Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 395 posts

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#71

Post by bad_user »

RobertoG wrote: post #22
Scarblac wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the Soviet Union's continuation, and it still has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons and is currently fighting in and occupying a European country. The threat isn't gone at all.

So, what should happen so "the threat" is gone?

Russia is a hegemony. China is a hegemony too. Both will always be threats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemony

And yes, the US is also a threat to Europe and vice versa, except that historically the US culture, business interests and political climate has been aligned with that of Western Europe, hence it makes a lot of sense to have alliances.

IMO the threat of these hegemonies is precisely why EU makes a lot of sense. Divided we'll inevitably fail.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#72

Post by jerf »

wobbleblob wrote: post #61

After the round of elections in France and Netherlands this spring, and Germany this summer, Europe may or may not start disintegrating, depending on the outcome. Ms. le Pen may not win this time, but she will one day. A correctly timed scandal or major terrorist attack in the second round may sink her opponent. Moscow, London and Washington are hard at work with her, to make this happen. When she, or someone like he…

You seem to be operating under the belief that the disintegration of the EU started three weeks ago or something? It's been an ongoing saga for years. I mean, Brexit predates Trump, and Brexit itself is the result of years of pressures.

I can see why you'd be so confused by the "strategy" if you think Trump is causing it, but he's reacting to it. And my assessment of the situation is the other way around; there's nothing Trump could do to stop it even if he wanted to. The explosion is in progress, the very latest I could put the date for that is the Brexit vote (which, again, is itself a result, not a cause), and the only question is who can best surf the aftermath.

The EU is falling apart because of issues within the EU, not because somewhere in the early 2010s the penumbric emanations of the future Trump presidency reached back in time and started whispering in politician's ears.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#73

Post by Grangar »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #32
fowlerpower wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that any country in the NATO umbrella being hit would lead to the United States retaliating decisively. President trump would be advised by the generals he knows more than that he has to go in front of the American people and let them know why he has to take the actions he is taking. Sending US troops into Europe. Believe me, there is zero doubt, if NATO is hit its game over. W…

The history of my country (Poland) tells me that military alliances are worth shit when someone decides to call the bluff. The Second World War started with France and Britain failing to fulfil their obligations when Hitler invaded Poland. Somehow I don't expect NATO troops to show up if Russian forces cross the Polish-Ukrainian border.

It would be a truly scary scenario either way. Vox explored a hypothetical invasion of Estonia [0], basically if military intervention happens both sides would be screwed (given that both sides will stick to their doctrine)

[0] http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8858909/russia-war-flowchart

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#74

Post by daxfohl »

del82 wrote: post #38
daxfohl wrote: post #28

I keep thinking China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system and really start competing against the US as a desired landing spot for US/EU tech/science grads, and other capable/interested young talent. In a play for "world dominance", this could be a prudent non-military move. It would force The West to reconsider the direction it's heading too.

I agree, but it would take more than political reform to make China an attractive landing spot. Pollution and food safety are also big problems, for example, to the extent that my spouse (who is Chinese) and I have discussed and rejected the idea of raising our children in China, independent of qualms about the political system.

Yeah, mine is Malaysian Chinese and we've discussed the same things WRT going there (Singapore notwithstanding).

However China has to start somewhere. If they go all in on renewable energy along with their political changes, then that has the potential to make it an even more attractive landing spot, due both to increased quality of life and to interesting new job opportunities in that field.

(This is actually the outcome I'm hoping for, as I'm seeing global warming as the largest threat to humanity right now, and a large-scale challenge to big oil from China is the only thing that'd work before it's too late. The only politically viable way that's going to happen is if it helps win some other zero-sum game such as the competition for worldwide talent. If it works out that way, then it would eventually force the US to reconsider its oil alliances too and maybe we'd all be okay. This is all just somewhat stream-of-consciousness though.)

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#75

Post by BurningFrog »

richmarr wrote: post #35
daxfohl wrote: post #28

I keep thinking China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system and really start competing against the US as a desired landing spot for US/EU tech/science grads, and other capable/interested young talent. In a play for "world dominance", this could be a prudent non-military move. It would force The West to reconsider the direction it's heading too.

