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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#291

Post by erikpukinskis »

skdotdan wrote: post #263
sxates wrote: post #140

I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas: - Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage) - Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, wi…

All of these products can potentially be commoditized. But their brand is strong.

Commoditization is never instantaneous. You start of highly competitive because the products are all immature. During this period people who can differentiate become market leaders. Companies without R&D staffs can't compete yet because by the time they copy last year's product, next years product is out.

After a while, usually decades, commodity producers take over the lions share of the market. The high end is captured by one or two of the market leaders. Being first to market helps you get there, but you still have to fight for that position.

Look at iPhone. It was the best and the cheapest smartphone for probably a decade. Now Apple only has what, 20% of the market? But they have all the profits. The other 80% goes to commodity manufacturers but they don't make any money.

Tesla hopes to be that for mobility and home energy. Even if they fail, they'll still make a huge amount of money in the ramp up, before the commodity manufacturers eat their lunch. They're the market leader right now, so the prize is theirs to lose.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#292

Post by iamatworknow »

vkou wrote: post #246
MR4D wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not the parent poster, but I'd offer one reason why some people feel this way - Ford is a car company, while Tesla is a software company. Big difference in expectations, capital expenditures, etc. Based on committed capital, I think this is at least partially correct.

If Tesla is a 'software company', the last thing I'd ever want to do is buy a car from them. As anyone who has every used software will attest to: Most of the time, we can count our lucky stars if our commercial software 'works' for a year and a half. Cue all the: "If Microsoft/Apple/Google/Facebook/Snapchat made cars" jokes.

Definitely agree with you there. We're already seeing some of the more unpleasant idiosyncrasies of the software world with Tesla.

I, for one, kinda like driving a car that doesn't require an internet connection, doesn't have forced OTA updates, doesn't send analytics data back to base, and won't potentially be bricked if someday the manufacturer goes out of business. Other manufactuers are starting to do the same thing but I'm going to enjoy my "dumb car" for as long as it lasts. Hopefully when fully electric vehicles become more mainstream and affordable there will still be an option to get a "dumb" version.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#294

Post by aanm1988 »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #275
iamacynic wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now according to who? your average HN reader who basically hates cars? yeah, sure. the guy who hates cars is bearish on ford, shocking. what about all the people buying raptors and gt350s and fgts and fists and fosts, hand over fist? do you even know what i'm talking about? do these insanely popular cars even register on your radar…

The kind of people who buy raptors and gt350s are a tiny fraction of the market compared to the people who just want to get to work. Tesla isn't interested in car enthusiasts, they want to be the default answer to the question "How do I get from point A to point B for $1?"

Those people will just buy another Toyota. They aren't spending 35k+ on a Tesla.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#295

Post by Malice »

emodendroket wrote: post #284
erikpukinskis wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The kind of people who buy raptors and gt350s are a tiny fraction of the market compared to the people who just want to get to work. Tesla isn't interested in car enthusiasts, they want to be the default answer to the question "How do I get from point A to point B for $1?"

The most popular cars are crossovers and SUVs, a segment Tesla hasn't shown any interest in so far.

http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/2/15155572/tesla-q1-productio...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#296

Post by cr0sh »

Neliquat wrote: post #226
beamatronic wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you can drive the latter in the car pool lane

You can drive anything in that lane with a passenger. Just sayin.

IIRC, here in sand-land (AZ) you can drive solo in our OHV lanes with a vehicle that has less than four wheels (mainly motorcycles - but if you have the cash for one of those nice 3-wheeled "cars", you're still good).

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#297

Post by paganel »

iamacynic wrote: post #251
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

> Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now according to who? your average HN reader who basically hates cars? yeah, sure. the guy who hates cars is bearish on ford, shocking. what about all the people buying raptors and gt350s and fgts and fists and fosts, hand over fist? do you even know what i'm talking about? do these insanely popular cars even register on your radar…

For what it's worth I'm a (European) tech-guy who would love to buy a Ford Focus RS, the only issue is that I don't have the financial means to do that. And I also love their Ranger line, both the new one and the one from the late '90s - early 2000s, whose models are cheaper than the Hilux and whose engines are just as reliable (the only issue seems to be rust, which inevitably sets in after 250-300,000km).

I will also avoid buying a car connected to the Internet/which has a tablet-like dashboard for as long as I could, and I say that as a guy who has done web-programming for the last 10+ years.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#298

Post by kilotaras »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #224
syncsynchalt wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when the price undercuts other forms of power generation, you won't even need subsidies anymore. I'm guessing it'll be a while before this is true in latitudes like Alberta, though.

Alberta latitude is same as much of the European latitude. City of Edmonton, Alberta is at 53 latitude, Calgary at 51. Berlin is at 52. Amsterdam 52.

People tend to underestimate how far north Europe is. Europe's climate is a lot milder than North Americas, due to, mostly, Gulf Stream.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#299

Post by kakwa_ »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111
oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

On on side, Ford, and most other companies in the automobile industry, are big corporation. The bigger it gets, the more difficult it is to change. And all the sub-contracting done in the industry might lead to even more difficulties to move things around.

However changing from petrol to electricity doesn't seem to be a drastic change. An important part of car making is changed (engine and energy), but it's not a radical shift (the rest of the car is still the same).

Today, Tesla represents a very small fraction of the number of cars produced in the world. There are still quite expensive, even Model 3, and there are not as convenient as current gas cars (long recharge time and lower autonomy). EV are definitely interesting but they are still in their infancy.

It's still to early for big car markers to shift completely. But the shift will come in 5 to 10 years, then it will be an interesting moment, we will see which companies have prepared enough to jump in the good wagon, and which companies will die.

As a side note, cars, either gas or electric have always amazed me, and not in a good way, from an energy and ecology standpoint. A 1500Kg vehicle to move on average 1.5 persons or 120Kg seems a huge waste of energy.

I do see their usefulness in low density environments such as rural areas as it's a system that doesn't require a complex infrastructure. But in dense environments like cities, transports needs could be far more efficiently provided by public transport and coherent urban planning. I truly hope that cars will not be as common in the second half of the XXI century as there are today.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#300

Post by username223 »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #273
allendoerfer wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

> The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility.

What does this even mean? People like to leave stuff in their cars (e.g. mug, gym bag). They like them to be at their preferred level of cleanliness or disorder. Some even use them as a means of personal expression.

If "mobility" were so desirable, ZipCar would have taken off 10 years ago. The "mobility" market will be about the size of the taxi, bus, and train market.

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