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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#111

Post by drzaiusapelord »

edblarney wrote: post #50
planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted.

I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the shared currency and having a land border with other EU nations, its questionable if the benefits are worth it. At least, they come with liabilities.

I certainly see the various pro EU political argument at work here and many have validity, but the economic one is fairly weak sauce. If anything, the UK has a stronger negotiation position as its own entity, assuming they play their cards right. If Scotland wants to go independent then fine, but using brexit as an excuse is very questionable.

>even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists.

I wonder how many separatists are being honeydicked by Russia. Russia has been funding separatists and far-right political parties in the West for its own gain for quite some time now. Perhaps people are starting to see through their ultra-tailored Facbook newsfeed, hysterical yellow journalism, legitimately fake news, and other biased media. I suspect the Trump win the US is showing people that yes, an electorate can go crazy with outsiders and extremist policies, but that doesn't mean that's actually good for the electorate.

Ignoring Spain's own separatist fears, the EU members probably are fairly wary of any separatist talk right now, especially after seeing what happened in Crimea, and don't want to encourage it and certainly don't want to signal that separatism is a quick way to EU membership. Not to mention NATO membership, are the Scots ready to invest 2% of their GDP into defense (nearby $4bn)? We've probably moved towards an anti-separatist attitude in the West for the foreseeable future due to recent events. According to the guardian, the yes/no spread is the same was it was in 2014, so the idea that Scotland has become more separatist is questionable:

Between August and December last year we polled over 3,000 Scottish adults and found yes to Scottish independence on 46% and no on 54% – just a fraction different from the result two years earlier.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#112

Post by falsedan »

Someone1234 wrote: post #105
krona wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#113

Post by lessisntmore »

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Can you elaborate on why England is a sinking ship? I ask because you're not the first person I've heard say that, but apart from a referendum 6 months ago, what has changed?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#114

Post by deadbunny »

nailer wrote: post #39
krona wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said entirely the opposite on the BBC this morning.

Yes, this is Corbyn. He was also simultaneously for and against Brexit.

Because it's a rather complex issue that was boiled down to in/out. I voted to remain in the end but I can certainly see a lot of the arguments from the leave folks.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#115

Post by MagnumOpus »

jankotek wrote: post #98
pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense. Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

* The Scottish economy is about 50x larger than Montenegro, so "fairly small" is relative. Similar-sized Denmark, Sweden and Norway have their own currency, let alone tiny Iceland.

* The EU and ECB aren't particularly happy that Montenegro is using the Euro without being a member anyway...(see your wiki link)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#116

Post by RobertoG »

pjc50 wrote: post #89
londons_explore wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though. The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.

> would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

To allow other countries to decide you monetary policy is courting disaster.

"strongly discourage" is as easy as not accepting payment tax in pounds.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#117

Post by [deleted] »

krona wrote: post #101
pjc50 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

> Forced by whom Forced by currency speculators. New currencies are always strained, and given an independent Scotland would be close to bankruptcy anyway, a fully-pegged currency would be (how do I say this) difficult.

[deleted]

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#118

Post by wjoe »

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

>My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum.

Previously they said that if the UK left the EU, and Scotland left the UK, they could take on the UK's EU membership. This seems to be what they're aiming for with saying they want the referendum before the Brexit process is complete.

That said, it's never been confirmed that would actually be allowed, and with the UK government likely to trigger Article 50 this month, I'm not sure the door is even open for that. And given the EU's fairly strict and slow entry process, as you say, Scotland could be left outside of both unions for many years. I'm not sure if they'd even satisfy the EU's economic requirements on their own.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#119

Post by pjc50 »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #111
edblarney wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the shared currency and having a land border with other EU…

> UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world)

Not 5th any more:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overta...

(yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#120

Post by Y_Y »

edblarney wrote: post #73
srssays wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2014, 55% of Scots voted to stay. If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not.

" If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not." UK citizens were never given a vote on their 'citizenship' rights in the EU. UK citizens only voted to join the EEC - not the EU. They voted to join what was essentially a 'trade block'. Not a supra-federal state. (UK citizens were not given a vote on the tre…

This post seems to have become a victim of "disagreement downvoting". Whether or not it's correct I think it's a well made point, I wish the moderation system worked more for contribution than consensus.
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