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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#51

Post by cmahler7 »

John23832 wrote: post #16
stellar678 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

look up kodak and the digital camera. They had the tech in the 70s but didn't want it to cannibalize their film sales. They're bankrupt now.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#52

Post by John23832 »

blhack wrote: post #42
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

The piece of the puzzle that Ford doesn't currently have is charging stations. Tesla building its supercharger network was a brilliant move because it means that Teslas are comparable to most petrol-fuel vehicles (as far as where you can go), and everybody else isn't. If I buy a Ford, can I drive it to see my family in Northern Minnesota[1]? Because I know that I can take a tesla. That's a really big deal. I know the…

And Tesla doesn't have a fully viable charging network either? What's the point? Outside SV and major cities, it's a pain in the ass to own a tesla.

As for the charging stations, that's an investment that ford would have to make to stay viable, which they would do

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#53

Post by [deleted] »

blhack wrote: post #42
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

The piece of the puzzle that Ford doesn't currently have is charging stations. Tesla building its supercharger network was a brilliant move because it means that Teslas are comparable to most petrol-fuel vehicles (as far as where you can go), and everybody else isn't. If I buy a Ford, can I drive it to see my family in Northern Minnesota[1]? Because I know that I can take a tesla. That's a really big deal. I know the…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#54

Post by tptacek »

adamnemecek wrote: post #4
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

That's true, but underscores how treacherous comparisons between big companies based on market caps are. By every metric other than investor confidence in a single narrative (except maybe R&D spending?), Ford dwarfs Tesla and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

I don't think anyone has any trouble telling a story in which Tesla is ultimately a more valuable company than Ford. And I agree that's a big deal. But this comment thread suggests the market cap comparison is some kind of milestone. It's hard to articulate what that milestone would be.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#55

Post by dsugarman »

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of success * potential future value over a variety of possible outcomes.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#56

Post by jernfrost »

spectistcles wrote: post #14
jernfrost wrote: post #6

Why doesn't this have a huge benefit to Tesla. They always seem to be short on cash, but if you are worth that much shouldn't cash be super simple to raise for Tesla? Why push for high stock prices if it gives little benefits. Seems like a nutty evaluation even if Tesla knocks over the established players in the future. I do in fact think that there will be an iPhone moment where established players who have not take…

That's an interesting comparison — we could very well end up in a market where existing manufacturers catch up and vastly outsell Tesla in the long-run (Android), and Tesla ends up as a very successful luxury model (iOS).

Android was not an established player either though. So we had a situation where new entrants like Apple and Google both destroyed the established players like Nokia, Black Berry, Windows Phone, Siemens, Sony-Ericcson etc.

There might very well be another electric car maker upending the market, but really I think Tesla has quite a number of years head start now. Building and planning something like the Giga factory took many years. A competitor will not be able to reproduce that in a couple of years.

Tesla also sits with years of experience designing batteries now. They have a competency advantage over the established players who mainly know how to make a fossils fuel engine. Each year passing that becomes useless and dead knowledge. They also lack the software development skills of Tesla. They have mostly bought that from vendors. Tesla thus sits with expertise in the key areas for the future of automobile while the competition is very weak in these areas.

I predict a bloodbath. 10 years from now I think Tesla will be quite big and the established players struggling hard to hang on.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#57

Post by crabasa »

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion.

Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank."

Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#58

Post by resiros »

Can someone more knowledgeable explain how is that even possible? Doesn't this mean that the market predicts that Tesla's future earning after discount and after taking risks into account is higher than Ford's? Under which data? Or am I missing something?
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