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Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

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Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#181

Post by etangent »

xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

> Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically. The cost of cars will increase. The cost of consumer electronics will increase. The cost of many goods that Americans buy will increase and that will most directly affect the poor.

You're confusing median-income consumers with median-income producers. The latter will benefit from increased prices if the product is made at home, by them.

> Why Trump isn't good for business - Many American companies source their parts from other countries. Increased tariffs and taxes impact their bottom line. Trump wants American companies to hire American and is willing to enforce it. American workers have a higher minimum wage. This also affects the bottom line.

On the other hand, there is now less red tape to get domestic projects done. It goes both ways.

> Why Trump isn't good for the rich - If businesses are impacted then investments should decline, but if you've seen The Big Short, then it's possible that we could just have a fraudulent, unpredictable market instead. The huge tax cut should also benefit the rich, so actually, Trump does seem great for the rich.

Apparently the stock market disagrees about the decline in investment. Fraudulent market is possible under any president.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#182

Post by notpc »

jjawssd wrote: post #132
harryjo wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's see which regulations get cut first. So far, it's not the government contracting regulations. Bonus: when Trump "freezes the size of Federal employment" do you think that will be match by a freeze in contracting, or a boost in crony contracts?

What I learned reading The Art of The Deal is his MO: Trump: "I have a problem (e.g. Wollman Ice Rink) but know nothing about this topic. Who is the best company that makes ice rinks?" Makes a few calls to hockey teams to find this information. Learns the name of the company. Calls CEO of the ice rink company. After 15 mins of conversation, learns that freon-based ice rinks suck the monkey and that brine-based ones l…

These critics don't understand what it means to get things done. It's becoming a meme at this point.

Media for the last year and a half: "Donald Trump will NOT be able to build the wall."

Just now, Donald Trump: "We will start IMMEDIATE CONSTRUCTION of a border wall."

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#183

Post by shagmin »

crusso wrote: post #107
crisnoble wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight. Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but…

I believe ACA mainly benefits people who work but don't make enough to pay for healthcare insurance. Medicaid would be for those who don't work at all (or make way too little).

I think looking at it as a zero sum thing is framing it the wrong way anyway though.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#184

Post by bluGill »

forgetsusername wrote: post #141
mooreds wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This! So this! I wish that we could just drop the Dow entirely and focus on the more modern indices like the S&P. I understand it has historic significance, but let the DOW lie.

> I wish that we could just drop the Dow entirely and focus on the more modern indices like the S&P. I don't get it. Is someone forcing "us" to use the DOW in some manner? It is what it is, use the information how you choose. This reminds me of people who complain about how the BLS calculates specific measures of inflation or unemployment. They list their methodology. Either you find the information important and use…

It is a historic thing. Once (ie the 1950s) calculating the S&P500 took hours - newspapers did it after the market closed for the night and the number was one of the last things put into the paper before printing. The dow could be calculated in a few minutes so radio and TV could report on it. Thus if you were a trader focused mostly on one stock, updates on the dow gave you a picture of the market - if the dow was moving it was a clue that there might be larger economic forces in play that you need to look into so see how it affects your stock.

Today we can calculate all the indexes several times a second. Thus the value of the dow (something easy to calculate) is not important today and we shouldn't use it.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#185

Post by crisnoble »

jakeogh wrote: post #177
crisnoble wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I was trying to say that the current round of executive actions are being taken for businesses and without regards to effects on workers, but you put it more succinctly.

Businesses would like to make their goods as cheap as possible (by using cheap labor outside the US). What he has proposed (tariffs) forces them to build here, hence the jobs are here.

Business would like to make their goods as profitable as possible, they have never shown any willingness to pass on savings to customers.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#186

Post by oculusthrift »

xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

people have trouble understanding something like, "everything I buy is 10 pct cheaper thanks to globalization" versus "thanks to trumps tarrif's I make 5 pct more". One is direct and noticeable while the other isn't.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#187

Post by dibujante »

bdcravens wrote: post #170
dibujante wrote: post #91

There's no real evidence that the President has much of an influence on the economy.

I agree 100%, but for as long as I can remember, presidents have received credit for the state of affairs on their watch, and used that as talking points while campaigning.

Yeah :( It started with Kennedy, if I recall correctly, but it apparently took off and became a standard part of the presidential playbook.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#188

Post by shagmin »

crusso wrote: post #153
cryptoz wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, I wrote out a big answer just above.

You wrote rationalizations for the policies you mentioned, but you didn't address my point that the real world example of the economic dominance of the USA would be evidence that you're incorrect. You'd think that if your policies were good for business, countries that had adopted those policies would be the most economically successful.

Comparing countries with such distinct histories, geography, culture, etc., is futile.

We could very well owe the current dominance of the US due to the unfolding of events in World War 2. Aside from that, there are many countries that could never have the dominance the US has just due to the difference in population alone. An economy based on a domestic market of 300 million people is always going to have some advantages (and disadvantages) compared to one with 3 million people, even if those 3 million people are better off on average in every measurable way.

So many other variables...

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#189

Post by oculusthrift »

stonemetal wrote: post #6
pilom wrote: post #2

So what? The Dow is a terrible indicator of even how well the stock market or the economy as a whole is doing. It is price weighted instead of market cap weighted so smaller companies that released fewer shares at a higher price have more impact on the Dow than larger companies. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/04/508261371/episo...

Alright how about NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit record highs at the same time.

non-inflation adjusted highs which drop out low performers.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#190

Post by jjawssd »

celticninja wrote: post #144
jjawssd wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"3x or 4x more expensive over the long term" And that's where you're wrong. If done right, 3x to 4x more expensive up front and less TCO in the long run.

In software it never works like that. Costs more to build it with contractors and then because you get rid of the contractors support is done by people unfamiliar with the code so support costs more, upgrades cost more because new contractors need time to learn the codebase or the old contractors charge more because they know the codebase.

Fine, but a LOT of the current problems do not revolve around software whatsoever
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