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Tesla to raise $1B

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#191

Post by csours »

bischofs wrote: post #179
bflesch wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their agility in comparison to GM is communicated very well. At least they tackle innovative moonshot projects, it motivates people to give their best. In other companies the ones innovating are the minority and people dwell on past successes. I'd rather work at an innovative company than for GM.

The bolt and the volt are well engineered products at a very reasonable price point. I think GM is innovative with these platforms

To bflesch's point, GM is making a different gamble: that the vast majority of consumers will continue to prefer fossil fuel engines for the next few engineering cycles (10-15 years).

GM has a side bet on electric cars in the form of a joint venture to build electric cars with LG, and another side bet in the form of a joint venture to build hydrogen fuel cells with Honda.

Tesla is making a VERY big bet that a vertically integrated, highly automated, battery electric carmaker will be able to take an increasing amount of market share.

To be clear, I'm extremely impressed with what Tesla has accomplished so far - if Musk accomplishes what he plans, manufacturing will never be the same.

Like I said above, it will be educational to see what happens.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#192

Post by nyxtom »

jonknee wrote: post #187
nyxtom wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to note that the rollout of the Model 3, along with other Tesla vehicles, is done in spite of many laws that are explicitly aimed at preventing the sale of Tesla vehicles. Many states completely hamstring the ability to sell EV cars directly and some states are downright hostile towards Tesla. Additionally, one has to consider the current administration's position on fuel economy standards and any comp…

> Many states completely hamstring the ability to sell EV cars directly and some states are downright hostile towards Tesla. This has nothing to do with EVs, it has to do with Tesla wanting to sell cars differently than anyone else sells cars. If Tesla wanted to do a dealer model they could certainly give it a go and be treated no differently than any other auto maker.

Their argument is that dealerships have no actual incentive to sell EV vehicles over other ICE vehicles given that franchises make most of their profit from servicing; as such this exposes quite a bit of unnecessary risk for Tesla or any EV maker for that matter. This is the primary argument in lobbying efforts that there should be an exception for EV vehicles in this case of similar laws.

"Tesla General Counsel Todd Maron argued that the automaker wouldn’t thrive under a franchise dealership model because independent dealers make most of their profit from servicing cars while electric cars have little long-term maintenance and fewer moving parts."

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#193

Post by tokipin »

bischofs wrote: post #122
radiorental wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious, where is everyone going to get their batteries?

Tesla doesnt make batteries they just package the cells, anyone can do this if the market demands it. Automotive companies are quite good at supply chains.

Packaging the cells is the hard/expensive part. Nevermind the battery management software. And the point of the Gigafactory is to compress the supply chains between raw materials and finished product. It's an all-in investment whose singular goal is to make battery packs cheaper. The only way other companies are going to match that efficiency is if 1) they make a similar investment or 2) Tesla/Panasonic screw up.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#194

Post by nyxtom »

kilroy123 wrote: post #83
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

I absolutely love Musk and the idea of Telsa. Hell, I would love to get me a Model S, if I could. But I completely agree with you. I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. The timeline will slip and it won't come out until 2018. The whole solar city deal was premature. I think Musk knows this isn't going to work, at least for a while. I think he knows Telsa is going to have a more…

Isn't the entire premise of building affordability/profit into the model 3, among other vehicles, is driving down the cost of li-ion batteries? All of these ventures rely on an economy of scale of difference. Correct me if I'm wrong in this.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#195

Post by jonknee »

salimmadjd wrote: post #24
jeffwass wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've contradicted yourself in the two quotes below. "Tesla is basically taking on a loan in form of a convertible notes." "So at the end of a day: Tesla is raising capital without diluting their shareholders and reducing their share values" Convertible debt is in fact dilutive. It's even specifically accounted for when calculating Diluted Earnings per Share : http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dilutedeps.asp

But you're not flooding the market with $750M new common stock of TSLA in the market. If TSLA price crashes it could impact consumer confidence in buying the T3 which Tesla is banking on. If TSLA drops and T3 are delayed, many consumers might panic and not oder their car creating a vicious circle.

