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Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

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Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#201

Post by Terr_ »

jcfrei wrote: post #154
xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

I have this - admittedly very condescending - theory that a large part of the middle class is still "financially illiterate". Wages are hardly ever discounted for inflation and thus growing wages (in absolute terms) make most people happy. Even if their purchasing power is declining. As long as there is no sharp increase in prices most people won't complain.

I wonder what things would be like if employers were somehow required to adjust pay for inflation by default. I guess they'd just label it a "raise" and take credit.

Heck, I'd be happy if Congress would pass legislation to make the minimum-wage automatically adjusted too.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#202

Post by billions »

Terr_ wrote: post #201
jcfrei wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this - admittedly very condescending - theory that a large part of the middle class is still "financially illiterate". Wages are hardly ever discounted for inflation and thus growing wages (in absolute terms) make most people happy. Even if their purchasing power is declining. As long as there is no sharp increase in prices most people won't complain.

I wonder what things would be like if employers were somehow required to adjust pay for inflation by default . I guess they'd just label it a "raise" and take credit. Heck, I'd be happy if Congress would pass legislation to make the minimum-wage automatically adjusted too.

How about the government stops printing money instead? It would have a similar effect on buying power as your suggestion.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#203

Post by BenoitEssiambre »

oculusthrift wrote: post #186
xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

people have trouble understanding something like, "everything I buy is 10 pct cheaper thanks to globalization" versus "thanks to trumps tarrif's I make 5 pct more". One is direct and noticeable while the other isn't.

Except the average price is fixed to rise by 2% a year (Or rather price of paper money relative to average purchase is fixed to fall 2% a year).

So using your numbers, globalization would have actually raised wages by 10% compared to what they would have been if we didn't have it and a lot of people's job here would consist of making t-shirts in sweat shops.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#204

Post by jimbokun »

xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

I think when this came up in the debates, Trump all but admitted this is just an initial negotiating position and he doesn't expect to have to actually follow through with it.

So will just have to see if other nations call his bluff, and whether or not he will then back down from implementing the tariffs.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#205

Post by MrMundials »

pllbnk wrote: post #65
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

Markets don't crash from one independent event or even a few events. I think history has shown that. However, any event may act as a catalyst for starting a chain reaction for a series of financial events each directly responsible for the following one.

Could not disagree more. You should actually read some history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#206

Post by someguydave »

mjolk wrote: post #134
xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

I'm sorry that I don't have the time to respond to all of your assertions, but I have done a reasonable amount of research on one of the points and figured I'd add my $0.02. > Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically. The United States is a net exporter of agricultural goods[1], where…

Informative comment. I would add that government subsidies for industrial production from China and for agricultural production from the US both distort the global economy.

The simplistic textbook economics case for "free trade" simply doesn't exist in the real world because the underlying assumptions do not hold.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#207

Post by mjolk »

someguydave wrote: post #206
mjolk wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry that I don't have the time to respond to all of your assertions, but I have done a reasonable amount of research on one of the points and figured I'd add my $0.02. > Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically. The United States is a net exporter of agricultural goods[1], where…

Informative comment. I would add that government subsidies for industrial production from China and for agricultural production from the US both distort the global economy. The simplistic textbook economics case for "free trade" simply doesn't exist in the real world because the underlying assumptions do not hold.

Of course, for what it's worth, I wrote my response with those factors (subsidies, no such thing as actual "free trade") in mind.

However, the USA's role in food security for countries that rely on globalist trade structures cannot be overstated -- for the example of China, in the absence of very significant new trade agreements, the US could demand higher prices for its food exports, as their alternative would be reverting to far less profitable industries.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#208

Post by Terr_ »

billions wrote: post #202
Terr_ wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what things would be like if employers were somehow required to adjust pay for inflation by default . I guess they'd just label it a "raise" and take credit. Heck, I'd be happy if Congress would pass legislation to make the minimum-wage automatically adjusted too.

How about the government stops printing money instead? It would have a similar effect on buying power as your suggestion.

That's a little reductive -- there's always going to be some inflation (or deflation) over time, because there's no instant accurate measure of "how much value exists."

So making mistakes in inevitable, and it's safer to err towards inflation than deflation.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#209

Post by nrjdhsbsid »

sgustard wrote: post #110
nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

He's already threatened businesses with penalties if they build plants outside the US. He's going after free trade agreements that help a lot of companies build products more cheaply and access overseas markets. Sure, protectionism may help some businesses avoid competition for a while, but it can't help them in the long run as they become obsolete. This kind of interference in the free market makes it hard to call h…

What he is doing is largely in reponse to increasing protectionism by other countries. Examples:

US "web" companies must now store EU data in Europe. Any foreign company that wants to compete in Europe needs a European office and datacentres now. Good luck getting European customers for a US startup now.

China is notoriously protectionist. They manipulate their currency exchange rate, engage in market dumping to hurt competitors in other countries, require foreign firms to have a Chinese "partner" which is more like a parasite that steals money and IP.

There's many more examples. To a certain degree the US government has a job of protecting US businesses just like it protects it's citizens.

For important resources like steel and rare earth elements, US businesses have been driven out not because it's so expensive but because foreign countries heavily subsidize the industry and create artificially low prices. "Bringing the jobs back" will work but only if the US govt retaliates with import tariffs or subsidies of its own

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#210

Post by nrjdhsbsid »

crisnoble wrote: post #122
crusso wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight. Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but…

Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs, so is in no way pro worker. Employees of the government are workers too. The ACA benefits my wife who was able to quit her job to start a business without worrying about being denied healthcare for her pre-existing condition. The ACA benefits all workers in businesses who now are required to offer healthcare plans which meet a minimum standard. Workers will not benefi…

Federal jobs are a net negative for the economy. Private jobs are funded by profit from selling products. Federal jobs are funded by taking money from everyone to pay for them. Freezing federal hiring should have no short term effect on the economy, long term it will mean less government services but lower taxes.

I heavily support the pre-existing condition clause in the ACA but the rest of it is a clusterfuck. The way it's designed inscentivizes only the riskiest people to join groups and everyone else to go without insurance.

The ACA's "profit model" is also greatly skewed towards overcharging the young and healthy. Our oldest generation is the most wealthy population group and our youngest are reletively one of the poorest in US history... As a young healthy male my insurance cost has gone from $55 to over $300 a month due to the ACA. I recently just ditched insurance because that's too much money to pay for a service I get hardly any benefit from.

It's yet another money siphon built by the boomers to fuck over the mellenials.

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