Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 604 posts

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#131

Post by Alupis »

sillysaurus3 wrote: post #112
Alupis wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company A trillion dollars? For a niche/luxury car company? What fantasy is that based on? > it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand While enormous to Tesla, actual demand is pretty small compared to other car companies. It doesn't help that even the most "affordable" Tesla is far more expensive than the average competitor's EV or h…

If batteries reduce the demand for oil, oil's value will start to transfer to batteries.

> If batteries reduce the demand for oil

That's a big IF.

Also, it ignores the fact that every car manufacturer already has a plethora of fully electric, or hybrid models available (and they are, on average, far cheaper than the cheapest base model Tesla can offer), and the markets still don't buy them.

This also ignores the fact that many companies make great batteries, and Tesla is only recently sitting down to that table. Why wouldn't Panasonic be that "trillion dollar" company? Or Sony? Or Fujitsu?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#132

Post by nojvek »

dsugarman wrote: post #55
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

Tesla seems to be nimble and quick. They are making the future of cars like making software. Quick and iterative. If they can make batteries cheaper than anyone else. If they can make electric cars cheaper than equivalent gas cars for long term then they are clear winner.

It didn't take Apple much to take Nokia out of the game. Nokia had smartphones on the agenda for a long time. The problem was that wasn't their only focus. Apple went all hands into the iPhone.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#133

Post by Arizhel »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #76
cmarschner wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

>a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines You mean largely trouble-free engines that run on ultra-cheap gas? ICE has environmental issues, of course, but the idea that electric is universally superior is questionable. There's no range anxiety with gas and any backyard mechanic can fix most issues. Your locked down $100,000 IoT car is a completely different beast. >Much of this will be of zero value…

Gas isn't "ultra-cheap" in most other parts of the world, especially Europe and Japan. Norwegians are buying Teslas at an absurd rate. Watch for Europe to switch to EVs sooner; their main roadblock is the charging infrastructure. Unlike here in America, where suburbanites all have garages that can be easily retrofitted with a charging port, Europeans don't have that luxury usually. They're a lot like the eco-conscious pro-EV city dwellers here in America who park on the street and have no garage.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#134

Post by mcguire »

andy_ppp wrote: post #90

I would agree with the market that Tesla has the potential to be far far larger than Ford should things go well. If they manage to get to 500000 cars and full automation within the next year, they'll be worth even more than their current market cap. Remember that Tesla have by far the best dataset for building self driving cars and this is going to give them a huge time to market and/or safety advantage over their co…

Absolutely! By 2027, all the vehicles on the road will be Teslas.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#135

Post by nkristoffersen »

John23832 wrote: post #113
sergiosgc wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To a much lesser degree. An electric engine is a lot simpler, mechanically, than an ICE. To the point that, I think, major malfunctions will result in replacement of the engine instead of fixing engine components. Given good refurbishment logistics, this is much more efficient.

I'm sorry, but that's just not true. The basic premise of an electric "engine" is simpler than that of an ICE, but when you actually make the car, it's nowhere near as simple on paper. Just look at the issue people have had with getting Tesla's repaired... the "mechanics" don't even know that you have to keep the battery charged. Also, don't ignore the fact that we have 100+ years of experience with ICE.

Judging by the electric motor portion of the telsa manufacturing I would say it is much more simple than ICE https://youtu.be/AVCCroN7vS0

Also, I would argue electric motors have been around far longer than ICE because it is simpler. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#136

Post by dkrich »

cmarschner wrote: post #22
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Dealerships aren't company owned. Ford sells cars to independent dealers who mark them up and sell them to the consumer.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#137

Post by crabasa »

martinko wrote: post #130
crabasa wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

Capex is not included in net income, so your analysis is completely wrong.

Of course Capex isn't included, but its direct consequence (depreciation) is. Tesla incurred almost $1B of depreciation in 2016:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#138

Post by nojvek »

andy_ppp wrote: post #90

I would agree with the market that Tesla has the potential to be far far larger than Ford should things go well. If they manage to get to 500000 cars and full automation within the next year, they'll be worth even more than their current market cap. Remember that Tesla have by far the best dataset for building self driving cars and this is going to give them a huge time to market and/or safety advantage over their co…

This! Tesla's proposition is very risky but from their track record of what they've done with reusable rockets, I guess you can say execution is their strong point. Yes Elon will have crazy deadlines, but if you put a good buffer then eventually he'll deliver it.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#139

Post by sixQuarks »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Bottomline: Ford is run by professional managers. Tesla is run by a visionary.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#140

Post by sxates »

I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas:

- Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage)

- Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, with capacity coming online that will double global output of lithium batteries)

- Solar panels and solar roofs (both residential and commercial, a market with a hockey stick growth curve coming)

- Self-driving AI (head to head with Google on one of the most fundamental changes to transportation our society has seen in a century, and they have the hardware driving around us all the time already, rapidly learning and improving)

Ford, GM, et al are irrelevant and poor comparisons. This is SpaceX for Terran energy and transportation.

Post reply on HN