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A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

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Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#91
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a long time I was in the "we don't have enough information to make a conclusion" camp, and dismissed anyone "jumping" to conclusions as alarmist. This xkcd changed my mind: https://xkcd.com/1732/

Much as I like Randall Munroe and xkcd, I don't see any sources cited in that comic. I don't know that we know, precisely, how fucked we are yet, but I do think it's clear that humans are having an effect, and we know very convincing reasons for why we're having an effect, so we should work to reduce that effect regardless of whether we're fucked in 100 years if we continue this way, or if it will take 1000.

He cites his sources on the right near the top.

> SHAKUN ET.AL. (2012), MARCOTT ET.AL.(2013), ANNAN AND HARGRAVES (2013), HADCRUT4, IPCC

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#92

I have a question for the anthropogenic climate change doubters and deniers out there. You say either that it is certain that human activity is not having a significant influence on the climate, or it is not certain whether or not it is. My question is, it there any sort of scientific evidence that might be discovered in the future that would lead you to change your mind, and if so what would it be? Or is you view si…

I am not a "denier", but I do struggle with the evidence I have read as most of it has too much subjectivity or is based on meta studies where all underlying papers are highly subjective. What is missing from the debate is 2-3 papers that are agreed on to be the clearest evidence that temperatures are changing due to human inputs. Calling people 'deniers' is an ad hominen attack that doesn't prove anything, and most…

How is calling someone who denies something a 'denier' an attack? I am a denier of prayer healing, chemtrails and the illuminati, to name a few. You can call me that all day, because it's true.

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#93
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with "climate science" is that so many things about it set off my internal BS detector. But on specifics, it would be good to get a clear answer to the question - how come CO2 concentration was much higher in several past periods and it didn't turn the Earth into a desert?

>But on specifics, it would be good to get a clear answer to the question - how come CO2 concentration was much higher in several past periods and it didn't turn the Earth into a desert? So are you saying that if you got a persuasive answer to that question, you would then be persuaded that human activity is causing global warming, at least to a considerable degree?

If there is not a good answer to that question, then I would reject the hypothesis outright. If there is a good answer, then I would accept it as a working hypothesis, unless any other screaming contradictions come up.

I would also find it persuasive to see people with skin-in-the-game make informed decisions. For instance, selling off desirable waterfront properties because they believe rising sea levels will make them worthless within a century.

But let's say 10 or 20 or 30 years from now, we have not observed any additional warming or maybe we've even had cooling. I would not be surprised. Whereas I imagine there would be a lot of people walking around thinking "How could 97% of scientists have been so wrong? How could so much well funded research produce the wrong conclusion?" They would struggle to integrate it into their worldview. (although I guess they would probably just say it's a temporary pause or something)

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#94
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the short answer is "science," specifically "observation." the long answer is that my skepticism comes from climate being a classic complexity issue where trying to isolate a single factor (carbon) as being the main forcing for climate change requires a lot of real evidence. i'd turn the question back around on you by asking "why do you believe in CAGW?" when i asked myself that question (because i was like most peop…

This is a thoughtfully written post, thank you for taking the time to put it together. As a software engineer, I'm not really qualified to have a complex, technical discussion on climate change. However, one point that you made, I can address... > but, if this were really how it happened and co2 is the overwhelmingly main forcing for temperature increase, then why wasn't the planet already destroyed back when we had…

thanks for your insight. i also am a software engineer, so maybe i'm not qualified to have a complex, technical discussion either. but, i do think that most issues can be summarized/presented in a way that makes the technical discussion available to anyone of reasonable intelligence. it just takes either a feynman-type or a collaborator with an einstein-type to be interested in doing it. (i, myself, learned quantum mechanics well enough to present on it because i had a professional interest in quantum computing).

as per the theory of co2 precipitating the Permian extinction, i am aware of some very recent research that makes the claim that the extinction entirely happened during an 80,000 year ice age on the border of the Permian and Triassic periods. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170306091927.h...)

if the data are correct, it seems pretty convincing to me that it wasn't the warming that caused that extinction.

btw, your point about the planet not being destroyed is well taken. i guess what i'm trying to understand is how the positive feedback loop of temp->co2->temp is broken if trace amounts of co2 is such a massive forcing. when the earth had 4000+ ppm of co2 in the atmosphere, there had to be some other, much stronger, forcing to bring the temperature back down.

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we are using the term "subjective" differently. In your original comment, I thought you were using the term to indicate biased thinking. Now you seem to be meaning people's direct experience of the temperature. Or am I misunderstanding you?

You are misunderstanding. Basically, you are commenting in circles. I am looking for, no, pleading with you to present... is a clear and compelling case that global warming is at least partially caused by humans. When you or anyone else presents that evidence, I and others will apply various techniques to determine how credible that evidence is. One of those techniques I will apply is to examine subjectivity vs objec…

What I am asking you to do is clarify what you mean by the terms "subjectivity" and "objectivity". I am asking that because it is common for people to differ as to whether a given claim is objective or subjective, and so I would like to know how you yourself decide.

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are misunderstanding. Basically, you are commenting in circles. I am looking for, no, pleading with you to present... is a clear and compelling case that global warming is at least partially caused by humans. When you or anyone else presents that evidence, I and others will apply various techniques to determine how credible that evidence is. One of those techniques I will apply is to examine subjectivity vs objec…

What I am asking you to do is clarify what you mean by the terms "subjectivity" and "objectivity". I am asking that because it is common for people to differ as to whether a given claim is objective or subjective, and so I would like to know how you yourself decide.

