21–30 of 327 posts
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.
If anyone's bluffing in this environment, it has to be Theresa May; the Brexit plan is far less coherent than the plan for an independent Scotland, it's not clear what cards she might hold that have any value, and her ministers are briefing against her in the Times.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...
I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.
> Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country.
Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline.
🇪🇺
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.
Wasn't that the plan for Brexit referendum, to shut UKIP up? That turned out well.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show... "Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"
The last referendum -- the Scots voted to stay in partially to guarantee EU membership. This referendum will be fundamentally different as it means choosing between the EU and UK something the UK forced on Scotland.
What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.
It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wasn't that the plan for Brexit referendum, to shut UKIP up? That turned out well.
Like they ever would have gone away even if the vote was over 60% to remain. They'd have demanded a second referendum (and 3rd and 4th and 5th...) until they got the result they wanted.
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.
You may be right, but keep in mind that the SNP managed to take 58 out of 59 possible seats in a recent election. Calling the bluff of someone who can campaign to a result as good as that... hm...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...
Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend…
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.
Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that. I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.
I can't imagine anything that would increase support for independence more than any hint that we wouldn't be allowed to have another referendum.
[OK - apart from BoJo being PM].
It's funny that Scotland lost its (semi-)independence by trying their own hand at colonialism[1].
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Sel... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme