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Tesla to raise $1B

ir.tesla.com

231–240 of 334 posts

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supposedly that's the case, but since they switched away from Mobile Eye they are still trying to reach feature parity with AP1 at this point. It was supposed to take 2 months, but viola, 6 months later they are still struggling and there are many YouTube videos out there showing how terrible and unsafe it is. It still lack many features of AP1 such as automatic lane changing and blind spot detection at this point. L…

I looked up AP2 videos on YouTube. For anyone who wants to see an example, here's one: https://youtu.be/UZ1XLqc5IUg

Wow, I'm surprised this isn't bigger news yet. Even further indication that Level 4 driving needs LIDAR

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#232

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

Although I applaud your skepticism, I think it's misplaced. My first job out of University was working for Daimler-Benz when they owned Chrysler. I was a front line eng supervisor at the plant level focusing on In System Damage, Federal Torque and a host of other quality issues that were plaguing the company at the time. I dealt directly with it so I can tell you, Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix. They will…

> Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix

This is kind of irrelevant, but somewhat amusing, so I figure I'll tell it. My neighbour (in the middle of nowhere in rural Japan) was some kind of automotive manufacturing expert before he retired. I don't even know his name (he tells me to call him "Tom"), but we go out drinking occasionally. He must have been a big wig because he spent a considerable amount of time in the US and even has a personally signed thank you card from George Bush Sr.

Anyway, we were at the bar and I was telling him about the use of kanban in software development. My wife interrupted and asked what kanban was (because in Japanese "kanban" just means "signboard"). I tried to explain the concept, but she remained confused. He said, "I can explain it very easily". He picked up an empty plate and handed it to my wife. "We're out of fish", he said, motioning to the bar. :-)

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Packaging the cells is the hard/expensive part. Nevermind the battery management software. And the point of the Gigafactory is to compress the supply chains between raw materials and finished product. It's an all-in investment whose singular goal is to make battery packs cheaper. The only way other companies are going to match that efficiency is if 1) they make a similar investment or 2) Tesla/Panasonic screw up.

GM's partnership with LG Chem seems to match the market demand today more closely than Tesla'a expectations for tomorrow. People are buying CUVs due to low gas prices. The electric buzz is already wearing off.

In my opinion that's like saying the "DVD buzz is wearing off" in comparison to VHS. :D But yes, if you don't believe electric cars are going to take over everything, the Gigafactory looks super risky, and regardless it's definitely an enormous investment to have on the books while it's not paying for itself.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#234
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I test-drove an AP2 car. After a disastrous ride in which it tried to hit two parked cars and a trashcan and wanted to drive off the road entirely, the sales person said, with a straight face, that it was great for stop and go traffic on 101. I'm a bit amazed they can currently sell cars.

That sounds nuts; it seems like a huge liability that they are putting AP2 in the hands of consumers when it can be more dangerous than just the average driver...

What liability? You're supposed to constantly be aware and in control of your vehicle when using AP2.

(At which point, you may ask: What is the point of AP2..?)

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#235

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

You're concerned with a 23% YTD return on the stock and a 600% return over 5 years? The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. Looks like it isn't.

One word - Enron.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#236

Tesla is basically taking on a loan in form of a convertible notes. probably much smarter to distribute their lender among multiple entities than one giant bank that would have leverage on them. Also, it looks like Tesla would use a portion of the money to inflate their share prices via a small buyback. The after market trading so far make this strategy look successful. So at the end of a day: Tesla is raising capita…

> probably much smarter to distribute their lender among multiple entities than one giant bank that would have leverage on them

The banks you see on the front page of the prospectus are not lenders in this transaction, they are underwriters. They are executing transaction and distributing the converts to the institutional investors (long-only and hedge funds). At any rate, underwriters and investors will have exactly zero leverage over Tesla following transaction (debt holders have no voting power).

> would use a portion of the money to inflate their share prices via a small buyback

Not at all. They are concurrently offering common shares, so buyback would make zero sense (i.e. buying and selling shares at the same time). They plan to use proceeds for general corporate purposes (Model 3!) and to buy a call spread they will overlay on top of the convert to synthetically increase the effective conversion premium above the premium that convert will price at. This is done to reduce potential dilution down the road.

> Tesla is raising capital without diluting their shareholders...

Correct - this convert will likely fly off the shelves and the conversion premium will be high (perhaps up 30-40% from tomorrow's close). On top of that, they will enter into the call spread that will bring the conversion premium to up 50% or 75% (depending on the structure they pick) from tomorrow's close.

> Also the maturity date of 5 years is rather interesting

This is standard duration for convertible debt. Generally they are structured with 5 year or 7 year duration, but 5 years sell better (pricing is also tighter).

Overall, smart deal for Tesla and net positive for shareholders.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#237

Tesla is basically taking on a loan in form of a convertible notes. probably much smarter to distribute their lender among multiple entities than one giant bank that would have leverage on them. Also, it looks like Tesla would use a portion of the money to inflate their share prices via a small buyback. The after market trading so far make this strategy look successful. So at the end of a day: Tesla is raising capita…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#238
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've contradicted yourself in the two quotes below. "Tesla is basically taking on a loan in form of a convertible notes." "So at the end of a day: Tesla is raising capital without diluting their shareholders and reducing their share values" Convertible debt is in fact dilutive. It's even specifically accounted for when calculating Diluted Earnings per Share : http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dilutedeps.asp

Sort of, but not really...the FASB has said you can treat the underlying shares as non-dilutive if the stock price isn't above the conversion price (this is called "net share settlement"). So basically, while outstanding, the debt acts like debt for accounting purposes until the stock price is above the conversion price. When it goes above the conversion price, the you treat those incremental shares as dilutive. Addi…

looks like you've done time on a coverts desk ;)

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#239
I'm surprised that this bond issue specifically calls out launching the Model 3 (as opposed to being used for e.g. further SolarCity installs).

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#240

How much of Tesla's prospects are due not to free market competition, but Elon Musk lending his credibility to Trump? What happens to his competition, who do compete in the market and take a principled stand against Trump? Is Musk still supporting Trump? I just spent some time doing a little research (below) and as far as I can tell, the answer to the questions seem unsettling, though I couldn't find many great, curr…

Would you please not do this here? HN threads are supposed to be good conversation, not political broadsheets, let alone boilerplate.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13880102 and marked it off-topic.

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