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Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

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Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#101

Post by SonicSoul »

badloginagain wrote: post #76
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

It takes a long time for economies to correct to a President's actions- on the order of years. It's better to judge a President's effect on the economy at the end of their tenure than at the beginning. It's also been shown that the President has less affect on the economy than people's perception would have them to believe.

Exactly this! so sick of people using this as some kind of proof achievement. All it means is that financial companies (i.e. banks) are expecting deregulation and are bullish on ability to make money in the volatile environment to come. It has no connection to any macro economics that will be impacted by his decisions being made today.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#103

Post by soundwave106 »

xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

From what I understand via articles, a lot of the current rally presumes that the talk of trade wars and tariffs is bluster... and that the rise is due to anticipated decreases in regulation and taxes making it easier for businesses.

It is still very possible that serious talk about major tariffs and trade wars from Trump might cause a US stockmarket wobble, similar to how the FTSE wobbled after Theresa May confirmed her desires for a "hard Brexit". This IMHO is the main angle of Trump's campaign that is potentially very bad for the business climate.

(Of course, there are many factors in a stockmarket's price so who knows. In the long run of course it is best to ignore day-to-day speculation. :) )

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#104

Post by ErikAugust »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

Mainstream financial analysis is junk.

If you knew what a market would do - you wouldn't share it with everyone for free.

You may, however, attempt to manipulate some market through these means.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#105

Post by jonwachob91 »

badloginagain wrote: post #76
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

It takes a long time for economies to correct to a President's actions- on the order of years. It's better to judge a President's effect on the economy at the end of their tenure than at the beginning. It's also been shown that the President has less affect on the economy than people's perception would have them to believe.

>It's also been shown that the President has less affect on the economy than people's perception would have them to believe.

You're thinking pre-Trumponomics. The president causes billions of dollars to disappear into thin air with 140 characters. He has a real and measurable impact on the economy, for good or bad.

>It takes a long time for economies to correct to a President's actions- on the order of years. It's better to judge a President's effect on the economy at the end of their tenure than at the beginning.

I'm not certain you completed your statement... The OP was about "experts" being unable to time the market. If it takes years for the market to correct, even if the underlying assumption about a market crash is correct, you have to time it properly. Otherwise you'll take years of loses to make the same off the crash as someone who placed their bets moments before the crash.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#106

Post by potatosoup »

norea-armozel wrote: post #75
nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

It's more that he's pro-business-he-likes. If you happen to be a company focused on renewable energy or nuclear fusion he's likely to side with old energy companies and try to throw as many regulatory hurdles in front of your ventures to ensure his friends win. All in the name of free market capitalism of course (/s).

Not strictly true, or he wouldn't be working with Elon Mask, for example. [1] However what's certain is that he wants to achieve US independence from Middle Eastern oil so as to stop enriching Saudi princes.

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/new...

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#107

Post by crusso »

crisnoble wrote: post #79
mikeryan wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I think this might generally be correct however he seems to be more vehemently "Pro American Worker" and so far when that collides with his "Pro Business" stance the worker is currently winning. Attempting to get businesses to repatriate jobs is not necessarily a "pro-business" stance.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight.

Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but receive subsidies. So getting rid of it is a decided plus for workers.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#108

Post by potatosoup »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

> Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor

Like what? If anything, more jobs instead of more and more social programs would do a lot to actually get people to a decent livelihood...

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#109

Post by codingdave »

ilamont wrote: post #59

What will happen to the Dow (and other indices) when the first serious geopolitical or financial crisis hits?

It will go down. After that, it will go up again. Then down again. Then up again. Ad nauseum. The market fluctuates. If you want to put money away for the long-term, it makes sense to have some in it. For the short-term, not so much. This is all pretty standard stuff.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#110

Post by sgustard »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

He's already threatened businesses with penalties if they build plants outside the US. He's going after free trade agreements that help a lot of companies build products more cheaply and access overseas markets. Sure, protectionism may help some businesses avoid competition for a while, but it can't help them in the long run as they become obsolete. This kind of interference in the free market makes it hard to call him pro-business.
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