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Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

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Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#31

Post by mistermann »

ihodes wrote: post #4
jackowayed wrote: post #3

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like. "Oh they're starving because they get almost no rain, so that land really shouldn't support anywhere near as many people as are there. Let's give them food aid." 10 years elapse, and say they're getting 7% per year growth thanks to food aid keeping them from s…

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

Africa is not a barren land, much of Africa is perfect for farming. Much of Africa is not "perfect" for farming, but well good enough. However, if you have external nations bringing you food for free, why the hell would you go through the trouble to grow a crop, it's seriously hard work!

And, if you're in the part of Africa where growing crops is not feasible....move?

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#32

Post by wendroid »

ModelCitizen wrote: post #17

A note on the rest of the series: He spends the remaining time outlining some impending Malthusian catastrophe / peak oil scenario. For a counterpoint, check out anything by Julian Simon.

Yeah, JS is pretty good, he's going to win some stuff

http://www.motogp.com/en/riders/profiles/julian+simon

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#33

Post by mistermann »

bryanh wrote: post #28
fleitz wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We" won't need to give "them" food aid forever, population growth levels off as wealth increases. Possibly the best thing that could be done for Africa is to end farm subsidies and argicultural tarrifs in the developed world. Here is a great link to the farm subsidies recieved in Manhattan, it's odd how one never notices the wealth of family farms surrounding central park. http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/1…

Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.

Well, 1 thousand deaths now to achieve self sufficiency, or X deaths later, where x is likely much larger than 1 thousand.

Not to mention, why the fuck in this day and age is the west still responsible for African people eating? We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed for where maximum food can be produced, etc etc. It is not a geographical problem, it is a political and cultural problem.

It seems fairly obvious they can't sort out this problem, so whats the next move?

We can tell them where to grow food, and where not to. We have given them Billions of dollars in aid. What else can you do?

Of course, this is assuming foreign aid exists to achieve what it says it is trying to achieve....I can think of several groups of people that would like to keep Africa in the stone age for the time being.

However, this doesn't dismiss the responsibilities of the leaders and citizens of Africa. All the technology you need is available on eBay, how about some charismatic man rises up and convinces you to get your shit together?

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#34

Post by JoshCole »

Flow wrote: post #5
jackowayed wrote: post #3

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like. "Oh they're starving because they get almost no rain, so that land really shouldn't support anywhere near as many people as are there. Let's give them food aid." 10 years elapse, and say they're getting 7% per year growth thanks to food aid keeping them from s…

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth...

In the video explaining exponential growth it talked about how we would need to abandon many things we deem good in order to avoid over population. This video puts things in less grim terms by pointing out that increasing the average life expectancy reduces the number of children per women.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#35

Post by iamwil »

I haven't gotten back into the habit of watching lectures in a while, but this was one of the best ones I've watched in a long time. Thought it was super cheesy at first, and didn't think I was going to keep watching, but it kept me rapt the entire time.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#36

Post by iamwil »

mistermann wrote: post #31
ihodes wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

Africa is not a barren land, much of Africa is perfect for farming. Much of Africa is not "perfect" for farming, but well good enough. However, if you have external nations bringing you food for free, why the hell would you go through the trouble to grow a crop, it's seriously hard work! And, if you're in the part of Africa where growing crops is not feasible....move?

To add, there are unstable places in parts of Africa with civil wars that displace people into refugee camps where they can't do much farming.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#37

Post by mhartl »

Before people freak out about exponential growth, please consider John McCarthy's Slogan. (Yes, that John McCarthy; Lisp isn't the only thing he's done.)

  He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html

Based on reactions to this video (among other things), I'd add Hartl's Counterpoint:

  Just because you're willing to do arithmetic doesn't 
  mean you're not talking nonsense.
In case you're wondering why you shouldn't freak out, I offer you this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#38

Post by Flow »

JoshCole wrote: post #34
Flow wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth...

In the video explaining exponential growth it talked about how we would need to abandon many things we deem good in order to avoid over population. This video puts things in less grim terms by pointing out that increasing the average life expectancy reduces the number of children per women.

Yes, and I think it's very possible that our energy consumption continues to grow, despite the number of people on Earth stabilizes. What do you think?

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#40

Post by jluxenberg »

Neat math trick from the video:

70 / x = number of years of constant growth required for a quantity to double given that it grows at x percent

The example used in the video: if the price of lift tickets goes up by 7% per year, in 10 years, that price will double.

(and actually, the constant 70 is an approximation, the actual constant is ln (2) * 100)

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