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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#181

Post by kamaal »

dkrich wrote: post #126
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Sorry but this is like Nokia saying they are spending all this money to make their phones and manufacturing processes awesome, all the while when a iPhone is getting designed somewhere.

Incremental changes is what most senior management folks at places like Ford can do because that is what they teach at MBA schools using linear growth graphs.

Self driving tech is really novelty thing now. And nobody expects it to work anytime soon.

The real deal now is mind-blowing battery tech. Batteries that are rugged, can charge quickly and a car that can give a big range on a charge.

Meanwhile talking of how efficiently somebody can build an ICE based car is really like someone talking about how quickly they can produce horse carriages. Doesn't really matter because that disruption is happening else where.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#182

Post by mvpu »

thinkling wrote: post #158
mvpu wrote: post #144

Comparing Tesla with Ford is like comparing Ford with (GM + Shell + Hertz). Tesla is an energy company not an automobile company. It plans to sell you new ways to capture (solar panels), store (power wall), and consume (cars) energy. It also plans to make cars fully autonomous and ownership free. Ford will obviously compete with Tesla in some segments is not a primary competition for Tesla.

What you said is correct but immediately raises the question "what's the value of that integration?" Obviously GM and Shell have been successful and profitable without being integrated, and it's not clear that merging would yield them advantages. Why do these advantages exist in the electric energy arena?

Can't predict numbers but some obvious integration points are... a) on the hardware side a solar panel customer could also buy the power wall (natural extension) and car, which can yield very high LTV per consumer; b) on the services side a fully autonomous ride sharing means low operating cost; c) if Solar City continues to lease out the panels then Tesla could become the biggest solar powered grid network on the planet.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#183

Post by vvanders »

Avshalom wrote: post #151
stellar678 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

An electric f150 is kind of the dream actually. Electric is great for fleet vehicles and it has all the low end torque your frame can handle. Plus trucks have plenty of space to put batteries, under the bed, between the bed and the cab, that can be nice and rectangular. Electric drive train means more effective ground clearance for a given ride height too because you don't need a drive shaft or exhaust. Regenerative…

Also the ability to run 240v + 120v right off the inverter for the pack would be a huge thing for contractors. I know many then end up hauling a genset out just because quite a few sites don't have dedicated power.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#184

Post by crabasa »

martinko wrote: post #161
crabasa wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course Capex isn't included, but its direct consequence (depreciation) is. Tesla incurred almost $1B of depreciation in 2016: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials

So I dont see how the quote ties in with your statements about Tesla knowing where to invest (=capex)

Let's break it down for you:

    1. Telsa has many investment ideas 
    2. Tesla spends massive amounts of CAPEX 
    3. Tesla incurs large amount of depreciation 
    4. Tesla's net income goes down

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#185

Post by samstave »

petra wrote: post #148
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

Also ford is investing in on-demand shuttles service, offered at low cost, and expanding to 8 cities this year. Executed well this could become very popular.

More info on this please

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#186

Post by lutorm »

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #77
cmarschner wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Combustion engines in vehicles like the F series trucks aren't going away any time soon. You need generational leaps in battery technology and safety to compete with those trucks. The whole "rugged, dependable" thing that they play on the television is not just for show. I've got a former co-worker who buys a new F-350 supercrew every couple of years before selling it and the depreciation is less than a lease for a m…

If it's so rugged and dependable, why does he need to buy a new one every couple of years?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#187

Post by John23832 »

jread wrote: post #173
Zhenya wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from the safety statements, you're comparing a ~$35K car to a $90k+ luxury car? What about a Bolt?

My point is I don't think Ford is even remotely taking electric vehicles seriously. With a little better engineering the Focus electric could have been a decent $35k electric car.

The article addressed Ford because of the market cap issue, but, out of the major american car manufacturers, I think GM is a much better match for tesla.

My sleeper is MB though, overall.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#188

Post by John23832 »

lutorm wrote: post #186
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Combustion engines in vehicles like the F series trucks aren't going away any time soon. You need generational leaps in battery technology and safety to compete with those trucks. The whole "rugged, dependable" thing that they play on the television is not just for show. I've got a former co-worker who buys a new F-350 supercrew every couple of years before selling it and the depreciation is less than a lease for a m…

If it's so rugged and dependable, why does he need to buy a new one every couple of years?

consumerism

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#189

Post by MegaButts »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111
oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

> Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future

Ford bet $1 billion on Argo.ai to build self-driving cars, and they also acquired Chariot. They are planning on using these to roll out self-driving vans in 2021 to compete with Uber, Lyft, etc.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2017...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#190

Post by pbtflakes »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #168
dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Market perception. Ford's P/E ratio is 9.89. IBM's P/E ratio is 14.02. Facebook's P/E ratio is 40.79. Tesla's P/E ratio is infinity since the E is negative. I'm sure Ford has done many incremental innovations, I didn't say they didn't. IBM does the same thing, and has "record profits" every few years also. Its just the market isn't expecting the next big thing to come from Ford, while they are expecting that from Tes…

That's not how the math works out, according to Nasdaq.com Tesla's P/E was -53.63 for 2016 and estimated -103.48 for 2017.
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