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Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

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Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#21

Post by coldtea »

gcp wrote: post #16
tomelders wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is sort of the same sentiment that people have towards things like Bird Flu. It didn't happen, so the experts were wrong, and it was all a load of hot air. But in actual fact a lot of people behind the scenes worked very hard to make sure it didn't become a problem.

Y2K doomsday etc. Wasn't it expected that the markets would rise as soon as uncertainty about Trump started dropping off? Market pricing tries to look ahead.

Was it expected that "uncertainty about Trump would drop off"? And in 1 week or less?

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#22

Post by tgb »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#24

Post by coldtea »

cschneid wrote: post #12

Other people have covered how the Dow is a mediocre stock index. The other half is that 20k doesn't mean anything either. It's just a number calculated by the math-function of the index. The psychology is mildly fun, just like a 50th birthday may be more celebrated than a 49th. Round numbers appeal to us. But 20k dow says nothing more about the state of the economy than the 19.9 dow did a few days ago.

>But 20k dow says nothing more about the state of the economy than the 19.9 dow did a few days ago.

It's not the 20k vs 19.9 it's a) the record high, b) the upward trend.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#25

Post by PJDK »

tomelders wrote: post #14
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

This is sort of the same sentiment that people have towards things like Bird Flu. It didn't happen, so the experts were wrong, and it was all a load of hot air. But in actual fact a lot of people behind the scenes worked very hard to make sure it didn't become a problem.

I don't understand how the analogy stands? The warning was if [Brexit/Trump] then bad market outcome because those things are intrinsically bad. It's not a bug that can be fixed - it's a situation to be analysed.

Not only that but the bad impact was one of the given reasons to not do the thing in the first place. "A Brexit vote might cause some problems but they are fixable" is a pretty different message to "A Brexit vote will cause an instant recession".

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#26

Post by jwilliams »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

With Brexit the pound also dropped significantly. Even if the markets truck along they've been devalued.

The pound dropping has a number of effects (good or bad, it depends on your perspective). It pushed up the market in some areas where the were bargains to be had. It hammered others. It also changed the trade balance of payments

Great in the short term if you're an exporter. Terrible if you're buying a supercomputer, or planning a trip. These sorts of things have a much longer term impact.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#28

Post by celticninja »

tgb wrote: post #22
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

Irrational market.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#29

Post by gcp »

coldtea wrote: post #21
gcp wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Y2K doomsday etc. Wasn't it expected that the markets would rise as soon as uncertainty about Trump started dropping off? Market pricing tries to look ahead.

Was it expected that "uncertainty about Trump would drop off"? And in 1 week or less?

He did make a 100 day plan.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#30

Post by [deleted] »

jfabre wrote: post #17
tomelders wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is sort of the same sentiment that people have towards things like Bird Flu. It didn't happen, so the experts were wrong, and it was all a load of hot air. But in actual fact a lot of people behind the scenes worked very hard to make sure it didn't become a problem.

Who worked behind the scene after the election to make sure that the economy doesn't crash?

[deleted]
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