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Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

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Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#21
post #4

"In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients – again in aggregate – worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund. ” He…

"My calculation, admittedly very rough, is that the search by the elite for superior investment advice has caused it, in aggregate, to waste more than $100 billion over the past decade."

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#22
post #19
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hedge funds make perfect sense for people who want to hedge their capital in specific ways. A hedge fund doesn't need to outperform the market to deliver tremendous value to their customers. Secondly, every trade has a counterparty. So somebody necessarily has to be at the loser's end of every trade. For every investment fund that makes oversize profits another fund loses money. It all evens out. That doesn't mean it…

With regard to your first sentence, could you give an example of a specific way to hedge capital? I'm not sure I understand.

Suppose you're a business with a lot of positive cash flow, but you also have a lot of exposure to the USD-MXN exchange rate. Maybe you have factories in Mexico but sell to the US, it doesn't matter. In that case you can pay a hedge fund to hedge your money so that if the exchange rate collapses you make enough money on the stock market to compensate, so your business will survive until the exchange rate climbs back.

Most businesses have very high exposure to one section of the market, so wanting to hedge is natural. If your business makes toilet paper you have it easy because no matter what happens demand for your product won't collapse overnight. If you make cars then economic recessions are scary because new car sales will drop like a brick, and you need to hedge.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#23
post #4

"In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients – again in aggregate – worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund. ” He…

I would argue that index funds make the most sense for most millionaires these days, too. For the most part, if a hedge fund is actually worth investing in (and there are quite a few), only institutions will have the capital to play.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#25
post #10
post #4

"In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients – again in aggregate – worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund. ” He…

Hedge funds make perfect sense for people who want to hedge their capital in specific ways. A hedge fund doesn't need to outperform the market to deliver tremendous value to their customers. Secondly, every trade has a counterparty. So somebody necessarily has to be at the loser's end of every trade. For every investment fund that makes oversize profits another fund loses money. It all evens out. That doesn't mean it…

> That doesn't mean it's entirely zero sum, though, because money still flows from bad businesses towards good businesses as a result.

Buffet's point is that it's negative-sum. A gambler might win today, but lose tomorrow, and his counterparty will get the opposite, but the house wins on every transaction. While the players churn, the market makers and rent seekers will drain the system of money, in aggregate.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#27
post #7
post #5

The transparency and humble tone is pretty unique. "Unfortunately, I followed the GEICO purchase by foolishly using Berkshire stock" " It was, nevertheless, a terrible mistake on my part" "Despite that cautious approach, I made one particularly egregious error" I bet you don't find that sort of thing in many other annual shareholder letters.

Sure, but it's easy to be humble when you're essentially an institution. In fact, it's better that way, because it appears honest. It's far harder for an unproven fund manager to admit making egregious mistakes without making his shareholders nervous. Buffett has 50 years of beating the market to soothe stakeholder concerns. Most other managers don't.

I suppose. But, see, for example, the recent Cloudflare issues. They were pretty transparent, but missed big on the "humble" part. I don't think there would have been anything but upside had they gone with a humble approach.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#28

It took me 30 minutes to read the complete letter. It was time well spent. I learned why the property/casualty insurance business has a really good business model. It also reminds me to walk away from deals where the financial fundamentals are wrong, but our competition is eager to sign. And finally, I feel that his humble tone is honest and that he is trying teach by showing his considerations, successes and failure…

Buffet has structured his business to give him permanent advantage. The core of Berkshire Hathaway is the insurance business, GEICO and Berkshire Reinsurance. These companies are very profitable and generate steady cash inflow. His cash is cheaper compared other investors who get leverage using financial sector and must hedge against loss. This is important when times are tough, money is tight and stock valuations are low. When other investors must sell something they own or take expensive loan to buy what they want, Buffet is drowning in cash and looking ways to spend it.

from page 8:

>One reason we were attracted to the P/C business was its financial characteristics: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as claims arising from exposure to asbestos, payments can stretch over many decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their own benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. .... We recently wrote a huge policy that increased float to more than $100 billion

They have $100 billion float. That's incredible.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#29
post #17

There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…

they all represent a net gain for Americans from the barren lands, primitive structures and meager output of 1776. Starting from scratch, America has amassed wealth totaling $90 trillion.

This was a gain that was achieved not by starting from scratch but by stealing lands from indigenous people and forcing Africans to work that land. I'm not sure if you can describe the kidnapping, murder, rape and ultimately genocide of multiple people groups as miraculous, unless one subscribes to the idealogy of manifest destiny.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#30
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With regard to your first sentence, could you give an example of a specific way to hedge capital? I'm not sure I understand.

Suppose you're a business with a lot of positive cash flow, but you also have a lot of exposure to the USD-MXN exchange rate. Maybe you have factories in Mexico but sell to the US, it doesn't matter. In that case you can pay a hedge fund to hedge your money so that if the exchange rate collapses you make enough money on the stock market to compensate, so your business will survive until the exchange rate climbs back.…

>If your business makes toilet paper you have it easy because no matter what happens demand for your product won't collapse overnight.

Until people figure out the magic of bidets!

https://www.amazon.com/Luxe-Bidet-Neo-120-Non-Electric/dp/B0...

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