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The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

danielcompton.net

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Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#491

Post by dx034 »

beefman wrote: post #89
harryh wrote: post #29

Uber passengers only pay 41% of the cost of trips, with investor capital making up the difference FWIW this assertion (which isn't really core to the central thesis of the post, but still) is wrong. That number comes from https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/12/01/2180647/the-taxi-unic... but the author of that story misread the data. Uber only counts their cut as revenue not the full cost of the ride. Despite this repet…

What is the correct percentage?

Any percentage given is very misleading. In nearly all cases, Uber will make a profit when you take a ride. However, they built such an expensive company (huge R&D department, zillions of free coupons, ads everywhere) that they cannot pay for it without making a loss.

If they suddenly had 10x as many rides or would shed coupons and R&D, they'd probably be profitable. But they'd also lose their edge they hope to have over Lyft & Co.

NB: There are of course areas where they offer rides below the driver's cut, but that's probably rare after they exited China.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#492

Post by alexryan »

uptownfunk wrote: post #477
harryh wrote: post #29

Uber passengers only pay 41% of the cost of trips, with investor capital making up the difference FWIW this assertion (which isn't really core to the central thesis of the post, but still) is wrong. That number comes from https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/12/01/2180647/the-taxi-unic... but the author of that story misread the data. Uber only counts their cut as revenue not the full cost of the ride. Despite this repet…

You know what, I may get downvoted for this, but my take is you just can't stop these guys. They'll do whatever it takes to win. I probably spend around $2,000 USD on uber trips per month. And frankly, as much disturbing stuff I hear about these guys, Uber beats the heck out of renting a car in a snowy area (especially after having taken a red-eye to a client site). It also beats the crap out of taking a cab in most…

I too was very reluctant to let go of uber for the same reasons. It's difficult to let go of what is clearly an outstanding product. I also have mixed feelings about Kalanick. I love how bold and aggressive he has been in going to war with ossified privilege and wish that more entrepreneurs had his balls. But when I read Susan’s blog, I thought to myself “this cannot go unpunished.” The toxic culture has to be corrected, not just at uber but everywhere it exists. Creating a world in which our daughters will not have to experience what Susan experienced is far more important than the convenience of a great app. Unfortunately, people do not genuinely change their deeply ingrained habits unless and until they reach a pain threshold which compels them to change their core values. Uber needs to feel that pain right now for the greater good of everyone including uber. So I deleted uber and switched to using Lyft and, so far, the experience has been surprisingly good. It seems that the engineers at Lyft have done a really great job as well. I have found that, as a general rule, making the decision to do what is right even when it is uncomfortable is always the decision that leads to greater happiness.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#493

Post by nstj »

uptownfunk wrote: post #477
harryh wrote: post #29

Uber passengers only pay 41% of the cost of trips, with investor capital making up the difference FWIW this assertion (which isn't really core to the central thesis of the post, but still) is wrong. That number comes from https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/12/01/2180647/the-taxi-unic... but the author of that story misread the data. Uber only counts their cut as revenue not the full cost of the ride. Despite this repet…

You know what, I may get downvoted for this, but my take is you just can't stop these guys. They'll do whatever it takes to win. I probably spend around $2,000 USD on uber trips per month. And frankly, as much disturbing stuff I hear about these guys, Uber beats the heck out of renting a car in a snowy area (especially after having taken a red-eye to a client site). It also beats the crap out of taking a cab in most…

I hear ya, but your assumptions are predicate on the quality and availability of Uber service remaining static if they increase their price, and I'm not sure if they can do that. (The current seemingly endless spigot of cost free tech investment capital is leading to some interesting unintended consequences).

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#494

Post by Animats »

VikingCoder wrote: post #422
Animats wrote: post #133

Uber, in their usual rule-breaking way, may come out OK on this. Suppose everything in the complaint against Uber is proven true. Google/Alphabet/Waymo gets an injunction against Uber using their rotating LIDAR, a clunky technology that's on the way out. (The future of high-volume 3D LIDAR is either flash with a staring sensor or MEMS with chip-sized moving mirrors.) G/A/W gets paid a few billion dollars, but far les…

> a clunky technology that's on the way out. How much do you want to bet?

Quantergy, Velodyne, and Leddar have all announced low-cost solid-state LIDAR units for self-driving cars, to be available in 2017. Somebody is going to deliver.

