Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#131

Post by Eridrus » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:33 PM UTC

leereeves wrote: post #44

bluetomcat wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like the US bailed out Europe during the "external" migrant crisis, caused by inadequate US foreign policy in the Middle East?

The migrant crisis is often attributed to the Syrian Civil War; how was the Syrian Civil War "caused by inadequate US foreign policy in the Middle East"?

There was a lot of opportunity for the US to put an end to Assad, with a lot more credibility then elsewhere in the Middle East, but that was decided more by the US people's reluctance to get into another war.

The result would probably have been as messy as Iraq was initially, but probably not as messy as what is there now.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#132

Post by alkonaut » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:34 PM UTC

tiatia wrote: post #66

fowlerpower wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that any country in the NATO umbrella being hit would lead to the United States retaliating decisively. President trump would be advised by the generals he knows more than that he has to go in front of the American people and let them know why he has to take the actions he is taking. Sending US troops into Europe. Believe me, there is zero doubt, if NATO is hit its game over. W…

"There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that any country in the NATO umbrella being hit would lead to the United States retaliating decisively." How? http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2016/07/how-to-invad... Also, do you know what the UdSSR "ax theory" was? Or the "ed-escalation" strategy of the 90ies? Look at the map. The Baltic states can't be defended. At least not with the military that is there in the mom…

> The Baltic states can't be defended

That's why deterrence is the only thing working. If the US even suggests it might not consider an attack on Latvia the same as an attack on Washington, then there is no deterrent.

As you say, the Baltics can't be defended (at least not longer than 1-2 days) and there is no good strategy with Sweden and Finland outside NATO (Sweden accepts US use of bases - but would they in a crisis if Russia makes clear it will make Sweden a target?).

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#133

Post by quonn » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:35 PM UTC

wsc981 wrote: post #124

quonn wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK was never a very convinced member of the EU, so Brexit is not a good example. But more importantly, the EU is not falling apart, it is merely facing a crisis. A pro-EU US administration could help to save it while Trump will likely accelerate it's decline.

The EU will fall apart, it's only a matter of time. The Euro as a currency is not sustainable and the moment a net paying country moves out of the Euro, the EU will disintegrate for sure. At the moment the Euro is just a mechanism to transfer wealth from the northern countries to the southern countries and to make exports easier for Germany. Greece and Italy would be able to import much less goods from Germany if the…

The Euro is not the same as the EU.

> mechanism to transfer wealth from the northern countries to the southern countries and to make exports easier for Germany

I agree that it works very well for Germany. This, by the way, also implies that the transfer of wealth is not a problem. It is economically reasonable for Germany to pay and the Greek people, for instance, have clearly stated that they want to stay in the Eurozone. Additionally, the Euro can be fixed, it is just currently not politically possible to take the required actions, because the current state of affairs is "good enough". This will change if the Euro is seriously threatened.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#134

Post by bad_user » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:35 PM UTC

jerf wrote: post #96

bad_user wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Brexit campaign was fueled by lies. The real issue is a trend of anti-intellectualism and xenophobia, which I fear we've seen before, triggered by the great depression and a precursor to WWII. It's as if, whenever a financial crisis happens, people go dumb.

That's moving the goalposts. Nothing about what you said makes it the result of Trump's administration. Also, might I just point out the irony of accusing people of being "anti-intellectual" in reaction to the financial crisis that is precisely the one the intellectuals promised us could never possibly happen under their guidance, and were mocking people for even considering it possible right up to the day it happene…

It's not moving the goalposts, I was just noticing the global trend that links Brexit, Trump and possibly other upcoming events like Le Pen.

> the intellectuals promised us could never possibly happen under their guidance, and were mocking people for even considering it possible right up to the day it happened

Well, source please. Not that I don't believe you, but don't remember the deriding or the predictions you're mentioning and it's actually really hard to predict a financial crisis, being dangerous to put a break on the economy based on speculations.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#135

Post by gbog » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #75

richmarr wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they'd want to make significant changes to their political system. The Chinese middle class is already larger than the US middle class (and growing), so they're already going to be the culturally dominant force over the next century. Edit: "they" above being those in power. Obvs there are people in China who want reform.

A reasonably wealthy middle class will take power. Because money is power, and they have most of it. At least that is one way you can view the democratization of the west. The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well.

Depends on what you mean by democratization. If you mean the main part of the country's citizen have the most leverage on country's general guidance by simple weight effect, then yes, and it is probably already the case for China. If you mean "representative political system with elections as done in some Western countries" then maybe this political system should be fixed before asking other people to try it.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#136

Post by RodericDay » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

bad_user wrote: post #88

jerf wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be operating under the belief that the disintegration of the EU started three weeks ago or something? It's been an ongoing saga for years. I mean, Brexit predates Trump, and Brexit itself is the result of years of pressures. I can see why you'd be so confused by the "strategy" if you think Trump is causing it, but he's reacting to it. And my assessment of the situation is the other way around; there's not…

The Brexit campaign was fueled by lies. The real issue is a trend of anti-intellectualism and xenophobia, which I fear we've seen before, triggered by the great depression and a precursor to WWII. It's as if, whenever a financial crisis happens, people go dumb.

