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Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

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Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#41

Post by skybrian »

zemaj wrote: post #19
prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

But it's all considered in a vacuum. Even though the majority of the population don't understand the problem, this is ok. We have an economic system that benefits those who predict impending needs and place themselves in situations to provide for them. Take a look at the green industry ramping up. In the not too distance future, I think most of us here expect oil replacement to be highly profitable. I disagree with t…

Yes, many people are working on solutions, but I think the point is that for green industry to succeed, growth in energy consumption has to actually stop, and preferably reverse. It's good to be clear about about the goal.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#42

Post by oops »

zemaj wrote: post #19
prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

But it's all considered in a vacuum. Even though the majority of the population don't understand the problem, this is ok. We have an economic system that benefits those who predict impending needs and place themselves in situations to provide for them. Take a look at the green industry ramping up. In the not too distance future, I think most of us here expect oil replacement to be highly profitable. I disagree with t…

Note that he does say in the video that these are not predictions* , and that it's just arithmetic. He goes on to pretty much agree -- in a less specific sense -- with what you've said: "the consequences of the arithmetic will play a major role in shaping our future."

* Except for the petroleum graphs. Video 8/8 1:00-2:00ish.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#43

Post by skybrian »

mistermann wrote: post #31
ihodes wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

Africa is not a barren land, much of Africa is perfect for farming. Much of Africa is not "perfect" for farming, but well good enough. However, if you have external nations bringing you food for free, why the hell would you go through the trouble to grow a crop, it's seriously hard work! And, if you're in the part of Africa where growing crops is not feasible....move?

You realize that this isn't about renting a U-haul, right? It's about traveling, on foot or by public transportation, to somewhere where you don't own any land, don't speak the language, and don't know anyone. In other words, to become a refugee. There are plenty of people like that already, but they tend to move to the cities.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#44

Post by skybrian »

ModelCitizen wrote: post #17

A note on the rest of the series: He spends the remaining time outlining some impending Malthusian catastrophe / peak oil scenario. For a counterpoint, check out anything by Julian Simon.

Actually, he doesn't think much of Julian Simon and says why.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#45

Post by barmstrong »

prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

Certainly a great video.

But one thing I didn't like about the bacteria in the bottle story was that he conveniently switched to 100% growth for that example. And then made it sound like Boulder was in the same position "it's 11:59 in the Boulder valely" etc.

But still his main point it dead on.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#46

Post by chaosmachine »

jluxenberg wrote: post #40

Neat math trick from the video: 70 / x = number of years of constant growth required for a quantity to double given that it grows at x percent The example used in the video: if the price of lift tickets goes up by 7% per year, in 10 years, that price will double. (and actually, the constant 70 is an approximation, the actual constant is ln (2) * 100)

It's also a useful way to tell when your investments will double in value. 5% interest: 70/5 = 14 years to double your money.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#47

Post by crayz »

mistermann wrote: post #33
bryanh wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.

Well, 1 thousand deaths now to achieve self sufficiency, or X deaths later, where x is likely much larger than 1 thousand. Not to mention, why the fuck in this day and age is the west still responsible for African people eating? We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed for where maximum food can be produced, etc etc. It is not a geographical problem, it is a political and cultural p…

We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed...

The entire country of Africa?

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#48

Post by fleitz »

bryanh wrote: post #28
fleitz wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We" won't need to give "them" food aid forever, population growth levels off as wealth increases. Possibly the best thing that could be done for Africa is to end farm subsidies and argicultural tarrifs in the developed world. Here is a great link to the farm subsidies recieved in Manhattan, it's odd how one never notices the wealth of family farms surrounding central park. http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/1…

Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.

The first step to answering that question is to start thinking of Africa as a continent full of individuals rather than through terms like "us" and "them".

Most answers in the affirmative involve a lot of rationalization and dehumanization and in the modern world likely some kind of starvation default swap sold by a financial institution.

We're all individuals sharing this planet. We are not our government(s). (Unless you're a head of state, then maybe)

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#49

Post by abrahamsen »

mhartl wrote: post #37

Before people freak out about exponential growth, please consider John McCarthy's Slogan. (Yes, that John McCarthy; Lisp isn't the only thing he's done.) He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense. http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html Based on reactions to this video (among other things), I'd add Hartl's Counterpoint: Just because you're willing to do arithmetic doesn't mean you're n…

To the point: What seems like exponential growth often turn out to be better described as S-curves.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#50

Post by Luc »

chaosmachine wrote: post #46
jluxenberg wrote: post #40

Neat math trick from the video: 70 / x = number of years of constant growth required for a quantity to double given that it grows at x percent The example used in the video: if the price of lift tickets goes up by 7% per year, in 10 years, that price will double. (and actually, the constant 70 is an approximation, the actual constant is ln (2) * 100)

It's also a useful way to tell when your investments will double in value. 5% interest: 70/5 = 14 years to double your money.

It also works for inflation or other yearly recurring charges. Those small percentages add up quickly - at 3% inflation and 2% charges the value of your investment in today's dollars/euros will halve in 14 years. Yikes!
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