Dow Hits 20000 for First Time • Hacker News Board

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#41

Post by whyileft » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:44 PM UTC

pilom wrote: post #2

So what? The Dow is a terrible indicator of even how well the stock market or the economy as a whole is doing. It is price weighted instead of market cap weighted so smaller companies that released fewer shares at a higher price have more impact on the Dow than larger companies. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/04/508261371/episo...

Especially since people get voted out of office went the major indexes lose significant value. So there is significant political pressure to maintain increases just like there is in residential real estate. I have a hunch outside of extraordinary events we won't see many loses in any indexes going forward.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#42

Post by DrPhish » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #28

tgb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

Irrational market.

Without trying to be snarky, this sounds like a post-hoc rationalization. How do you differentiate between an irrational market and a bad prediction? I'm honestly at a loss

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#43

Post by celticninja » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

notpc wrote: post #23

This is driven by expectations of Trump's deregulatory agenda. He says he's going to cut 75% of regulations. I can't believe this is happening. America is back people.

Depends which 75% of regulations he cuts. If he cuts EPA regulations and there is more pollution as a result of the increase in manufacturing this could result in more deaths in the long run. How about safety regulations get cut so manufacturing gets cheaper but more workers die in manufacturing plants, is that ok?

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#44

Post by mooreds » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

pilom wrote: post #2

So what? The Dow is a terrible indicator of even how well the stock market or the economy as a whole is doing. It is price weighted instead of market cap weighted so smaller companies that released fewer shares at a higher price have more impact on the Dow than larger companies. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/04/508261371/episo...

This! So this!

I wish that we could just drop the Dow entirely and focus on the more modern indices like the S&P. I understand it has historic significance, but let the DOW lie.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#45

Post by mattnewton » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

tgb wrote: post #22

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

My theory is if you have real tradeable info/models that is worth more than ads on a blog you keep your mouth shut until the trade is done.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#46

Post by problems » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:46 PM UTC

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I think we're really yet to see on both these things, markets usually recover from over-reactions quite quickly, so while we did see those immediate slumps, they did recover.

However, in the longer term, the market will adjust to Trump and Brexit accordingly as actual decisions get made and impacts are felt, it's difficult if not impossible to predict what these might be with any degree of accuracy, one could speculate but ultimately there's just too many moving parts.

I'm not sure I'd promote Bogleheads in specific, but the general theme of passive index fund investing is a good one to make. If you don't want to take big risks or pay big fees, that's the way to go - that's what I do at least.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#47

Post by celticninja » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:46 PM UTC

DrPhish wrote: post #42

celticninja wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Irrational market.

Without trying to be snarky, this sounds like a post-hoc rationalization. How do you differentiate between an irrational market and a bad prediction? I'm honestly at a loss

I don't have an answer to that but I bet no one does regardless of whether you are an expert, trader, president or man on the street.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#48

Post by jjawssd » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:46 PM UTC

tgb wrote: post #22

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

The invisible hand supports Trump

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#49

Post by samsonradu » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:48 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #36

SlipperySlope wrote: post #15

Would be great for Republicans if this boom persists through the 2018 midterm elections. When Trump's trade policies take hold there should be a rush to form manufacturing startups to make stuff in the USA for the industrial supply chain, e.g. power cords, circuit boards, paints, etc. I expect these to form in the traditional centers of manufacturing excellence - urban areas where minorities will enjoy relative job p…

Can the US really make power cords cheaper than China or Vietnam? If they add tariffs to imports I'm sure they can but is manufacturing for the domestic market alone enough to create sustainable jobs?

They can't, it's a political statement. It will likely not happen but for a small range of high-value products.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#50

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 4:48 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #36

SlipperySlope wrote: post #15

Would be great for Republicans if this boom persists through the 2018 midterm elections. When Trump's trade policies take hold there should be a rush to form manufacturing startups to make stuff in the USA for the industrial supply chain, e.g. power cords, circuit boards, paints, etc. I expect these to form in the traditional centers of manufacturing excellence - urban areas where minorities will enjoy relative job p…

Can the US really make power cords cheaper than China or Vietnam? If they add tariffs to imports I'm sure they can but is manufacturing for the domestic market alone enough to create sustainable jobs?

[deleted]