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The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

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Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#11
A great example how, based on your readings of the data, you can lie or present any case with statistics...

First of all, among the gun deaths there are people that shot themselves, and also people shot in gang shootings and such (where, if you're not in a gang you're not that affected). So the number is somewhat inflated (of course still bigger than terrorism).

Second, people fear going into violent neighborhoods with gun crime (say Compton at night), a hell of a lot than they fear terrorism. They might agree when asked in polls that "terrorism is a great threat", but they sure as hell as pragmatically more concerned with areas with violent crime, and avoiding them in their day to day lives.

Third, as people in certain places have witnessed, terrorism can be a constant source of death and horror, with multiple incidents per year, or even daily if a country goes sour. Just because it hasn't happened in some place, it doesn't mean it's impossible to happen (e.g. if there's a sizable militant islam population in the US).

Fourth, terrorism can also bring much more horrible outcomes than the regular gun death, even more than a mass shooting. Some crazies can kill literally tens of thousands via some (not that elaborate) plan. And while it might not always be possible to predict or prevent such a thing, one can still fear it (and fear to further stir the conditions that might make it happen).

Fifth, do the people that are OK with guns believe that if there was strict gun control gun related crime would go down? Or do they believe that criminals will be the only ones with access to guns (bought illegally of course)? If the latter's the case, then it makes sense to be OK with guns, as they see them as something they can use to protect themselves against violent crime and that the criminals will have anyway. And of course nobody realistically believes that they'll snap and kill their spouse with that gun (or vise versa -- as it often happens). It's more realistic, in that sense, to fear terrorism than yourself.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#12

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

Actually, suicide stats indicate that "I do not intend to kill myself" is not how it works. In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that. Not having the means available increases the survival rate - even small barriers like selling painkillers in smaller boxes show significant reduction in suicide rates. Another considerable factor are accidents - nobody intends to kill himself in a gun accident either, it just happens. So I think it's quite correct to include those numbers in the risk profile.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#13
post #6
post #2

> (between 2005 and 2015) 301,797 people in the US were shot dead Somewhat misleading, given that most of them shot themselves.

Yeah I would be very interested in seeing what the statistics are without counting suicides as being "shot dead".

From the CDC, .326 * 33,599 or about 10,953 firearm homicide deaths in 2014:

  Firearm—In 2014, 33,599 persons died from firearm injuries
  in the United States (Tables 18 and 19), accounting for
  16.8% of all injury deaths in that year. The age-adjusted
  death rate from firearm injuries (all intents) did not
  change significantly in 2014 from 2013. The two major
  component causes of firearm injury deaths in 2014 were
  suicide (63.5%) and homicide (32.6%). The age-adjusted
  death rate for firearm homicide decreased 2.8%,
  from 3.6 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2014. The rate for firearm
  suicide did not change.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_04.pdf

You should understand that firearm-related injuries will be proportionately worse. Moreover, toddlers kill people at the rate of about 1 per week which is significantly greater than terrorism deaths except for 2001 (2908 with 9/11) and 1995 (171 with Oklahoma City).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/10/14/peopl...

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#14

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

They're not customizing the stats for you; it's for the average American — i.e., it's not P(shot|jplasmeier), but rather P(shot|American).

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#16

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

They're not customizing the stats for you; it's for the average American — i.e., it's not P(shot|jplasmeier), but rather P(shot|American).

Right, but isn't that rather useless? If we knew the actual probability of each individual being killed by guns or terrorists, we could find that neither of these averages would be represented by even a single person.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#17
post #3

Who do they pick when they conduct these surveys? I don't live my life any differently regardless of the relative threat of terrorism vs vehicle accidents vs any other violent crime vs getting struck by a meteor. Am I really that much of an outlier? Edit: For those that are downvoting me - I live in a large urban area with large urban area related crime problems that actually has had a terrorism related incident. Min…

Terrorism is presently a major political issue.

People probably don't live their lives any differently because of it. Many do support shaping government policy around to an extent that is not easily justified by data.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#18
It's funny I was talking to a friend and she said she's terified when driving through france because of the terrorists. So she drives non stop till she is in spain. And she is so sad about it since she loves france and can't go there anymore.

It seemed so out of the world to me, since it never occured to me that I will be the victim of a terrorist attack. And even if: what happens happens. No reason to stop going on with your life.

I have to say the only news I read are tech news. The rest I get from colleagues at lunch. And sometimes I skim through the newspaper and read some articles that really interest me.

Re: The psychology of why we're irrationally more scared of terrorism than guns

#19

> jihadists killed 94 people inside the United States between 2005 and 2015. During that same time period, 301,797 people in the US were shot dead > Americans are more afraid of terrorism than they are of guns, despite the fact that guns are 3,210 times more likely to kill them Er, that's not really how probability works. Sure, it makes some sense but as was pointed out, most of those people shot themselves. Since I…

Actually, suicide stats indicate that "I do not intend to kill myself" is not how it works. In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that. Not having the means available increases the survival rate - even small barriers like selling painkillers in smaller boxes show significant reduction in suicide rates. Another considerable fa…

> In general, suicidal episodes seem to be short and having access to means to kill yourself increases the chance you'll actually do that.

Well, in the moment you still do mean to kill yourself.

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