The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns • Hacker News Board

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#21

Post by CJefferson » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:45 PM UTC

Xcelerate wrote: post #14

jplasmeier wrote: post #7

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

They're not customizing the stats for you; it's for the average American — i.e., it's not P(shot|jplasmeier), but rather P(shot|American).

Yes, but let's imagine an extreme case... if 1 million people in the US had a 33% chance of being killed by a gun, and everyone else had 0% chance of non-terrorist gun violence, but the chance of a terrorist attack was evenly distributed, it would make sense for 99% of the population to be more afraid of terrorism than guns.

The problem is, that is the world that many people think they live in -- that gun violence is something that happens to "someone else", but terrorism can happen to anyone.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#22

Post by roywiggins » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:45 PM UTC

juskrey wrote: post #15

Terrorism scales, it is fat tailed distribution (9/11 again, anyone?). Cancer, guns and car accidents - no. Article is plain bullshit.

A 9/11 every year still wouldn't make terrorism more dangerous than guns, by my reckoning. That's only a few thousand a year, gun violence kills tens of thousands.

Unless you work in a tall building of course...

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#23

Post by mindcrime » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:46 PM UTC

Being scared of guns is irrational. Being scared of some people with guns is rational. Being scared of terrorism makes about as much sense as being scared of dying from a lightning strike. It could happen, but it's so unlikely there just isn't much point spending any time thinking about it.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#24

Post by iopq » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:50 PM UTC

Xylakant wrote: post #12

jplasmeier wrote: post #7

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

Actually, suicide stats indicate that "I do not intend to kill myself" is not how it works. In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that. Not having the means available increases the survival rate - even small barriers like selling painkillers in smaller boxes show significant reduction in suicide rates. Another considerable fa…

If you don't OWN a gun, which is a choice you can make even if they are legal, then guns don't increase your chance of suicide.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#25

Post by SomeStupidPoint » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:50 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #11

A great example how, based on your readings of the data, you can lie or present any case with statistics... First of all, among the gun deaths there are people that shot themselves, and also people shot in gang shootings and such (where, if you're not in a gang you're not that affected). So the number is somewhat inflated (of course still bigger than terrorism). Second, people fear going into violent neighborhoods wi…

I think you're wrong about point 4. Could you outline such a plan?

As a counter-example: CIA trained operatives with decades of experience and a 20+ person team launching a coordinated attack could only kill 3,000 -- and that was only because of underlying weaknesses in our security policy. The 9/11 attacks were so easy to counter, they didn't even work through one full morning. (By which I mean, 25% of the planes were downed before reaching their targets.) Reinforced cockpit doors and changes in passenger/crew behavior means that a repeated attempt likely would result in 0 deaths.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#26

Post by iopq » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:51 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #11

A great example how, based on your readings of the data, you can lie or present any case with statistics... First of all, among the gun deaths there are people that shot themselves, and also people shot in gang shootings and such (where, if you're not in a gang you're not that affected). So the number is somewhat inflated (of course still bigger than terrorism). Second, people fear going into violent neighborhoods wi…

Another thing is that even if you BAN guns, it would not affect gang shootings because gang members would get guns illegally.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#27

Post by kj01a » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:51 PM UTC

alyandon wrote: post #3

Who do they pick when they conduct these surveys? I don't live my life any differently regardless of the relative threat of terrorism vs vehicle accidents vs any other violent crime vs getting struck by a meteor. Am I really that much of an outlier? Edit: For those that are downvoting me - I live in a large urban area with large urban area related crime problems that actually has had a terrorism related incident. Min…

>Am I really that much of an outlier?

No. Most people just live. They go to work, they go home, they sleep, maybe have a few drinks on the weekends, but their lives are not driven by fear of some nebulous thing like guns or terrorism. As a general rule most people's lives are not affected by the scary things on the news, save for the content of their facebook timelines.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#28

Post by notgoodrobot » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:51 PM UTC

jimmywanger wrote: post #19

Xylakant wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, suicide stats indicate that "I do not intend to kill myself" is not how it works. In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that. Not having the means available increases the survival rate - even small barriers like selling painkillers in smaller boxes show significant reduction in suicide rates. Another considerable fa…

> In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that. Well, in the moment you still do mean to kill yourself.

Is someone killing themselves something that should be included in what people fear? This seems like it might be another issue that can't be easily compared to the fear of terrorism.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#29

Post by IshKebab » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

lwkl wrote: post #18

It's funny I was talking to a friend and she said she's terified when driving through france because of the terrorists. So she drives non stop till she is in spain. And she is so sad about it since she loves france and can't go there anymore. It seemed so out of the world to me, since it never occured to me that I will be the victim of a terrorist attack. And even if: what happens happens. No reason to stop going on…

Your friend is an idiot.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#30

Post by coldtea » Sat, Feb 04, 2017, 5:53 PM UTC

SomeStupidPoint wrote: post #25

coldtea wrote: post #11

A great example how, based on your readings of the data, you can lie or present any case with statistics... First of all, among the gun deaths there are people that shot themselves, and also people shot in gang shootings and such (where, if you're not in a gang you're not that affected). So the number is somewhat inflated (of course still bigger than terrorism). Second, people fear going into violent neighborhoods wi…

I think you're wrong about point 4. Could you outline such a plan? As a counter-example: CIA trained operatives with decades of experience and a 20+ person team launching a coordinated attack could only kill 3,000 -- and that was only because of underlying weaknesses in our security policy. The 9/11 attacks were so easy to counter, they didn't even work through one full morning. (By which I mean, 25% of the planes we…

>I think you're wrong about point 4. Could you outline such a plan? As a counter-example: CIA trained operatives with decades of experience and a 20+ person team launching a coordinated attack could only kill 3,000 -- and that was only because of underlying weaknesses in our security policy.

The attack you mention was mostly meant to be symbolic and grandiose: not to do the most damage numbers-wise.

From bombing a stadium full of people, to gas poisoning the subway, to bringing some deathly strains of a virus (e.g. Ebola etc) to some mass event, the possibilities are endless.

You don't even need to go on atomic bombs and stuff...