Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#261

Post by snambi » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:34 PM UTC

dkrich wrote: post #126

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Does anyone pre-order a F150?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#262

Post by jansan » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:35 PM UTC

rebootthesystem wrote: post #32

My prediction has always been that all traditional car manufacturers will jump into the market with gusto at the next inflection point in battery technology. The current state of the art battery technology for vehicles is heavy and has less than desirable energy density. The minute a new technology can deliver twice the energy density at the same or lower weight and lower cost most established car manufacturers will…

Some other car manufacturers could do this intantly. Nissan has the best selling electric car (Leaf) on the market and Toyota has some kick ass hybrid engines (that's an electric engine AND a combustion engine) available for most of their cars. If they decided that battery only cars is the way to go they could switch from one day to the other. But they don't.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#263

Post by skdotdan » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:36 PM UTC

sxates wrote: post #140

I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas: - Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage) - Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, wi…

All of these products can potentially be commoditized. But their brand is strong.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#264

Post by paulpauper » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:38 PM UTC

8ytecoder wrote: post #227

hodder wrote: post #223

Can anyone long the stock who is bullish about the future growth of production, cars, batteries etc write down some quick napkin math on future expectations that would justify your investment at this valuation? I have yet to hear a bull case with any actual math behind it, but am willing to hear you out. Something like: cars sold by yr, Margins. battery wall, solar sold by year. Margins. multiples assumed on revenue…

If everything in investment is about Math (and Math only) we'll have a perfect market. I'm long on Tesla and I totally believe the current valuation is out of proportion. However, I know Tesla can do a lot more and better than they do currently. I do think they have a lot of potential and can overtake other car makers. I won't buy more shares but I'll hold on to them for the foreseeable future.

without some uncertainty, there is no market

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#265

Post by giarc » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:39 PM UTC

syncsynchalt wrote: post #213

giarc wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government subsidies probably. My provincial government (Alberta) just introduced $40 million in solar subsidies. I don't think Solar City operates in AB, but I'm sure other states will come up with similar subsidies to replace the federal one that I believe is expiring.

And when the price undercuts other forms of power generation, you won't even need subsidies anymore. I'm guessing it'll be a while before this is true in latitudes like Alberta, though.

I agree. I don't think we'll see large scale solar power generation in Alberta. The gov subsidies are mostly for residential use. They introduced a revenue neutral carbon tax Jan 1, 2017 and need to return the tax to green projects. This is just one of them.

Alberta does have quite a bit of wind generation though. They blow pretty consistently off the mountains and we have a pretty low density population in the south end of the province. Hopefully under the NDP (left wing) government, we can see some expansion of this. Prior to this, oil sands was the only game in town.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#266

Post by paulpauper » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:40 PM UTC

imgabe wrote: post #248

dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Pretty much everyone who wants a Ford has one, or could buy one. There's not a lot of growth left for Ford. Their only hope is to steal a few customers from the other automakers, but those other automakers will steal a few back. It's unlikely that large numbers of people who don't currently own a Ford are going to buy one any time soon. Tesla on the other hand, has millions of potential customers who would and will b…

exactly. Ford is stagnant. Tesla has much more potential.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#267

Post by neuralFatigue » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:42 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/03/ford-tops-the-list-of-auto...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#268

Post by sqeaky » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:42 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #180

sqeaky wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aluminum body is exactly the kind of iteration that was being talked about. It is neat, but its not and all new drive train on a totally different tech. Aluminium is a pretty well understood material, while self driving cars are virgin territory. Tesla is making larger swings and potentially accepting larger risk. Ford is... iterating.

What innovation is Tesla making? Electric cars are not new. In fact the first production car to reach 60mph back in the day was electric. Aluminum in a production car is a lot more innovative that an electric car. (li batteries in a production car though is innovative)

Electric cars aren't new... if you really want to compare modern vehicles to those it pile batteries. When the roadster came out there was nothing like it.

Electric vehicles prior to the Telsas where research projects and low torque ultralight budget vehicles. Listing the differences between a Telsa and its closest successor, if you could pick one is not an easy task. Listing the difference between an F-150 and and F-150 with and aluminum was already done this sentence the hardest part was spelling aluminum.

You can pick an threshold for choosing what is evolution and revolution, I am just trying to choose a reasonable one.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#269

Post by GVIrish » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:43 PM UTC

imgabe wrote: post #248

dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Pretty much everyone who wants a Ford has one, or could buy one. There's not a lot of growth left for Ford. Their only hope is to steal a few customers from the other automakers, but those other automakers will steal a few back. It's unlikely that large numbers of people who don't currently own a Ford are going to buy one any time soon. Tesla on the other hand, has millions of potential customers who would and will b…

> Pretty much everyone who wants a Ford has one, or could buy one.

Yeah but it's not like people buy one car, and never buy one again. Ford sells over 800,000 units of just the F150 every single year.

Now it's true that they don't have as much potential for growth because they've reached a sort of stable place in the market. Maybe sales can grow a few percentage points year over year but Ford is unlikely to jump by 20% the way Tesla can.

But that's not really saying much as Ford is a mature company with a complete lineup and Tesla is only on its 4th model of car.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#270

Post by paulpauper » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:43 PM UTC

hackuser wrote: post #237

Often discussed outside HN, but almost never heard here: Many are investing in his relationship with President Trump. At least two major investment banks [0][1][2] advised their clients of it and many other observers and investors think so too. [3][4] Again, outside HN it's not an uncommon idea; just search a news aggregator for "musk trump". EDIT: It's a very serious problem if we lose free market competition, and i…

Tech stocks such as Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, and Google keep going up. ..so much for the myth that Trump is bad for tech. Trump wants the tech community and these tech companies to succeed, as they are American capitalist success stories.