Scotland to seek second independence referendum • Hacker News Board

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#61

Post by m0nty » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:37 PM UTC

richardwhiuk wrote: post #32

m0nty wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be worse than that, at least from the viewpoint of the Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full (and oft-forgot) name: > "For the first time in my life, the prospect of a united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable" http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormon...

Unionist means union between Northern Ireland and England, not a united Ireland - the term for that is Republican.

Yes, that's what I meant. It's coded into their DNA (and their name) to not want the union to disintegrate.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#62

Post by edblarney » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:39 PM UTC

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

The people voted, not Cameron.

One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself.

Nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe: The Dutch are about to give their top choice a pretty hard core 'anti Muslim' guy. The French will have a runoff between Le Pen and probably Macron. The Sweden Democrats are polling at 22%. True Finns have incredible influence. Austrian nationalists lost the presidency by a tiny margin. Brexit. Poland. Danish nationalists form government. Admittedly, Catalonia and Scotland are a different strain.

And a massive division between periphery, core and Eastern Europe on 'existential' issues.

For most of these issue, failure of EU leadership, and hostility and intransigence towards the will of the plebes led to this. It could have been avoided.

'For or Against' - the EU as we know it is dead - it didn't want to adapt - so Europe is adapting underneath it.

I don't think it will break up, but nothing will ever be the same in EU-land.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#63

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:39 PM UTC

srssays wrote: post #52

pjc50 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

In 2014, 55% of Scots voted to stay. If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not.

Yes - but Brexit has shot away the status quo and is proceeding to remove people's free movement and other rights without consensus. Change is now underway whether we want it or not. Scotland has to pick a European future or an increasingly risky looking English future.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#64

Post by fiftyacorn » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:40 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #50

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#65

Post by a_name » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:40 PM UTC

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency.

Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia?

Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#66

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:40 PM UTC

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

[deleted]

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#67

Post by a_name » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:40 PM UTC

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency.

Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia?

Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#68

Post by BEEdwards » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:41 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #26

billpg wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like they ever would have gone away even if the vote was over 60% to remain. They'd have demanded a second referendum (and 3rd and 4th and 5th...) until they got the result they wanted.

As Farage said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."

It was around 52-48 and they have declared it finished business...

Anyone with objections to a slim majority making such a sweeping decision is met with, "leave one, get over it."

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#69

Post by miceeatnicerice » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:43 PM UTC

richardwhiuk wrote: post #32

m0nty wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be worse than that, at least from the viewpoint of the Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full (and oft-forgot) name: > "For the first time in my life, the prospect of a united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable" http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormon...

Unionist means union between Northern Ireland and England, not a united Ireland - the term for that is Republican.

That might have been m0nty's exact point

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#70

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:43 PM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #53

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.

What vidarh said. Country A can use country B's currency without any consent; lots of countries do this. Some of the more volatile countries use dollars unofficially as "hard" currency for big purchases.

I'd expect Scotland to parallel Ireland's history of using the pound and pound-equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_pound