"In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients – again in aggregate – worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund. ” He…
"My calculation, admittedly very rough, is that the search by the elite for superior investment advice has caused it, in aggregate, to waste more than $100 billion over the past decade."
Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
241–250 of 324 posts
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think I'm talking past you -- your previous point was perfectly clear. You literally cannot have active investments if nobody invests with active investors or actively manages their funds themselves. This is tautological. So somebody has to invest with active investors, but Buffett is arguing it should be somebody else and not you. If 99.99% of all assets are locked up in buy-and-hold passive index funds the…
Nobody has to invest money in prop shops for them to provide market inputs. There are some huge proprietary trading firms.
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
Buffett, as an active investor, can outperform the market, while active investors as an aggregate might not. I fail to see any ludicrousness. > Buffett Annual Report is a long form sales letter to persuade people to buy more Berkshire shares. Nonsense. Buffett doesn't care one whit about people buying more Berkshire Hathaway shares. If anything, he wouldn't mind people selling shares and driving the price down to bel…
If active investment were negative-sum in aggregate then society would be better off if there were no active investors at all and everybody would invest in passive index funds instead. Unfortunately you need active investors to keep the market honest, without active investors index funds wouldn't work! Index funds are needed so investment funds don't overcharge their customers, and investment funds are needed to keep…
Thus, investments decisions made within such companies are those that promote their growth (or not).
In this manner, without insider knowledge into the internal decisions those companies make, and thus the ability to judge the viability of their investments, investing in something other than a stock index is much riskier. But the stock market itself can still grow.
The distinction is that investing in "the market" is an arms length investment that occurs well after the good or bad investments that affect the profitability of individual companies have occurred.
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody has to invest money in prop shops for them to provide market inputs. There are some huge proprietary trading firms.
Prop shops still have owners. They are the investors. There is no such thing as an investment without an investor.
Nobody is arguing that you shouldn't start a prop trading firm. The argument is that you shouldn't invest in hedge funds, because passive investment funds outperform them. If you want to make money in active investment, join or form a prop firm.
The broader point would be, the market can probably function based on passive investment and inputs from prop firms, without retail and institutional investors ever needing to engage in active investment. That would also be compatible with the notion that active trading is in general unprofitable because the profit is so aggressively competed out of it.
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#245There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…
Note the positive ton towards immigration. I too found this part interesting.
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
Buffett, as an active investor, can outperform the market, while active investors as an aggregate might not. I fail to see any ludicrousness. > Buffett Annual Report is a long form sales letter to persuade people to buy more Berkshire shares. Nonsense. Buffett doesn't care one whit about people buying more Berkshire Hathaway shares. If anything, he wouldn't mind people selling shares and driving the price down to bel…
If active investment were negative-sum in aggregate then society would be better off if there were no active investors at all and everybody would invest in passive index funds instead. Unfortunately you need active investors to keep the market honest, without active investors index funds wouldn't work! Index funds are needed so investment funds don't overcharge their customers, and investment funds are needed to keep…
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#247Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would argue that index funds make the most sense for most millionaires these days, too. For the most part, if a hedge fund is actually worth investing in (and there are quite a few), only institutions will have the capital to play.
> if a hedge fund is actually worth investing in (and there are quite a few) Apparently it is hard to come up with a collection of 5 of them that would beat the S&P 500 over 10 years. At least Buffett had a hard time finding counterparties for a bet.
Much like other very difficult but not impossible things in life, it is very difficult but not impossible to beat the market for long periods of time. It's fair to say that most people, millionaires included, should go with index funds. But that doesn't mean it's hard to come up with funds that beat the market. They just aren't really available to people without a very high net worth.
Unfortunately the conversation about hedge funds has been dominated by binary thinking, especially since Buffett's wager was publicized. The pendulum has swung so far to the other side that there's not a whole lot of fair discussion about the utility of hedge funds.
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've got a degree in economics as well. There are a few more big ones, including the advent of the joint stock company (or more generally, the ability to effectively pool capital) and the common law, specifically the ability to enforce business contracts. Those two are fundamental.
This is a good point, under the rubric "institutions girdling trust". Quite relevant as a set of innovations in the time when people started having to do business with strangers, particularly ones with different ecological positions. You can imagine having lived in agricultural societies there would be a big question of how exactly you're going to have a business relationship with say a factory owner or delivery comp…
Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you enjoyed that - take the time and get the book compilation of all BH's annual letters to shareholders - starting 1960s to present. Some of the most valuable reading I have done in years - strongly recommend.
Link: https://www.amazon.com/Berkshire-Hathaway-Letters-Shareholde...