Earlier quoted context omitted.
My Focus ST is pretty sweet
Isn't that one built in Germany?
Focus ST is made in Michigan until 2018 when it moves to Mexico.
Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
221–230 of 604 posts
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#222Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…
> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"
That's not how the reporting works at all. Not at all.
Make no mistake, as much as Tesla is loved by the Tech crowd they are currently nothing compared to Ford and other established auto makers.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#223Can anyone long the stock who is bullish about the future growth of production, cars, batteries etc write down some quick napkin math on future expectations that would justify your investment at this valuation? I have yet to hear a bull case with any actual math behind it, but am willing to hear you out.
Something like:
cars sold by yr, Margins.
battery wall, solar sold by year. Margins.
multiples assumed on revenue and earnings by yr, and at mature phase.
dilution of equity assumed to scale production.
Can someone address those things without hand waiving them away for me? Again, I'm not long or short the stock, but havent heard a coherent argument with math for going long.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
Government subsidies probably. My provincial government (Alberta) just introduced $40 million in solar subsidies. I don't think Solar City operates in AB, but I'm sure other states will come up with similar subsidies to replace the federal one that I believe is expiring.
And when the price undercuts other forms of power generation, you won't even need subsidies anymore. I'm guessing it'll be a while before this is true in latitudes like Alberta, though.
Alberta latitude is same as much of the European latitude. City of Edmonton, Alberta is at 53 latitude, Calgary at 51. Berlin is at 52. Amsterdam 52.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#225Bill Ford gave a talk at SXSW, and I asked him the question "Why hasn't Ford built the gigafactory". He gave IMHO a really weak answer about how they weren't sure the economics of it worked out. Big car OEMs have so much invested in terms of R&D, brand and emotionally in the combustion engine that I think most are just not going to be able to make the jump to EVs. Nissan and BMW are trying, but they are still making…
I think they'll be caught with the pants down.
For instance: The government of Sweden just announced suggested legislation for june 2018 that will severely punish any new registrations of non-electric vehicles (the tax penalty is linear to the co2-emissions/driven km above a certain treshold.) I think it goes sort of halfway towards Norway's current policy. (Which is rather extreme, and something they as a nation can afford, being a major oil exporter.)
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#226Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#227Can anyone long the stock who is bullish about the future growth of production, cars, batteries etc write down some quick napkin math on future expectations that would justify your investment at this valuation? I have yet to hear a bull case with any actual math behind it, but am willing to hear you out. Something like: cars sold by yr, Margins. battery wall, solar sold by year. Margins. multiples assumed on revenue…
If everything in investment is about Math (and Math only) we'll have a perfect market. I'm long on Tesla and I totally believe the current valuation is out of proportion. However, I know Tesla can do a lot more and better than they do currently. I do think they have a lot of potential and can overtake other car makers. I won't buy more shares but I'll hold on to them for the foreseeable future.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.
> it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion Is that true? $100 is such a small amount of money that you're completely at the mercy of the supply chain. When you have $100B to spend, you are the supply chain (or at least a major part of it). Big money always makes the rules. They're either making money off of you now or planning to in the future. Now you might say, "but wait, plenty of prod…
Ask Eric Schmidt why Google has billions laying around in cash. You don't actually have to since peter thiel did: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Q26XIKtwXQ
You can skip to 3:00 for an answer.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#229I've been expecting this ever since I test drove a Tesla last year and got the same feeling I got back in 2008 when I saw an iPhone 3G. The market isn't betting on just another car company but on. car + energy (electricity instead of gas) + TaaS (Transportation as a Service). Tesla has a tremendous headstart on this and in 5-10 years I expect a bloodbath like the smart phone wars, with a only 2-3 main players left e.g. Tesla:Apple::Waymo:Android.
Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
I highly recommend Wired's article about GM's long-term bet in developing the Bolt. It talks about many ways that developing an electric car is not just a matter of adding batteries to your existing expertise in car manufacturing. e.g.: > Nearly everything changes when you opt for a fundamentally different power train, so GM’s greatest advantage—more than a century of experience building cars—was all but moot. Car st…
Is there an echo in here?
Thanks, fixed.