Continental is targeting shipments in 2020. They're a large auto parts maker, and they bought the technology from Advanced Scientific Concepts, which has sold good but expensive flash LIDAR units for years. They're demoing now, and will probably end up selling millions of the things to auto companies.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#495

Post by Animats »

memmcgee wrote: post #374
Animats wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going public just got tougher for Uber. With a big lawsuit with merit hanging over them, their IPO value drops considerably. Underwriters don't like open-ended liabilities like that.

I also think the sexual harassment claims pose a massive liability. If the harassment is as wide spread as Fowler says it is, Uber could be looking at a massive class action lawsuit.

That's chump change on Uber's scale.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#496

Post by hammeiam »

nathanaldensr wrote: post #326
aianus wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Settlements are not admissions of guilt.

Nor are they admissions of innocence. However, if they were to lean one way, I'd say guilt is the direction they lean.

I don't think anyone has ever admitted to being innocent.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#497

Post by sangnoir »

obstinate wrote: post #430
londons_explore wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not filing suits/charges against the individuals involved suggests "sending a message" isn't the goal. In fact, the people involved look to have done rather well financially out of it so far.

Although when you have as much money as Levandowski already had even before this acquisition, it's hard to imagine that money is really the main motivating factor any more. He won't make it out with his reputation or his power intact.

> Although when you have as much money as Levandowski already had even before this acquisition, it's hard to imagine that money is really the main motivating factor any more.

It really isn't hard to imagine - no one is too rich to be greedy, even billionaires want more money.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#498

Post by HenryBemis »

freyr wrote: post #435
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in that list, aside from 2 (advertising and expansion), 7 (fleet operations), and 8 (self-driving R&D, which is honestly well outside of their current business) is dirt cheap in comparison to their operating costs - paying drivers, vehicle purchasing, insurance, and maintenance, and buying fuel. Service and hardware businesses have completely different cost structures as compared to tech companies. Think a…

> self-driving R&D, which is honestly well outside of their current business According to the CEO, self-driving cars are "existential" to Uber's success. They may need something that disruptive to meet the company's sky high valuation.

as far as it goes for "world domination" I've read before that Uber's plan is to make everyone's (self-driving car) a money making machine for Uber and the car owner.

You go to work at 9am and while at work 9.01am to 4.59pm your car drives around making you both money. The same applies for when you return home 6.01pm to 8am the next day.

No drivers, only Auto-bots ;) and paying customers!

(makes me wonder how much Insurance companies will be making from this setup)(and if they are ready/preparing their numbers for this type of business)

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#499

Post by agumonkey »

alexryan wrote: post #492
uptownfunk wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what, I may get downvoted for this, but my take is you just can't stop these guys. They'll do whatever it takes to win. I probably spend around $2,000 USD on uber trips per month. And frankly, as much disturbing stuff I hear about these guys, Uber beats the heck out of renting a car in a snowy area (especially after having taken a red-eye to a client site). It also beats the crap out of taking a cab in most…

I too was very reluctant to let go of uber for the same reasons. It's difficult to let go of what is clearly an outstanding product. I also have mixed feelings about Kalanick. I love how bold and aggressive he has been in going to war with ossified privilege and wish that more entrepreneurs had his balls. But when I read Susan’s blog, I thought to myself “this cannot go unpunished.” The toxic culture has to be correc…

An outstanding product that seems unsustainable (I dont know, just reusing the average theory about Uber bubble) seems a lot like a drug. It accelerates everything, but it dries up it's own soil in the process.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#500

Post by UweSchmidt »

uptownfunk wrote: post #477
harryh wrote: post #29

Uber passengers only pay 41% of the cost of trips, with investor capital making up the difference FWIW this assertion (which isn't really core to the central thesis of the post, but still) is wrong. That number comes from https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/12/01/2180647/the-taxi-unic... but the author of that story misread the data. Uber only counts their cut as revenue not the full cost of the ride. Despite this repet…

You know what, I may get downvoted for this, but my take is you just can't stop these guys. They'll do whatever it takes to win. I probably spend around $2,000 USD on uber trips per month. And frankly, as much disturbing stuff I hear about these guys, Uber beats the heck out of renting a car in a snowy area (especially after having taken a red-eye to a client site). It also beats the crap out of taking a cab in most…

I'm curious how one would spend $2000 on uber per month? For what group of people would that be typical?
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