I'm a fairly intellectual guy and I'd say that it's fairly disingenuous to point at "anti-intellectualism" and ignore massive inequality and corruption as party in these latest events.

There's plenty of economists running around assuring everyone that Piketty is wrong, inequality doesn't matter, someone being a billionaire doesn't affect someone on welfare who has cheap iPhones, etc. However, I think these defenders of the status quo will be proven wrong. It all rings very hollow.

Anti-intellectualism, xenophobia, inequality. Don't forget that last one. It's the one that puts us liberal techies on the hook too.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#137

Post by ptaipale » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

wobbleblob wrote: post #61

After the round of elections in France and Netherlands this spring, and Germany this summer, Europe may or may not start disintegrating, depending on the outcome. Ms. le Pen may not win this time, but she will one day. A correctly timed scandal or major terrorist attack in the second round may sink her opponent. Moscow, London and Washington are hard at work with her, to make this happen. When she, or someone like he…

Europe is not disintegrating. Europe is just geography.

The European Union might be disintegrating. Why it might be disintegrating is then a more complex thing.

But mostly it's not because of Trump or because of populists or because of Russian influence. It's because those who are building a federal state, United States of Europe, are far too impatient and try to rush it. We are witnessing a backlash. I am myself contributing to a backlash, because EU is doing things it shouldn't.

Yes, I definitely don't want to be in a Russian sphere of influence, but EU isn't acting credibly here. And the White House has little to contribute to current development. It's done by the EU itself by trying to legislate member countries over things I and many others don't want to be legislated at.

Starting from things like whether we are allowed to control who comes to our country and lives here. Or to prepare for and resist to Russian attempts to take over.

EU leaders (Juncker, Schulz and many others) act as if they had an empire, before they actually built it.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#138

Post by aaron-lebo » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:37 PM UTC

rrggrr wrote: post #123

Gustomaximus wrote: post #77

From the article: "It needs to move toward more military integration, which means streamlining procurement. European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.; 20 types of fighter planes compared with just six; and 13 kinds of air-to-air missiles compared with three." While I dont doubt there are efficiencies to be had, I feel they fail to r…

> Russia has good reason to be worried about their defense. The western powers have been doing most of the invading lately. Show me a recent Western intervention that threatens Russia's legitimate security interests. Syria? Perhaps. Aside from that your assertion is unsupported.

Disclaimer: Russia is an authoritarian country and not a shining example of freedom.

That being said....

If you were Russian and you'd spent the last century watching the West undercut you and try and control you at every step (for valid reasons in a lot of cases), you'd be threatened, too.

They went from being a superpower to having 100 million more people than California with the same GDP, while watching their own neighboring states get courted by the West.

Russia isn't justified in what they've done, but put yourself in their shoes. Of course it doesn't help that history has been exceedingly cruel to the Russian people, but it's given them a lot of pride and being dictated to by the US has upset that pride.

If the Russians believed that he US genuinely had their best interests in mind, things might be different.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#139

Post by daxfohl » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:37 PM UTC

yorwba wrote: post #54

daxfohl wrote: post #28

I keep thinking China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system and really start competing against the US as a desired landing spot for US/EU tech/science grads, and other capable/interested young talent. In a play for "world dominance", this could be a prudent non-military move. It would force The West to reconsider the direction it's heading too.

Note that China's attitude towards foreigners is currently in a state where even opening up the job market to recent graduates without work experience (if they have good grades) is big news: http://www.ecns.cn/2017/01-15/241676.shtml AFAIK, previously only "specialists" were granted an employment license.

Yeah, I was thinking about that. Given overpopulation is still a problem there, and given their surfeit of home-grown tech grads, recruiting young talent may not be much of a priority. Still, I think it has to be eventually if they want to be considered world leaders.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#140

Post by euroclydon » Mon, Feb 13, 2017, 2:37 PM UTC

zoner wrote: post #47

spinchange wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The reluctance comes from what I expect to be some chaos as the world shifts to a multi-polar world. As a fellow taxpayer, I just want to point out that another way to look at ROI on our military industrial complex is global stability safe for commerce which leads to things like being the world's reserve currency, having our debt viewed as the safest global asset class, etc. It strikes me as foolhardy to want to giv…

I almost fell off my chair. First of all, every operation the US army did so far was the cause of destabilisation. While the military industry is a huge business alone, it's causing harm everywhere else. The US traded stabile far east for oil (Afghanistan), now they are creating conflict to find a cause to grow the military economy.

If the U.S. military reach and capability were 1/10 of what it is, I think we should expect destabilization to have come from other actors in the last 65 years.