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Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

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Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#111

Post by erikpukinskis »

jessriedel wrote: post #78
erikpukinskis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The probability of you having significant controlled influence on the fate of the world is much higher than the probability of total meltdown of society necessitating a stockpile of guns and bunkers and your preparations having a significant controlled influence on your experience of it. So no, focusing on the actual problems is actually less foolish than "doomsday prepping".

Significant controlled influence on the world at large that leads back to a detectable benefit you? Not a chance. The probability of societal meltdown is small, but it's larger than any of our individual impacts. Heck, just the risk of meltdown through accidental nuclear war (easily 0.1%/century, and arguably at least 10 or 100 times that) is already large enough. This is a question of altruism, or of whether all of…

Why do you think it is so unlikely that you could do some good in your community that would come back to you in a way that makes your own life more stable?

I am pretty sure there are lots of people in my city who are watching my back because of kindnesses I have extended.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#112

Post by michaelsbradley »

FabHK wrote: post #108
michaelsbradley wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm suggesting that having–constructing a vision of "the end of all things" (or "practically the end..."), and then living–preparing according to that vision, seems to be something human persons are wont to do, whether they are religious or areligious. In the Christian vision, the important thing is to prepare by living a life in correspondence with the double-precept of charity, "love God, love your neighbor" ~ cf.…

Those that are well prepared, or those that belong to a particular religion/denomination?

That's a big topic of discussion, probably best hashed out elsewhere, and I won't pretend to be able to simplify it.

But, for a start, take a look at the verses from the Christian Bible referenced above.

Mat 22:35-40 :: https://www.blueletterbible.org/rsv/mat/22/35/

Mat 25:31-46 :: https://www.blueletterbible.org/rsv/mat/25/31/

Mat 24:1-51 :: https://www.blueletterbible.org/rsv/mat/24/1/

Mat 25:1-30 :: https://www.blueletterbible.org/rsv/mat/25/1/

Rom 2:1-11 :: https://www.blueletterbible.org/rsv/rom/2/1/

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#113

Post by erikpukinskis »

MaxfordAndSons wrote: post #95
erikpukinskis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The probability of you having significant controlled influence on the fate of the world is much higher than the probability of total meltdown of society necessitating a stockpile of guns and bunkers and your preparations having a significant controlled influence on your experience of it. So no, focusing on the actual problems is actually less foolish than "doomsday prepping".

Is there a solid actuarial calculation behind either of the probabilistic claims you're making? Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope you're right and gp is wrong, but I imagine it's pretty hard to decide either way. I think Bill Gates is a flawed example, since he is focused on philanthropic charity, which is unlikely to have a transformative/exponential effect on societal survivability proportionate to the effect hi…

No, it's just intuitive. But at the scale of my city I can at least make up plausible stories about things I do strengthening the social fabric.

I have yet to hear even a vaguely plausible story about how total societal meltdown in California would occur.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#114

Post by arouqa »

arethuza wrote: post #21
arouqa wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the past, they would have founded their own nation with a personal army by now.

Maintaining the loyalty of those you invite to protect you can be a bit tricky - according to one source that's how the Anglo Saxons were invited to what became England to help protect a post Roman society of Britons from attacks from what is now Scotland (Picts and Dalriadic Scots): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_settlement_of_Brit... I'd expect the loyalty to a rich employer would last right up to the po…

There needs to be a sense of shared purpose.

I would think the easiest way would be to start a religious sect, as this would give you non-monetary legitimacy, akin to a modern day Mandate of Heaven or Divine Right of Kings.

Or if religion isn't your flavor, then some type of philosophical/political/national organization. However, I think it works better with religion because of the afterlife component.

It would also be best to get your followers when they're young. So perhaps start an educational fund that helps underprivileged families, with one of the requirements being to study your organization's ideology. Even better would be to fund multiple orphanages and have them run by members of your sect.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#115

Post by jessriedel »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #111
jessriedel wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Significant controlled influence on the world at large that leads back to a detectable benefit you? Not a chance. The probability of societal meltdown is small, but it's larger than any of our individual impacts. Heck, just the risk of meltdown through accidental nuclear war (easily 0.1%/century, and arguably at least 10 or 100 times that) is already large enough. This is a question of altruism, or of whether all of…

Why do you think it is so unlikely that you could do some good in your community that would come back to you in a way that makes your own life more stable? I am pretty sure there are lots of people in my city who are watching my back because of kindnesses I have extended.