... They are also issuing new shares:

> Concurrently with this offering of notes, we are offering 968,993 shares of our common stock (or up to 1,114,341 shares of our common stock if the underwriters of that offering exercise their option to purchase additional shares in full), in an underwritten offering pursuant to a separate prospectus supplement. The closing of this offering of notes is not contingent upon the closing of the concurrent offering of common stock, and the closing of the concurrent offering of common stock is not contingent upon the closing of this offering.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#196

Post by jonknee »

onmobiletemp wrote: post #147
bischofs wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla doesnt make batteries they just package the cells, anyone can do this if the market demands it. Automotive companies are quite good at supply chains.

You dont know what youre talking about. They do make batteries. 2170s are rolling off the gig assembly line as we speak. They are already in their products. Please think before you speak.

Well technically Panasonic makes the batteries in a facility that it co-owns/manages with Tesla.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#197

Post by danm07 »

Cookingboy wrote: post #14
corbett3000 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're concerned with a 23% YTD return on the stock and a 600% return over 5 years? The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. Looks like it isn't.

Well the market can be terribly wrong on many companies in the long run, both undervaluing great companies and overvaluing terrible companies. Tesla's vision is for the next 20 years, not the last 5. Historical performance is also not an indicator of future performance. Everyday I'm holding onto the shares is the same as if I made the decision to buy that many shares on that day. If anything the fantastic return woul…

> Everyday I'm holding onto the shares is the same as if I made the decision to buy that many shares on that day

While I'm not a banker, I find with this method looking at investments highly disagreeable. The price of the stock at the time of purchase is the projected future profits discounted to present day. In other words, it is the fundamental value of the firm, which is invariant of its day-to-day fluctuations.

If you have to be watching for the daily upticks, it's a sign the company is either incompetent or is operating in a highly unfavorable environment.

I don't see how any good can be gained from envisaging a purchase price other than your lock-in price.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#198

Post by sien »

dangrossman wrote: post #106
grandalf wrote: post #19

This is the sort of thing that ought to terrify the makers of legacy automotive technology, both for how Tesla might scale production, but also how Tesla might become a lot more aggressive with its intellectual property strategy.

Their ambitions for scaling production are meager: to start making Model 3's at a rate of 5000/week by 2018, which wouldn't even match the rate at which cars rolled out of that very same factory when GM/Toyota owned it. If they kept up that rate for a whole year, that'd represent around 0.7% of US car sales. Terrifying, or just one of many small car brands on the market? By 2019 they want to double that rate to 10K/w…

The Chevrolet Bolt is available now in the US and has similar range to the Tesla and has a dealer network to support it:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt

It doesn't have self-driving technology. But that will come to Chevrolet or some other manufacturer.

Apple and Google were smart to stay out of the car making business. The established players are experienced and the margins are low and it's tough to compete. Partnering to make software and systems for the car industry is a better place to be.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#199

Post by hackuser »

mikeash wrote: post #182
hackuser wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla's prospects today aren't noticeably different from how they were on November 8th, 2016 I think the evidence strongly says otherwise: Tesla closing stock price, a quantitative measure of the market's view of their prospects and actual financing for those prospects: I'll pull out a few from around Election Day, as a more representative sample. But for better data than the excerpts below, go here and look at the…

I don't recall Musk being a Trump supporter. He is working with Trump, but that is not the same thing. He has stated that he thinks it's better if the President has good people advising him, regardless of how one thinks of their policies. TSLA is really volatile. The market cap is absurdly larger than the company's actual assets, meaning investors are banking on massive future growth. Going from $195 to $256 isn't th…

I guess I'd like to see some evidence the other way. The comments above are just denials, as in negative allegations or opinions with no support. I think I made my case very strongly, with much more evidence than 99% of comments on HN.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#200

Post by [deleted] »

M_Grey wrote: post #91
frisco wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroi…

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