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Tesla to raise $1B

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Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#161

Post by taytus »

kumarski wrote: post #160

Uber as a ponzi scheme of ambition 1/ Basic premise was they keep highlighting their entry into larger and larger markets and so investors keep ponying up $ for the ambition. 2/ First, it was taxis 3/ Then, it was taxis + logistics 4/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership 5/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous 6/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous, trucking 7 / Then taxis, logist…

At some point we should stop calling them investors and start calling them what they really are: idiots.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#162

Post by nyxtom »

Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

It's important to note that the rollout of the Model 3, along with other Tesla vehicles, is done in spite of many laws that are explicitly aimed at preventing the sale of Tesla vehicles. Many states completely hamstring the ability to sell EV cars directly and some states are downright hostile towards Tesla. Additionally, one has to consider the current administration's position on fuel economy standards and any company such as Tesla getting the leg up with subsidies. Which, according to Elon, would be completely fine to get rid of so long as we are getting rid of all subsidies (including the massive ones for Oil companies). In general, this is and always has been an uphill battle and rolling these products out to market is met with great enthusiasm but at the same time hostility from many states who see them as a threat.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#163

Post by hackuser »

mikeash wrote: post #117
hackuser wrote: post #49

How much of Tesla's prospects are due not to free market competition, but Elon Musk lending his credibility to Trump? What happens to his competition, who do compete in the market and take a principled stand against Trump? Is Musk still supporting Trump? I just spent some time doing a little research (below) and as far as I can tell, the answer to the questions seem unsettling, though I couldn't find many great, curr…

Tesla's prospects today aren't noticeably different from how they were on November 8th, 2016, so trying to tie it in to Trump doesn't make the slightest bit of sense to me.

> Tesla's prospects today aren't noticeably different from how they were on November 8th, 2016

I think the evidence strongly says otherwise: Tesla closing stock price, a quantitative measure of the market's view of their prospects and actual financing for those prospects:

I'll pull out a few from around Election Day, as a more representative sample. But for better data than the excerpts below, go here and look at the 1 year and 5 year charts:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

* Tue, Nov 1, 2016: 190.97 (1 week before Election Day)

* Tue, Nov 8, 2016: 194.94 (Election Day)

* Wed, Nov 9, 2016: 190.96

* Tue, Nov 15, 2016: 183.77

...

* Generally, on Dec 2 it was 181, then it vectored mostly steadily upward to Feb 21 (277), then there was a dip and it stabilized at the current level.

* Peak: Feb 13, 2017: $280.60 (about equal to approx. all-time high, last seen July 2015)

* Today: 255.73

----

Remember that Musk criticized Trump before the election. Then Musk made a dramatic turn and became Trump's supporter, to a significant extent at least, and I think in December or January (but it would be good to know when).

* The stock price has shot up by 31% since Election Day, and ~50% from its ~ Dec 2 low to its Feb 13 peak. Not only does that directly help prospects, but the market clearly views Tesla's prospects as significantly better.

* Multiple investment banks tie the large increase to his relationship with Trump. And at least one investment bank advised people to buy stock specifically because of the Trump relationship. See links in the GP.

* Many other reports, including some I quoted, also tie his companies' prospects to his relationship to Trump, though in ways that are harder to quantify. See links in the GP.

* Many accuse him of supporting Trump specifically for this reason. Again, see links in the GP. Of course, nobody can read Musk's mind, so that is always difficult to substantiate.

* Search for "musk trump", and you'll find much more than the few links I posted.

EDIT: made stock data a little more informative, and more clear statement in the opening

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#165

Post by xarien »

taytus wrote: post #161
kumarski wrote: post #160

Uber as a ponzi scheme of ambition 1/ Basic premise was they keep highlighting their entry into larger and larger markets and so investors keep ponying up $ for the ambition. 2/ First, it was taxis 3/ Then, it was taxis + logistics 4/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership 5/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous 6/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous, trucking 7 / Then taxis, logist…

At some point we should stop calling them investors and start calling them what they really are: idiots.

So I've personally made 6 figures on TSLA. If I'm an idiot, what does that make someone who thought they were smarter than someone who would invest in TSLA?

Here's the thing about investment: whether you're playing the long or short game, the only way you make money is through stock volatility. And as far as volatility is concerned, TSLA has been fantastic to play over and over again.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#166

Post by matthewowen »

nyxtom wrote: post #162
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

It's important to note that the rollout of the Model 3, along with other Tesla vehicles, is done in spite of many laws that are explicitly aimed at preventing the sale of Tesla vehicles. Many states completely hamstring the ability to sell EV cars directly and some states are downright hostile towards Tesla. Additionally, one has to consider the current administration's position on fuel economy standards and any comp…

Is there any Tesla vehicle that doesn't have a waiting list?

I'm not disputing that some of the rules around auto sales are problematic, but it seems to me like the limiter on Tesla's ability to sell cars is its ability to produce them.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#167

Post by ksikka »

cel1ne wrote: post #26
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

Curious: What do you think is Tesla/Musk's "end game vision"?

There's no endgame - such a thing would cap Tesla's valuation.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#168

Post by ericb »

M_Grey wrote: post #91
frisco wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroi…

I think you need to listen to more of his interviews, look over his plans, examine his side businesses... They are all remarkably consistent with a long term vision he lays out years in advance of any business dealings. For example, The Boring Company is his exploration of what they can do on mars to avoid radiation and create habitats. His mars beliefs go back years.

I hope this doesn't apply to you, but I feel really sorry for people who can't believe in altruistic motivations. It seems people who don't believe anyone works for the greater good often disbelieve because they have only selfish motivations, so imagining someone motivated by altruism or higher order goals sounds fantastical, and they can only understand it as a "trick."

Further, I don't think it is at all clear that those obstacles are insurmountable. They are technical problems. Nasa thinks solutions are possible and worth discussing:

http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-chall...

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#169

Post by godzillabrennus »

kumarski wrote: post #160

Uber as a ponzi scheme of ambition 1/ Basic premise was they keep highlighting their entry into larger and larger markets and so investors keep ponying up $ for the ambition. 2/ First, it was taxis 3/ Then, it was taxis + logistics 4/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership 5/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous 6/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous, trucking 7 / Then taxis, logist…

Musk has stated that his ambition is in colonizing Mars. To achieve that he's building the companies to make it a profitable endeavor. When he succeeds he will have built a path for others to follow to also have a commercially viable option to explore space.

Travis on the other hand is apparently running a fraternity that spies on you. About the worst of the worst coming out of Uber.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#170

Post by taytus »

xarien wrote: post #165
taytus wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point we should stop calling them investors and start calling them what they really are: idiots.

So I've personally made 6 figures on TSLA. If I'm an idiot, what does that make someone who thought they were smarter than someone who would invest in TSLA? Here's the thing about investment: whether you're playing the long or short game, the only way you make money is through stock volatility. And as far as volatility is concerned, TSLA has been fantastic to play over and over again.

The comment I replied to talked about Uber, not TSLA. I can't understand your need to brag about how much money you made, but yeah, it would be cool if you could read first.
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