We're talking about civilization / the world, not your local community.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#116

Post by Apocryphon »

arouqa wrote: post #114
arethuza wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maintaining the loyalty of those you invite to protect you can be a bit tricky - according to one source that's how the Anglo Saxons were invited to what became England to help protect a post Roman society of Britons from attacks from what is now Scotland (Picts and Dalriadic Scots): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxon_settlement_of_Brit... I'd expect the loyalty to a rich employer would last right up to the po…

There needs to be a sense of shared purpose. I would think the easiest way would be to start a religious sect, as this would give you non-monetary legitimacy, akin to a modern day Mandate of Heaven or Divine Right of Kings. Or if religion isn't your flavor, then some type of philosophical/political/national organization. However, I think it works better with religion because of the afterlife component. It would also…

The Mormons and Pentecostals will inherit the Earth (or at least LA): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13484925

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#117

Post by aaron-lebo »

jseliger wrote: post #31
analogmemory wrote: post #27

I find it curious that people prepare for a "Doomsday" scenario. I can fathom a localized catastrophe like an earthquake, or extreme weather, or even a horrible bomb attack. But the extreme examples seem more related to our entertainment consumption than based on a real reality. I feel like we're more likely to die from old age than anything from space or zombies. Maybe I just can't do the level of paranoia that some…

But the extreme examples seem more related to our entertainment consumption than based on a real reality. It would be interesting to have the same perspective in, say, 1913. In that period virtually no one expected the catastrophe that would become World War I, which led into the catastrophe of WWII. Really, really bad things can happen; because they haven't since 1945 doesn't mean they won't again. The 1913 mindset…

I like your use of historical examples in your post, but I think World War I (or 1913) is an iffy example.

World leaders had known conflict was possible for a long time and had been preparing for it - the build up of alliances both was an example of this and the ultimate cause of war. Conflicts in the Balkans preceded WWI by several years. If you think Trump is crazy try Wilhelm who was widely known as an egomaniac.

The shopkeepers may not have known what was coming but the world leaders certainly did. We don't have anything that could jump start a world war in the same way. In fact, it's more likely that we'd have seen conflict with Russia via Clinton than we would with Trump, and that would be our main threat of nuclear war today. As far as conventional war goes, there's nothing like pre-WWI in place with America being the clear global hegemon. Neither China nor Russia have the military to engage in anything but localized conflicts.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#118

Post by UweSchmidt »

forgetsusername wrote: post #61
UweSchmidt wrote: post #25

Realistically, society can make a comeback from pretty much any conceivable catastrophy. Similarly to the situation in communist countries, where important things were scarce and money was worthless, surviving would depend on cooperation and mutual trust, not on defending your bunker and playing out a Mad Max movie. While self-defense has its place I wonder which attitude would prevail.

> society can make a comeback from pretty much any conceivable catastrophy I agree. Where disaster preparation matters is in that period between "catastrophe" and "recovery". How long before things are normal again? Is that period a week? A month? A year? How bad will it get in between? That's what you need to survive.

"Things get normal again" only if people come out of their bunkers and put away the gun and pick up a shovel and a hammer instead. Build huts, clear the debris and plant seeds, not take the remaining fuel for the helicopter.

If this concept is not clear anymore after too many seasons of Walking Dead then I don't know.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#119

Post by antisthenes »

0xfeba wrote: post #85
lampzzy wrote: post #77

“A group of centi-millionaires and a couple of billionaires were working through end-of-America scenarios and talking about what they’d do. Most said they’ll fire up their planes and take their families to Western ranches or homes in other countries.” One of the guests was skeptical, Dugger said. “He leaned forward and asked, ‘Are you taking your pilot’s family, too? And what about the maintenance guys? If revolution…

Well, it's lower hanging fruit but, if that anecdote is true, it sure sounds like most of those bourgeoisie don't really have a clue what "end-of-America" would really entail. That is, the infrastructure of people that normally do what you pay them to are all going to have different motives. The people in this story are still counting on quite a bit of society to exist to ferry them to their fancy secure locations. W…

> The people in this story are still counting on quite a bit of society to exist to ferry them to their fancy secure locations.

I think if there's going to be any place that a bit of society is left existing after apocalypse will be somewhere in the US, perhaps much closer to where those billionaires reside than they think (so there's no need to run to New Zealand).

I think the better investment would be to literally convert some of your 'paper' wealth to physical means of production of basic goods.

Re: Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich

#120

Post by Frondo »

You know what I wonder?

Who wants to keep on living, in a sheltered compound, for any length of time, if the world around them has collapsed?

Especially if your lifestyle up to then consisted of jet-setting to different locales, eating all kindsa fancy food, listening to DJ sets or seeing Broadway shows.

So you've got your gilded, gunned-all-to-heck compound, but there's no Internet, no culture being produced for you to consume or take part in, nothing left of the day-to-day human experience. Your life is now canned food and worrying about the zombie hordes knocking on your door.

What, at the end of the day, is the point of living?

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