Yes, what is obviously subjective to me, may be objevtive to you. We wont know unless we look at the evidence and debate it. Why dont you start by presenting some. I have looked and looked, but I am failing to draw causality

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#97

I have a question for the anthropogenic climate change doubters and deniers out there. You say either that it is certain that human activity is not having a significant influence on the climate, or it is not certain whether or not it is. My question is, it there any sort of scientific evidence that might be discovered in the future that would lead you to change your mind, and if so what would it be? Or is you view si…

I see several things about the climate science that can be substantially improved.

* general discourse. Whenever someone raises some objection, the response is not a thoughtful argument, but many times a quick dismissal. you are certainly not one to do that, it is much appreciated

* unfalsifiability. scientific theories should be falsifiable. anything else is religion or politics. For example, what happens if there is a large volcano, or something like Saddam burning thousands of oil wells in Kuwait. I read somewhere that some climate models did check their predictions against the actual outcomes, and this is good. More evidence of this type would be great.

* model and data validation, audit and oversight. I am a quant working with both data and models in finance. I know about model uncertainty, and how messy is real world data. The regulators demand a lot of model testing, documentation, validation, ongoing monitoring, and audit. Our bible is the supervisory letter SR 11-7. Banks are investing billions in this and regulators hired hundreds of people to beef up their oversight. I don't see a similar scrutiny over the climate models that arguably are more important for the humanity

* all results in climate science can be spun to align to the climate change thesis. If there is a large uncertainty about the results, one picks the worse outcome and the result is presented as "new research show that the [melting of Antarctica, let's say] may be happening much faster than previously thought". Well, the same research show that the X thing may be also happening much slower, but who cares about that? If something completely new comes up (e.g. number of trees in the Amazon basin being off by a factor of 10), then more funding is needed.

* the 97% or so consensus of the climate scientists. My perception is that most of them know their own piece, and they are scrupulous, but can't conclude from their area of research one way or another about the whole global warming. They don't contradict it either, so if asked they say that global warming is most likely real. But that's not really a strong consensus, it's a polite agreement to not disagree. Here's a recent example on Hacker News: and antarctic ice researcher did an AMA on HN when his research regarding some Larsen C breakage made waves in the media [1]. The media spin was obviously that the world is getting warmer, and this is new evidence to support that. When someone on HN asked what we can do to stop further ice breaks, his answer was this: "Nothing! This is a completely natural process - ice builds up over time in the shelf and it has to be lost somehow. The calving of the iceberg is, in itself, not a result of human activity. If you mean more broadly how can we help prevent the loss of ice from Antarctica, then I'm not a climate policy expert". This gentleman is clearly a climate scientist, but he does not consider himself a "climate policy expert"

* Freeman Dyson [2] judges the climate models as having too much uncertainty: "The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world we live in ..."

By the way, I'm not a shill of the oil/coal/car industry. I do have a STEM PhD from MIT, and I can continue with more scientific arguments, but this message is getting already too long. I'm using a throwaway account.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13365211 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeman_Dyson#Climate_change

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#98

I have a question for the anthropogenic climate change doubters and deniers out there. You say either that it is certain that human activity is not having a significant influence on the climate, or it is not certain whether or not it is. My question is, it there any sort of scientific evidence that might be discovered in the future that would lead you to change your mind, and if so what would it be? Or is you view si…

For a long time I was in the "we don't have enough information to make a conclusion" camp, and dismissed anyone "jumping" to conclusions as alarmist. This xkcd changed my mind: https://xkcd.com/1732/

I would've liked that comic illustration much more if he had gone back 400,000 years instead of only 20,000.

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we are using the term "subjective" differently. In your original comment, I thought you were using the term to indicate biased thinking. Now you seem to be meaning people's direct experience of the temperature. Or am I misunderstanding you?

You are misunderstanding. Basically, you are commenting in circles. I am looking for, no, pleading with you to present... is a clear and compelling case that global warming is at least partially caused by humans. When you or anyone else presents that evidence, I and others will apply various techniques to determine how credible that evidence is. One of those techniques I will apply is to examine subjectivity vs objec…

> I am looking for, no, pleading with you to present... is a clear and compelling case that global warming is at least partially caused by humans

If you think that in 2017 there is no clear and compelling case that global warming is at least partially caused by humans I think you won't accept any fact about it

Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor

#100
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But on specifics, it would be good to get a clear answer to the question - how come CO2 concentration was much higher in several past periods and it didn't turn the Earth into a desert? So are you saying that if you got a persuasive answer to that question, you would then be persuaded that human activity is causing global warming, at least to a considerable degree?

If there is not a good answer to that question, then I would reject the hypothesis outright. If there is a good answer, then I would accept it as a working hypothesis, unless any other screaming contradictions come up. I would also find it persuasive to see people with skin-in-the-game make informed decisions. For instance, selling off desirable waterfront properties because they believe rising sea levels will make t…

> If there is not a good answer to that question, then I would reject the hypothesis outright. If there is a good answer, then I would accept it as a working hypothesis, unless any other screaming contradictions come up.

So, you won't accept it in any case

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