I don't think they'd want to make significant changes to their political system. The Chinese middle class is already larger than the US middle class (and growing), so they're already going to be the culturally dominant force over the next century. Edit: "they" above being those in power. Obvs there are people in China who want reform.

A reasonably wealthy middle class will take power. Because money is power, and they have most of it.

At least that is one way you can view the democratization of the west. The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#76

Post by zepto »

markhahn wrote: post #70

The US is just pouting, and it's shameful. We need adults in the room, being thoughtful, pointing out, for instance, that withdrawing is not a form of strength, and only permits other countries (China) to fill the vacuum. The vote for DT was a nihilistic, anti-establishment moment from a demo that wants change but isn't willing to think about what kind of change.

The vote was for the only kind of change on offer.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#77

Post by Gustomaximus »

From the article: "It needs to move toward more military integration, which means streamlining procurement. European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.; 20 types of fighter planes compared with just six; and 13 kinds of air-to-air missiles compared with three."

While I dont doubt there are efficiencies to be had, I feel they fail to recognise diversity . Any of these weapon systems will have pros/cons. The diversity can be a strength.

And the article talks about european NATO spending doesn't cut it... well go look at the stats. UK/France/Italy etc vs Russia spending. Russia is vastly outspent by the NATO forces, almost the same spend via UK and France individually. Who else is this European threat coming from? It hogwash Europe is not militarily self sufficient. Maybe not US style dominant but hardly weak.

It feels to me there is so much 'fear the bear' information being coming out it feels like soft propaganda on the other side building to something. Sure Russia is behaving badly with Ukraine and Georgia. And they deserve international punishment for this, and hopefully pushback at some point. Syria I'm not so convinced Russia are the bad guys. They are supporting a long time ally and stable government while the west is the the one pushing regime change. Do you really think Assads replacement will be an improvements? This is geo-politics, nothing about improving the nation.

Russia has good reason to be worried about their defense. The western powers have been doing most of the invading lately.

End of the day its a shame the people in power create all this. Most of us want to enjoy life and live in our bubble. Don't let the governments let you believe any nation is bad. And take these articles with a pinch of salt. Some extreme minority nationalists/religious nuts aside, people want to get along.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#78

Post by madgar »

knz wrote: post #63
coldtea wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This may be true but the actions of the Trump administration have many allies questioning how reliable the US is. As compared to the actions of the previous administrations, like bombing in eastern Europe, invading several countries, and royally fucking up Middle East etc, while constantly pushing Russia in the corner in cold war like rhetoric (for doing 1/10 of what they did, and in its actual bordering countries…

I'm not sure how this relates to US allies questioning the reliability of the US? Our allies (as a country not necessarily it's population) are usually involved in the same conflict and support the same worldview towards Russia. It's been widely reported that allies are increasingly military spending and reassessing defense strategies after comments/actions by Trump.

Widely reported by fake news! Any and all media with few exceptions* is the enemy of the United States now, of course they say those things.

* InfoWars, RT and Breitbart excluded

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#79

Post by BurningFrog »

grabcocque wrote: post #3

Because, to put it mildly, Europe has always been able to rely on the US bailing it out when it mishandled some internal or external crisis. Now it's worried it may not be able to take that for granted any more, and may have to take responsibility for its own actions. Frankly, that's terrifying for Europe. Trump has forcibly removed our training wheels. That said, NATO's not going anywhere. Theresa May's first action…

Trump publicly affirms a lot of things.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#80

Post by zo1 »

emodendroket wrote: post #64
grabcocque wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's just imagine that a newly-emboldened Putin decides to annex part of another European country, like he got away with over Ukraine. Let's say some Baltic state, like Estonia. Wouldn't you feel safer knowing that country was under the NATO umbrella?

I don't really feel safer knowing the US would go to war with a nuclear power over a bunch of Eastern European republics, no.

We all know how things ended up last time "big" countries decided to honor protection treaties with small nations.
Post reply on HN