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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#151

Post by vidarh »

untog wrote: post #141
vidarh wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want to leave too! There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it. Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

London independence is more likely to be used as leverage for more devolution than to actually achieve independence. Sadiq Khan has already brought it up in support of devolution of more powers to London.

But any kind of devolution for London that makes much difference will end up increasing divisions, and increase the odds the UK fractures further. I have a hard time picturing a UK 30 years from now without imagining a Westminster that has devolved away most of its powers.

Even then, I suspect Scotland will still leave sooner or later, and possibly Northern Ireland too.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#152

Post by vidarh »

sambeau wrote: post #149
untog wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it. Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

Total collapse of the UK is looking quite possible. - Scotland is likely to go (despite what the polls say right now) - Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland - God knows what Wales is going to do

Gibraltar will be courted like crazy by Spain given the massive Remain majority and Brexit uncertainty...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#153

Post by cstross »

jankotek wrote: post #98
pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense. Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

Scotland has about the same population as Norway or Ireland — 5.4 million — not Montenegro (0.62 million). GDP on the order of US $245Bn, 40-50 times higher than Montenegro. (And, geographically, 70% of the land area of England).

Politely, you might want to check your assumptions: I submit that if Norway can run a currency, or Ireland (which joined the Euro after running its own free-floating currency for multiple decades) then Scotland should be able to.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#154

Post by pbhjpbhj »

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Aside: It interests me that you sign yourself as English and call yourself a unionist. I'm British by nationality through official designation and consider all of the UK to be my home country.

Also the English-Welsh alliance. The counties that we call Wales have been annexed to the lands of the English Crown, as were Yorkshire or Cornwall (say), for a millennium or so. It saddens me that this has to be thought of as an alliance - by a unionist - when in fact they're simply arbitrary groups of counties in a single kingdom.

Segregationists, nationalist, protectionists, or whatever, appear to be winning the battle in pitching each of us against the others rather than us [humankind] uniting as people towards mutual good.

That said I agree with your sentiment, why would those Brits in Scotland sit on the sinking ship when offered a place back on dry-land with their fellow Europeans.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#155

Post by cstross »

JamesMcMinn wrote: post #147
Someone1234 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

There are almost continual attacks on Sturgeon from Unionists in Scotland (and from England) - read any of the comment sections on the BBC (it doesn't even have to be about Scotland...) and you'll see a lot of hate for her - everything from claims that she's making a power grab for herself, to calling her one of the krankies. It's a sad state of affairs. Having said that, I think most people would agree she's one of…

Please note that the BBC is a UK-wide broadcaster, and takes comments from everyone — anecdotally, a lot of the anti-Sturgeon comments on twitter, reddit, etcetera[1] come from English nationalists. Scotland-bashing has never really gone out of fashion in England and there's been a marked upswing in its acceptability since the Brexit referendum[2].

[1] I avoid the BBC comments like the plague, for the same reason I avoid the Daily Mail.

[2] I was born and grew up in England; I've lived in Scotland for the past 22 years.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#157

Post by cmdkeen »

falsedan wrote: post #134
cmdkeen wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those banks also have access to the Bank of England as a lender of last resort and the international market's backing for the UK's current economic policy. Scotland has a fairly developed financial sector, the currency issue is a lot more complicated than "pick one". Pegging your currency to another when you don't have the fundamentals to match it tends to be of interest to George Soros, especially when you don't hav…

> Those banks also have access to the Bank of England as a lender of last resort Can you imagine a future where the independent Scottish government could arrange a similar deal with another financial institution, to cover them until ECB took on the role? > Pegging your currency to another when you don't have the fundamentals to match it tends to be of interest to George Soros When was Black Wednesday for Montenegro?

Given that the European Central Bank doesn't act as a lender of last resort for individual banks (and really doesn't like being for the Eurozone, cf Greece) it isn't going to step in to cover Scotland. So you're either looking at another Government or perhaps one of the massive re-insurers, can you imagine what the insurance premiums would be on that arrangement?

The much more likely alternative is that the Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank move their HQ to London. Standard Life (and therefore Aberdeen Asset Management) probably as well. Not all their staff will move, but their profits will and some highly paid staff will go. That will in turn have an impact on the nascent FinTech sector.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#158

Post by ruairidhwm »

lessisntmore wrote: post #113
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Can you elaborate on why England is a sinking ship? I ask because you're not the first person I've heard say that, but apart from a referendum 6 months ago, what has changed?

I think the view the pound losing 20% of its value, large-scale cuts to social spending and the economic effects of Brexit yet to be felt create a sense of worry about England's financial future. Also the increase in racist attacks, xenophobia etc.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#159

Post by JamesMcMinn »

krona wrote: post #129
Someone1234 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake... From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.

It's probably worth noting that the Scotsman has historically backed the Union and their audience are very pro-union, and generally pro conservative.

As I understand it, the poll which they based that article on didn't even ask the same question for each of the leaders, so the final results can't be seriously compared.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#160

Post by rwmj »

sambeau wrote: post #146
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Disclaimer: I'm a child of English parents who was born in Wales but grew up in Scotland. I have Scottish and English children, in-laws and cousins. I have a family home in Scotland but I currently live in England. My children live in England and Scotland. Some of us live in Italy. What a fucking mess of a total fucking disaster. None of this needed to happen and it's a total nightmare for me and my family. If this g…

Part of the hippocratic oath is "first do no harm". We could usefully extend that to politicians. The UK government has, in 7 or 2 years depending on how you count, set the UK on a path to destruction -- and it was all very predictable.
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