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The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

nytimes.com

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Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#61
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can imagine how this would be spun if "evil Hillary" was found to be targeting people with "dark posts". You do realise this article is exactly that kind of post right? Have a look at who wrote it, which foundation funds his fellowship, who created that foundation, and which candidate that billionaire donated funds to and supported. We are all but pawns in the games played by these billionaires. Edit: also, regar…

That you are repeating this all over the thread doesn't make it a fact. Sure, if you start with the lens that everything is controlled behind the scenes by shady billionaire puppet masters, then this fits in with that view. But that's just how all the other conspiracy theorists do it, too: hold fast to a predetermined conclusion, highlighting whatever situations you can grab ahold of that look like they fit.

How is this different from "everything Trump is doing is an evil Russian conspiracy" claim that most media seems to be pushing these days? E.g. check out the front page of r/politics. I'm sure Trump will suck or fail in many ways (as all elected leaders do), but we've long time ago lost objectivity.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That you are repeating this all over the thread doesn't make it a fact. Sure, if you start with the lens that everything is controlled behind the scenes by shady billionaire puppet masters, then this fits in with that view. But that's just how all the other conspiracy theorists do it, too: hold fast to a predetermined conclusion, highlighting whatever situations you can grab ahold of that look like they fit.

How is this different from "everything Trump is doing is an evil Russian conspiracy" claim that most media seems to be pushing these days? E.g. check out the front page of r/politics. I'm sure Trump will suck or fail in many ways (as all elected leaders do), but we've long time ago lost objectivity.

It isn't, necessarily. Why does it have to be? The fact that those opposed to Trump also think poorly at times doesn't excuse poor thinking elsewhere.

That said, I just went over to /r/politics and saw zero Russia stories on the front page.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#63
post #57
post #56

And yet for all their magic, they were just as wrong about the outcome of the election: You might think from a casual reading of the Cambridge Analytica press release that they predicted the outcome of the election. They did not. A company spokesman called reporters before election day to say that Trump had only a 20 per cent chance of winning. Source: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-cruncher...

I'm not sure I get this logic. If I told someone they had a 16.6% chance of rolling a die and getting a 6, and then they proceed to roll the die and get a 6, would you laugh and tell me that I was wrong?

I get your point but that's not a fair comparison because there were 2 choices, not 6.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#64
post #10

I'm not impressed. Did anyone notice that Cambridge Analytics did not work for Ted Cruz? I mean he did win Texas and the great plains states, but those were his most-winnable locations from the beginning due to his consistent conservatism and other nominees dropping out. He even lost the south, which should have been his other target, presumably due to being off-wavelength with southern voters, something the analytic…

1. There are many degrees between "didn't work at all" and "worked so well he became predident".

2. Cruz was an establishment candidate. This electorate wanted an outsider.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#65
post #56

And yet for all their magic, they were just as wrong about the outcome of the election: You might think from a casual reading of the Cambridge Analytica press release that they predicted the outcome of the election. They did not. A company spokesman called reporters before election day to say that Trump had only a 20 per cent chance of winning. Source: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-cruncher...

Analysis is useless if it isn't right each and very time, got it.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#66
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I get this logic. If I told someone they had a 16.6% chance of rolling a die and getting a 6, and then they proceed to roll the die and get a 6, would you laugh and tell me that I was wrong?

I get your point but that's not a fair comparison because there were 2 choices, not 6.

Ok. If I told you you had 80% chance of flipping a coin to a head and you got a tail, would you say I couldn't predict things ?

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#67
post #57
post #56

And yet for all their magic, they were just as wrong about the outcome of the election: You might think from a casual reading of the Cambridge Analytica press release that they predicted the outcome of the election. They did not. A company spokesman called reporters before election day to say that Trump had only a 20 per cent chance of winning. Source: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-cruncher...

I'm not sure I get this logic. If I told someone they had a 16.6% chance of rolling a die and getting a 6, and then they proceed to roll the die and get a 6, would you laugh and tell me that I was wrong?

I think many people would, yes. Which is frightening.

I just read an anecdote about Sid Meier dealing with this in the Civilization games in Michael Lewis' Undoing Project: people couldn't stand losing battles of 33% 3 times in a row.

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#68
post #56

And yet for all their magic, they were just as wrong about the outcome of the election: You might think from a casual reading of the Cambridge Analytica press release that they predicted the outcome of the election. They did not. A company spokesman called reporters before election day to say that Trump had only a 20 per cent chance of winning. Source: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-cruncher...

How does Trump winning prove he had more than a 20% chance of winning?

Re: The Secret Agenda of a Facebook Quiz

#69
post #18
post #10

I'm not impressed. Did anyone notice that Cambridge Analytics did not work for Ted Cruz? I mean he did win Texas and the great plains states, but those were his most-winnable locations from the beginning due to his consistent conservatism and other nominees dropping out. He even lost the south, which should have been his other target, presumably due to being off-wavelength with southern voters, something the analytic…

I imagine we'd be equally unimpressed with other early tech. imho, our concern should be of an extrapolative nature. we can guess where this will be in 5 or 10 years, nevermind Ted Cruz' future electoral successes. and we know how easy people are to psychologically "nudge". (sorry for assuming our agreement there)

> and we know how easy people are to psychologically "nudge"

How easy? I thought "Nudge theory" was beginning to unravel under the burden of empirical evidence?

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