141–150 of 267 posts
It's fun to read Mark Spiegel's twitter feed. I've never seen someone so desperately try to force a theory. I wonder why some people want to see Tesla fail so badly.
I think often people react really strongly to others liking something or wanting it to succeed. The more people like something, the more others react.
People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…
People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…
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It really does not matter as we could build them today with a lot less effort. It would cost something like $5 billion today and would take ~2,000 people ~5 years. Which is relatively speaking a lot less expensive. Put another way, Bill G could build ~17 of them in his lifetime and not be broke.
But that's besides the point. We are thousands of years in the future from that point, with thousands of years of technological advancements. What would a civilization relatively recently after the loss of that knowledge do? Could they even do it? The point is that technology can be lost. Sure, we may have re-learned the technology in the intervening millennia, but we wouldn't have to re-learn it if it wasn't lost in…
GM + GE + Exxon = $765 billion
Tesla at $45 billion is still just 6% of that market. There's a lot of uncertainty there, so only a small slice of that $765 billion is getting priced into Tesla's stock, but it's enough to make the people comparing to Ford wonder what the heck is going on.
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Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…
> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…
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Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…
I think the strategic direction of Tesla is going to create considerable value in the long term - not just in selling cars, but in the industry dominating direction they seem to be headed. For example, I think of the charger network alone as the future of the gas station, and could be a deciding factor when consumers are considering one brand of electric car vs. another. Self driving technology is another race where…
Once there's an autonomous driver it's really just about the cabin accoutrements.
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Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…
I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company, not a car company (JB and Elon both think of Tesla this way). The car is a battery on wheels, and the battery is the product. They're not trying to be the next BMW, and attempts to value them through this lense will miss the mark.
People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…
I put 100% of my net worth in TSLA when it was trading at $180 a couple months ago http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-to-the-guy-who-in... . I'm already up 40%, and I'm holding (though not adding to it as my net worth grows). Such an obvious, incredible company that Wall Street will undervalue until the end of time. (For the record: I don't recommend doing this. I am in a unique situation where I can own the…
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Uber is probably overvalued. But consider that future Tesla will probably be owning/running a service like Uber. Add to that grid storage, solar power installation (from which it makes interest on loans to the consumer), powerwalls, battery production for other industries (including possibly every other car manufacturer), and whatever else Tesla branches out into once those markets are established.
Like Samsung, which has a fab all the way up to consumer facing phone business? Excessive vertical integration is over-valued, unless you holds a monopoly position in at least one of the component of the vertical.
They're going to own about half of the world's battery production capacity at ~30% reduction in cost per kwh over current production. Plus they're planning three more factories.
Selling core tech to other car companies seems like a lucrative long term move.