Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do let us know if the GBP ever tumbles against the EUR or USD.
The EUR hasn't exactly been rock solid against USD in recent years.
Hmm...it started at $1.1686. And now it is at $1.09, so 6% off.
UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
121–130 of 649 posts
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except I didn't say that the Falklands happened because of the EU, did I? It happened because Argentina invaded British sovereign territory, and the British defended it. Interestingly, not a single other EU country aided the UK.
Would this be the same EU that wasn't founded for another 13 years? While we're putting forward spurious facts not a single non-EU country aided the UK.
> Would this be the same EU that wasn't founded for another 13 years?
Yes; the same one, too, that grew out of the EEC founded 35 years prior.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#123I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It's difficult to see very much positive about this move; certainly there will be some benefits, but I expect greatly outweighed by the negatives (which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers - the EU has consisten…
> which will include higher prices Interesting. I was in a UK supermarket the other day and the asparagus on offer was from Spain and Mexico. The Mexican variety was cheaper, and just as good. Currently, Mexico pays a 14.4% common external tariff on this product, and it's still cheaper than what the EU (with it's massive array of agricultural subsidy) can produce. I imagine this is just the tip of the iceberg.
*heart of the iceberg (lettuce) - tip of the asparagus.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#124Great news. Of the four happiest countries in the world, three are European countries outside the EU. Autonomy is crucial to happiness.
What does that prove? Of the twenty least happy countries in the world, all are outside the EU.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#125I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…
>> I am an European living and working in the UK
You are lucky then as you always have the choice to leave the UK and enjoy the protections of the EU.
A lot of the coverage is focussed on trade/immigration etc. but there are lots of wonderful human rights protections and consumer protections that are provided by the EU which the British government will be excited to get rid of. It's that that worries me.
Take the surveillance overreach for example. Thanks to it violating EU law there now has to be a rethink. Or the Human Rights Act that the tory's have wanted rid of since Cameron was in office - because they don't like some of the rights if guarantees.
There are things more serious than the economy.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#126I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…
I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost.
Britain is trapped with a forked strategy: it can go the Singapore route or the supplicant route. The two are incompatible and neither of them is realistically feasible. The Singapore route is what hard Brexiteers want but there's no mandate for it, and nor is there plurality of votes in it. The supplicant route is what Brexiteers will attack, and there probably isn't a majority of votes in the Tory party for it.
The UK's political landscape are in the wrong shape for the negotiation to come. Parties would need to be configured into those that are split according to negotiating strategy. Since they aren't, the fork will weaken Britain's negotiation throughout; every attempt to go down one road will face extreme resistance from those who prefer the other path.
Britain is screwed, AFAICT. Myself, I'm aiming at November or so to get out.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#127I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…
What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet?
What you're saying is as disingenuous as me saying that since all the horrible things people are afraid Trump didn't happy after the election before he came to power there was nothing to worry about.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#128I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…
I couldn't agree more. We've seen months of hysterics in the press and all over social media. It's unwarranted but it seems stuck in some sort of feedback loop.
I hope we'll get your ongoing rights in the UK sorted quickly. I'm fairly certain we will. Some stuff may be worse, some better.
The hysteria is doing nobody any favours - I've friends in London who seem convinced we're on our way to ethnic cleansing and probably war. They're scared, over very little.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
We had plenty of conflict while part of the EU: the Falklands, Iraq, the IRA, Bosnia for example. It wasn't nationalism which caused conflicts in Europe, it was a lack of democracy.
Well, you didn't see a war between Germany and England though... Bosnia, Iraq etc were not part of the EU. The point was to create a closely integrated Europe so that war would become unthinkable just like a war between England and Scotland is unthinkable now. Of course it was nationalism which caused conflicts in Europe. Did democracy prevent Russia to invade Ukraine? UK simply decided the European project is not wo…
I'd argue we didn't see a war between Germany and England, or Britain as we are these days, as we were occupying them in the aftermath until 1949 and maintained a British Army of the Rhine there until 1994. The Allies also established a new Constitution and political consensus that is vehemently anti-war - witness German reluctance to be involved in fighting in recent NATO and other coalition conflicts.
There's also the small matter that the Russians were effectively still occupying half of Germany until the late 1980s. The origins of the EU came that trade prevents wars. The Democratic Peace Thesis likes to discount all sorts of countries as "not a democracy", a good example of No True Scotsman. Given we're seeing Turkey rapidly heading towards dictatorship, Hungary's far right leadership despite being an EU member, and all the problems the US is going through it is a salient reminder that just because you are a democracy doesn't mean you stay one. One of the pretty unique things about the UK in the EU is its political history - France is on its 5th Republic, Germany has only been reunified within living memory, Italy's system is from 1946 etc. You can see how relatively new, potentially fragile systems of Government might want to prevent resurgences of problems, especially under the shadow of the Cold War.
Edit to add: Oh - there's also this thing called NATO as well. When two countries are in a military alliance they also tend to avoid going to war with each other. NATO is of course also the body that intervened far more decisively than the EU in the Bosnian and Kosovan Wars - those pesky examples of genocide in Europe that people overlook about how fantastic and peaceful we are as a continent.
Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU
#130I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It's difficult to see very much positive about this move; certainly there will be some benefits, but I expect greatly outweighed by the negatives (which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers - the EU has consisten…
> which will include higher prices Interesting. I was in a UK supermarket the other day and the asparagus on offer was from Spain and Mexico. The Mexican variety was cheaper, and just as good. Currently, Mexico pays a 14.4% common external tariff on this product, and it's still cheaper than what the EU (with it's massive array of agricultural subsidy) can produce. I imagine this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Given that Spain is still recovering from flooding, cold weather and a bunch of other issues [1] that have made growing vegetables impossible in many areas, that's not really a surprise.