, Tesla is a technology company. People who don't get that have never lived in the rust belt before.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#377

Post by criley2 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:37 PM UTC

Judgmentality wrote: post #368

criley2 wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it shocking that something as simple as personal belongings would be a "lock in" to existing technology. It's like saying "I prefer my horse, I can feed it grass off the side of the road, but you have to find some fancy petro-chemical station for your auto-mobile? Insane! My gas grows next to the road!" I get it, but try to put yourself in the place of someone younger who doesn't make decisions like "I would n…

Some people just like owning cars. I live in San Francisco and don't currently own a car, but I want one. Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere. Different people have different values. Also I'm quite young, so I don't think age is a strict delineation.

"Some people just like owning cars."

Yes I did point out that most Americans and many people are conditioned from birth to value car ownership, even when it's a poor financial decision.

"Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere

As I told the other guy: Stop predicting failure based on problems, put on your creator and builder hat, and solve the problem.

Why not have pet friendly vehicles available at a small charge, guaranteed clean?

It bothers me that these problems are so easy to solve and yet people are so willing to write off a future possible technology without so much as thinking through any of the solutions.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#378

Post by mohaine » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:41 PM UTC

cr0sh wrote: post #290

sqeaky wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aluminum body is exactly the kind of iteration that was being talked about. It is neat, but its not and all new drive train on a totally different tech. Aluminium is a pretty well understood material, while self driving cars are virgin territory. Tesla is making larger swings and potentially accepting larger risk. Ford is... iterating.

I wonder if Tesla is contemplating building and selling a half-ton pickup truck to compete against Ford's F-150 (and others)? That's what I'm kinda waiting for - I don't want a car; I like having a pickup. Ideally, it would be 4WD (and my next pickup will be - right now my off-road vehicle is an Isuzu VehiCROSS that I'm pouring money into). I would love it if my next pickup truck was a self-driving, off-road, 4WD ele…

According to the "Master Plan part 2", a "new type" of pickup is in the works. That is pretty much all that has been released at this point though.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#379

Post by Judgmentality » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:41 PM UTC

criley2 wrote: post #377

Judgmentality wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people just like owning cars. I live in San Francisco and don't currently own a car, but I want one. Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere. Different people have different values. Also I'm quite young, so I don't think age is a strict delineation.

"Some people just like owning cars." Yes I did point out that most Americans and many people are conditioned from birth to value car ownership, even when it's a poor financial decision. "Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere As I told the other guy: Stop predicting failure based on problems, put on your creator and builder hat, and solve the problem. Why not have pet friendly vehicles availa…

You seem very defensive. I was just pointing out that I don't own a car and live in the epicenter of the ride-sharing revolution, and I'd much rather go back to owning a car.

Regarding the dog, I'm just pointing out something that currently doesn't work for me. Until they fix it I don't care - right now their solution does not help me and nobody has done anything to address it.

My point is simple. Right now owning a car is better than not owning a car for me. Until that changes I will want to own a car. If you don't want to own a car then good for you - different people have different desires.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#380

Post by criley2 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 8:41 PM UTC

username223 wrote: post #366

criley2 wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it shocking that something as simple as personal belongings would be a "lock in" to existing technology. It's like saying "I prefer my horse, I can feed it grass off the side of the road, but you have to find some fancy petro-chemical station for your auto-mobile? Insane! My gas grows next to the road!" I get it, but try to put yourself in the place of someone younger who doesn't make decisions like "I would n…

It's not "personal belongings," it's "personal space." Hot-sheeting happens where sleeping space is extremely limited, like oil drilling camps, but it hasn't taken off among the general population, despite the fact that you only use your bed for around 1/3 of the day. People are willing to pay for their own beds and, frequently, their own apartments or houses, despite the fact that most of that space goes unused most…

Conflating a home and a car is a bad argument. Homes have been required for hundreds of thousands of years. Shelter has been a human need since before humanity.

Cars have not been. The earliest proto-human sought shelter from a storm. They did not seek personalized shelter during transportation.

I don't like the argument at all, and I think it's a cop out, a slippery slope argument.

>Do you AirBnB your bed (at hourly rates)? Do you AirPantsAndT your clothes? Most people don't.

This is just a very feeble slippery slope that ignores the very real differences.

Yes, clothing and shelter have been humans needs for far longer than civilization itself.

Can you say the same for micro-space in a personal transport?

Were humans owning personal space inside of pack animals 10,000 years ago?

It's a bad argument. There's no slippery slope here. Homes and clothes are fundamentally different than cars.

You cannot live a civilized life without a home and clothes. You can live a civilized modern life without a car. Obviously we approach higher order needs differently than lower order.