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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#131

Post by drzaiusapelord »

pjc50 wrote: post #119
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the shared currency and having a land border with other EU…

> UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) Not 5th any more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overta... (yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)

Looks like India's recent growth have edged them out, but I just want to point out that's why, not because the UK is falling. Its just India is, finally, catching up to the rest of the world. This is good news for India and doesn't take away from the UK. Also, remember we're talking about an economy of merely 65m people that chimes in at 6th.

UK GDP growth fits in at almost 2% which is where the USA sits at as well and typical of later-stage capitalist countries. EU darling and once economic powerhouse France is at .3%. Spain is only recently getting out of negative growth, for comparison.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#132

Post by vidarh »

krona wrote: post #101
pjc50 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

> Forced by whom Forced by currency speculators. New currencies are always strained, and given an independent Scotland would be close to bankruptcy anyway, a fully-pegged currency would be (how do I say this) difficult.

You're talking pegging, but my earlier comment was about keeping GBP as the official currency. The two are separate options.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#133

Post by MagnumOpus »

Someone1234 wrote: post #105
krona wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

There was an IPSOSmori survey to that tune in mid-September. It was contradicted by a following YouGov poll in November where Sturgeon was seen as doing better.

And of course "doing well in her job" doesn't matter much if 38% of Scots vote SNP vs 16% Tory voters (from the Yougov survey).

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#134

Post by falsedan »

cmdkeen wrote: post #124
falsedan wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scotland already has three banks issuing their own bank notes (backed by GBP on deposit in their vaults). Independence wouldn't change that, except that the names on the notes would have to be changed from Pounds Stirling.

Those banks also have access to the Bank of England as a lender of last resort and the international market's backing for the UK's current economic policy. Scotland has a fairly developed financial sector, the currency issue is a lot more complicated than "pick one". Pegging your currency to another when you don't have the fundamentals to match it tends to be of interest to George Soros, especially when you don't hav…

> Those banks also have access to the Bank of England as a lender of last resort

Can you imagine a future where the independent Scottish government could arrange a similar deal with another financial institution, to cover them until ECB took on the role?

> Pegging your currency to another when you don't have the fundamentals to match it tends to be of interest to George Soros

When was Black Wednesday for Montenegro?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#135

Post by matthewmacleod »

wjoe wrote: post #118
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

>My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum. Previously they said that if the UK left the EU, and Scotland left the UK, they could take on the UK's EU membership. This seems to be what they're aiming for wit…

To confirm, I don't think there's any real belief in the party or the wider independence movement that Scotland would somehow 'inherit' the UK's EU membership. The idea seems to rather be along the lines of negotiating fast-track entry into the EU. It's possible that this won't happen, but on the other hand it's worth noting that Scotland is already subject to EU rules and compliance is a much less complex issue that for a country which is entirely outside the EU.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#136

Post by vixen99 »

timthelion wrote: post #78
a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Is SNP racist? I honestly don't know. But it seems staying in Europe would suggest a pro-imigrant stance.

Last I heard, Scotland would have to join the queue of applicants to be considered as a new EU member and no one in Brussels (definitely anti-nationalistic) wanted to encourage Scotland in this move. Spain would undoubtedly veto this given their strong stance against Catalan independence. They could be out in the cold.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#137

Post by df3 »

wjoe wrote: post #118
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

>My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum. Previously they said that if the UK left the EU, and Scotland left the UK, they could take on the UK's EU membership. This seems to be what they're aiming for wit…

Couldn't a speedy entry process be negotiated?

My guess though is that the EU won't be keen on the UK splitting up and thus won't encourage it by providing Scotland a quick ascension.

This is also a wonderful bargaining chip for the EU to play against Theresa May in negotiating the terms of the UK's exit.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#138

Post by matthewmacleod »

krona wrote: post #97
planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

Current thought within the SNP is moving towards building an economic case for independence which is not dependent on North Sea oil revenue. That reliance was seen as a weakness in the previous campaign, and there is awareness of that within the party.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#139

Post by cmdkeen »

vidarh wrote: post #58
andy_ppp wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.

They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.

As I've said above they won't act as lender of last resort and they won't set monetary policy with regard to the needs of Scotland. A currency peg can be broken, though it is embarrassing and usually very expensive during the period you try and defend it - see "Black Wednesday".

Sticking with Sterling wouldn't even allow the option of crashing out of the monetary peg if needs be. I think you'd see an exodus of financial institutions' head offices down to London. An independent Scotland simply couldn't afford to bail out a large institution in Sterling, or even if it let banks fail couldn't afford the economic hit because its debts would be denominated in Sterling. Iceland was able to devalue by 60%, Greece wasn't able to.

The point of the currency debate is that it has consequences with whichever choice is taken. Separately applying to join the EU saying "yes I know I have to join the Euro, but I'm not actually going to do that" isn't the best strategy in the book. France may get to pull that kind of thing, but they're already in the tent.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#140

Post by timthelion »

falsedan wrote: post #121
timthelion wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is SNP racist? I honestly don't know. But it seems staying in Europe would suggest a pro-imigrant stance.

> Is SNP racist? Some people see the SNP's strong desire to separate from Westminster as anti-English.

Oh the poor English :(

technically that would be sectarian and not racist, as both Scotts and English bellong to the same race.

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